At the end of each year, the demand for pork is at its highest, and every household prepares its ingredients for the New Year. It stands to reason that pork at this time should be rising. But now the actual situation is that pig prices continue to be low. From the data, it can be seen that pig prices have fallen into the historical bottom range. Affected by this, listed pig companies are likely to usher in the fourth consecutive quarter of losses this year, and there is a rare "loss year" phenomenon in the pig breeding industry.
In the market, the ** change caused by the continuous fluctuating change in the supply and demand of pork is called the pig cycle. The pig cycle will bring the problem of "high prices hurt the people, and low prices hurt farmers": that is, in the first period, consumers are affected by the highest price and have to reduce the demand for pork, which in turn leads to the low price period, farmers are affected by low prices, and the reduction of pig breeding leads to the decline of pork ** resulting in a shortage, which in turn leads to **again**. Therefore, the cyclical trajectory of the "pig cycle" is generally: high meat price - large increase in sow inventory - increase in hogs - meat price ** - mass elimination of sows - decrease in pigs - meat price**.
The production cycle of reproductive pigs is long, and it is difficult to intervene on the way, coupled with external influences, they will fall into a predicament. Most pig farmers turned into a slight loss from a small profit in September. However, the cost of leading breeding enterprises is significantly reduced, and they can make profits in the season when the whole industry is losing money.
So can next year's pork ** usher in a turnaround?
Industry experts said that due to abundant supply, they are not very optimistic about the first half of next year. Considering that the current pig ** is still sufficient, it is expected that the pig price before the year may be difficult to return to the profitability level, and the pig price is expected to remain in a downturn after the year, which is expected to drive the industry's production capacity to accelerate significantly, and the cycle inflection point may appear next year.