Real Estate Market Shifts**: There may be 3 shifts in China.
Preface. In recent years, China's real estate market has seen a decline in sales area, increased difficulty in second-hand housing transactions, and housing prices. According to the data, in the first 10 months of this year, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 22% year-on-year3%, while at the beginning of September this year, the number of second-hand housing listings in 13 key cities across the country increased by 25% year-on-year. As the property market continues to decline, some industry experts** believe that there are three major changes that could occur in China from 2024 onwards.
Speed up the adjustment of the industrial structure.
If the trend of real estate market adjustment cannot be reversed, we are likely to accelerate the adjustment of the industrial structure. This means that we will gradually reduce our dependence on the real estate industry and move to high-end industries and high-tech fields. Just as Japan quickly entered the animation industry, new materials industry and automobile industry after the real estate bubble burst in the 90s of the last century, we will also seek new breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing and high-tech fields and find new impetus for economic growth. In fact, relying on the real estate industry to drive rapid economic growth is unsustainable, and adjusting the industrial structure is an inevitable direction of development.
From increasing investment in scientific and technological research and development, to promoting the development of high-tech enterprises, to encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship, a series of support policies can be introduced to guide the transformation and upgrading of enterprises and the development of cutting-edge industries. In addition, it is also possible to strengthen higher education, train talents, and improve the skill level of high-quality laborers, so as to provide strong support for the adjustment of the industrial structure. Through the adjustment of industrial structure, we should get rid of excessive dependence on the real estate industry and achieve sustainable economic development.
Accelerate the rollout of subsidized housing to the market.
As the real estate market adjusts, China's leadership has announced that it will launch a new round of housing reform, which will include stepping up the construction of affordable housing. It is expected that 6 million affordable housing units will be rolled out over the next five years, piloted in 35 cities with populations of more than 3 million. This means that in the future, wealthy people can choose to buy commercial housing, while low- and middle-income groups can apply to buy affordable housing to meet the housing needs of different groups.
The price of affordable housing will be determined by the market, and no more intervention will be made. It should be noted that the ** of affordable housing will be far lower than that of the surrounding commercial housing, and the affordable housing cannot enter the commercial housing market for negotiation. This measure will provide more affordable housing options for low-income earners, promote social equity, address housing issues, and help stabilize the housing market.
Accelerate the pace of property tax reform.
Property taxes are getting closer. According to reports, China's top officials plan to expand the scope of the property tax pilot, which will speed up the pace of property tax reform. A property tax can discourage investment demand and speculation, and reduce the vacancy rate. In addition, for the local government, the introduction of a property tax can increase new tax revenues and increase local fiscal revenues in the event of a decrease in land revenue.
The advancement of property tax reform will increase the cost of families with more than two properties, leading them to make more rational choices in real estate investment. This will help balance the supply and demand of the real estate market, prevent the real estate market from overheating, and provide a new guarantee for the stable development of the real estate market.
Summary. In view of the irreversible adjustment trend of the real estate market, there may be three major changes in China: accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure, accelerating the pace of affordable housing to the market, and accelerating the pace of property tax reform. These changes will allow China to gradually move away from its over-reliance on the real estate sector and promote industrial modernization and sustainable economic development. At the same time, promoting affordable housing and property tax reform will also help solve the housing problem and improve social equity. We believe that with these changes, China's real estate market will move towards a more stable and sustainable direction.
Introduction: The real estate market is one of the main driving forces of China's economic development, but in recent years, with the increase of real estate industry control policies and the fluctuation of housing prices, the real estate market has fallen into a depression. To this end, industry experts** believe that from 2024, there will be three major changes in China's real estate market, which will profoundly affect the development of the national economy and society.
Abstract of the argument: If the real estate market cannot turn the situation around, from 2024 onwards, there may be three major changes in China, namely, accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure, accelerating the pace of affordable housing entering the market, and accelerating the pace of property tax reform. These three changes will enable China to gradually reduce its dependence on the real estate industry, promote economic restructuring and modernization, solve the problem of social housing, and achieve stable and sustainable development.