RecentlyYen exchange rateThe continued decline has attracted widespread attention and speculation. It is widely believed that the appreciation of the dollar has put a toll on the yen's exchange rate, and as long as the dollar stops, the yen will usher in **. However, this is not the case. Since November, the dollar index has seen a sharp **, and other currencies have generally appreciated. Among them,RMB offshoreThe exchange rate ** was 2000 pips. In addition, the exchange rate of major Western currencies such as the British pound and the euro also showed a 3%** increase. However, the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar only recovered below 150 and did not appearEconomyObvious to the scientists. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative depreciation of the yen has reached 14%, especially in 2022**13After 9%, continue**. This suggests that there are other larger factors that play in addition to the impact of interest rate differentials between the US dollar and the Japanese yenYen exchange rate
In recent years, JapanEconomyGradually, it gets better. First, the Bank of Japan's stimulus began to take effectInflation rateThere has been a significant rise, out of the decades-long deflationary dilemma. The latest data showed that core inflation reached 29%。The Bank of Japan's monetary policy remains unstableHike ratehopefully inflation will persist for some time. In addition,PandemicAfter the end of the tour, there was also a noticeable recovery in Japan's tourism industry. The number of arrivals in October exceeded 2.5 million, exceedingPandemicbefore the level. The arrival of overseas tourists has made up for the lack of domestic consumption. However, the decline in Japan's domestic spending power is likely to have a greater negative impact. On the one hand, the persistence of prices has led to a decline in real purchasing power, and on the other hand, the real wages of the population have continued to decline year-on-year. In addition, JapanEconomyExports, another engine, also saw a year-on-year decline. Therefore, due to the combination of various factors, in the third quarter of this year, Japan's GDP growth rate turned negative, equivalent to an annualized rate of **2.1%, far exceeding market expectations of 04%, the situation is very serious.
Now, the Bank of Japan is faced with the problem of having to face reality and act on it. At the beginning of the year, the Bank of Japan changed its governor, and the new governor, Kazuo Ueda, should have taken measures earlier. However, to the surprise of the outside world, he almost copied the original loose monetary policy after taking office, and continued to resolutely refuseHike rate, causing the yen to continue to depreciate rapidly. In contrast, the previous governor took three bailouts last year when the yen depreciated sharply, but the current governor did nothing after the yen fell below 150 again. Even more confusing is the fact that for the last three months in a row, the Bank of Japan has boughtU.S. Treasuries, which is equivalent to suppressing the yen and supporting the dollar. However, fortunately in the latest month, Japan corrected its mistake in time and rejoined the sell-offU.S. TreasuriesRanks. However, according to data from Japan's Ministry of Finance, private funds in Japan increased during the same periodU.S. Treasuries, from the country's financial markets. This massive withdrawal of funds is likely to mean that investors are on JapanEconomyThe outlook is pessimistic.
According to JapanEconomyScientists**, next year the Bank of Japan is expected to endNegative interest ratesPolicy. According to the latest data, this is a whopping 85%, up from 52% in September. The Bank of Japan has been in place since 2016Negative interest ratesPolicy. Interest ratesSustainably minus 01%。If it starts next yearHike rate, back to positiveInterest rates, with the potential for a significant increaseYen exchange rate。The key also lies in how the Bank of Japan will decide. If the decision-making level is determined to let the realityInterest ratesRegression to a positive value, ieNominal interest rateexceededInflation rate, then at least it is neededHike rateMore than 250 basis points. At that point, the interest rate differential with the dollar will narrow sharply, and may even be reversed by a sharp rate cut by the dollar. If this happens, the yen will appreciate sharply, and it may even lead to a further increase in the US dollar. Now, people are waiting to see whether the Bank of Japan will take advantage of the trend to fight back against the dollar, or go to the abyss in tandem with the dollar
Yen exchange rateThe large ** has sparked a lot of discussion, and it also reflects JapanEconomyThe Challenge. The Bank of Japan's policy moves are in the spotlight, especially at the current global macro levelEconomysituation, how to deal with exchange rate fluctuations andEconomyThe issue of recovery has come into focus. The Bank of Japan needs to think hardYen exchange ratestability anddomestic economyand actively develop a rational monetary policy. For investors, focus on the direction of the Bank of Japan's decision-making, as well as the worldEconomyKeeping abreast of market trends is crucial to investment decisions. Also, for JapanEconomyScholars and policymakers, should be strengthenedEconomyAnalytical research on recovery and more rational policy recommendations to promote JapanEconomySustainable development. Finally, for the content of this article, if you agree and are interested, please give a like, thank you!