Let's start with the conclusion - the prelude to the current global economic depression has quietly begun, and it is likely to be on the same level as the Great Depression of 1929.
In this ** depression, if you can do the five points in the article, not to mention that you will definitely be able to become the final winner to bathe in the sunrise of the next round of prosperity.
But getting to the finals and beating 90 percent is not a big problem at all!
The time cycle of this ** depression is quite long, if it is calculated from the year of Gengzi in 2020, there is a high probability that it will last for 20 years, and it can basically be said that there will be no spring before 2040!
2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 are the worst years in the past 10 years, but they must be the best years in the next 10 years.
There is a high probability that 2023 will also enter this sequence.
As for what year will this terrifying nursery rhyme last before it ends and bottoms out?
According to various theories of periodicity-
The Kondratiev cycle, the 60-year Jiazi cycle, the Keynesian economic cycle, the Fibonacci cycle, etc., most cycle lows point to around 2027.
In 2027, according to the Jiazi cycle, there is a famous title on the rivers and lakes - Red Horse Red Sheep!
Two. For East Asian countries with poor per capita resources, the exchange rate is the lifeblood and the core of today's economic globalization.
East Asia is the most populous country in the world, and its per capita resources are well below the world average. To put it bluntly, the per capita resources are extremely small.
1. China's per capita freshwater resources are only 1 4 per capita in the world, ranking 109th in the world, and one of the 13 water-poor countries in the world
2. China's per capita cultivated land area ranks 126th in the world, and its per capita per capita is only 1 3 of the world average
3. China's per capita grain volume ranks 40th in the world, and its per capita is only 1 3 of the United States and 1 5 of Australia
As for minerals, energy and other resources, not to mention, the large gap depends on imports to make up for the daily basic supply and demand.
The elements on the periodic table of chemical elements in junior high school, as long as you can memorize them, are basically the tail trucks on the earth's per capita resource list. It is much lower than the per capita resources of the earth, and the per capita resources of the earth are not the per capita resources of Russia, Canada, Australia and other countries.
Money is the medium that accelerates the exchange between things.
If there is no physical resource to support it, the face value of the money is a joke. The countries of East Asia are extremely scarce in terms of per capita resources, and the currencies they issue are far from being backed by sufficient physical resources.
Because the per capita resources of East Asian countries are extremely scarce, they rely on demographic dividends and scientific and technological dividends to survive in the earth's best chain. Purchase raw materials from the upstream, process them into commodities, and then sell them to downstream customers, so as to earn the difference in the ** chain!
In the role of the first chain of the earth in East Asian countries, the stability of the exchange rate can survive in the international first chain.
Therefore, the exchange rate between the currencies issued by East Asian countries and the currencies of major international countries has become the core foundation of the financial system.
The main value of money is to complete the mission of bartering to accelerate circulation. When your currency issuing country does not have sufficient physical materials to endorse, the credit on the banknote will be questioned and even lose its effect.
Therefore, the impact of hyperinflation on ordinary people must be far greater than that of malignant deflation.
Hyperinflation, the twin brothers behind are basically wars.
Therefore, in the face of the economic crisis, all countries will choose the method of vicious deflation and depression to clean up all kinds of problems left over from the process of economic and financial development.
The lesser of the two.
This is the optimal solution for all people to survive when faced with an unsolvable multiple-choice problem.
The strong man broke his wrist, and the loss of a hand at least proves that your life is still there. Once your life is gone, you really have to use the Jade Emperor's banknotes.
It can be seen that tightening the belt in the future to live a hard life, and experiencing a long period of vicious deflationary depression is basically a certainty.
In the face of the same level of vicious deflation in 1929, the Great Depression came again. How can we deal with it so that we have a greater probability of spending this long and endless night that winter has arrived, and a long night that can even produce the illusion of eternal night?
History does not simply repeat itself, but it does complex and resemble.
Five key points to survive the Great Depression PUBG-
1. In the Great Depression – don't be in debt!Don't be in debt!Don't be in debt!
As the name suggests, the Great Depression is an extreme contraction of the buyer's market, and the balance between supply and demand in the market is completely broken. As far as the eye can see, the whole market is a seller's market, and there is rarely a buyer's market. No one can make money, and the demand side is further reduced.
1) At the end of the boom and at the beginning of the Great Depression, the demand-side market was sharply reduced. In order to continue to operate, the vast majority of businesses will choose to drink to quench their thirst and carry out suicide attacks - increase prices to ensure profits!
Raising prices to protect profits is the stagflationary cycle at the end of the boom and the beginning of the Great Depression – stagnant economic growth, inflation!
For example, a steamed bun shop sells for 2 yuan per bun, and you can earn 1 yuan by selling one, selling 500 steamed buns a day. The gross profit per day is 500 yuan, and the gross profit per month is 15,000 yuan. After deducting the rent, water, electricity, and labor, the net profit is about 3,000 yuan.
Once the market enters the Great Depression cycle, there are fewer people buying buns every day, for example, selling 200 less and only 300 a day. calculated, a loss of 3,000 yuan per month.
So at this time, the vast majority of bosses will choose to raise prices, at least to ensure that they do not lose money.
But if you sell it expensively, the number of people who buy steamed buns every day will be even rarer. You continue to raise the price, but in the end, no one buys it at all, so you close your door and go out of business!
2) After the stagflation at the beginning of the Great Depression, prices and goods** will fall sharply.
Although your income has decreased significantly, prices and commodities** have fallen sharply, which can basically offset and hedge.
For example, your original monthly income was 10,000 yuan, but the monthly income dropped to only about 4,000 during the Great Depression. However, prices have also dropped sharply, and buns that originally sold for 3 yuan a piece are now only sold for 1 yuan or even 1 yuan. Although the days were a little harder, they were not much different from the prosperous times.
The fact that people can't survive the Great Depression is not because their incomes have decreased.
It's debt!As the income of society as a whole falls, so do prices. However, liabilities are rigid expenditures, and liabilities remain unchanged and do not change with market fluctuations.
Originally, your monthly income was 10,000 yuan, and your monthly mortgage, car loan, credit card, Huabei, etc. consumed 5,000, and you still had 5,000 for living. Now that the Great Depression is good, your income is directly cut to 4000, even if you don't eat or drink, you can't meet the rigid expenses, you can do without short-term non-rigid liabilities such as credit cards and Huabei, and it is likely that you will have to pay 4000 for long-term liabilities such as housing loans and car loans every month.
As a result, your cash flow will be completely broken, and not only will the property you mortgaged to the bank be completely liquidated, but you will also owe the bank a lot of debts.
In addition, your bank has been in debt for 20-30 years, and as your expected salary income increases, it is likely that the loan will be repaid in 10-15 years. If you can become a CEO and marry Bai Fumei, you will reach the peak of your life or even faster.
But in the face of the Great Depression, incomes fell sharply, and debt loans that were originally repaid in 20-30 years. At the current rate of income, it will take 40-50 years, or even 50-80 years.
Many highly indebted people fall into utter despair.
Once a person is desperate, he basically declares the end of life in a broad sense!
2. Do not hold any ** and negative return assets.
The Great Depression is a resonance of the global economic cycle, and the global Great Depression is by no means domestic. Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean are all shrouded in the long winter of the Great Depression.
Today, the three top bubbles on the earth have reached the point where everyone knows that people and gods are angry!
U.S. stocks!Nakafang!European debt!
These three historical bubbles have begun to burst.
With the formation of a strong ** cycle of the US dollar index, at least the main upward wave of the monthly and quarterly level ** is not ruled out to reach the annual level. Upward cycle, at least 144 months to 233 months. Converted to adulthood, it is 12-194 years.
This winter is quite long, even if you are strong and do not open any leverage, but once you have a heavy position, a full position will take over the peak bubble assets.
It's not that the planet is done with only these three major mega risks. The U.S. housing price bubble is the same as the peak of the historical huge bubble under infinite QE, but the U.S. stock bubble is more dazzling to cover up.
In addition to the peak of the real estate bubble, China's debt problem is also unsolvable.
The real estate bubble has begun to burst, and the debt problem is also prominent!
The 20-year extension period of the 10 billion level of urban investment platform companies has appeared, and the dominoes are just beginning to fall.
As for the European debt problem, it depends on the century-old giants such as Deutsche Bank and Swiss Bank that can bear the collapse of the day.
The domestic real estate bubble and various wealth management products are two huge pits. Housing prices in many parts of the country have continued to be given away. As for the debt, there has been a problem that platform companies cannot deal with it rigidly at the level of tens of billions.
Once you open the leverage to buy a house, or buy a local platform company, corporate bonds and corporate bonds will be extremely risky. In this Great Depression, it would be very common for two or three generations of wealth to be taken away in one wave.
Zhihu has countless houses above for free, as long as you help pay off the debt, the topic is endless!Northeast, Northwest, Yanjiao, Henan, and even Wuhan, the leader of second-tier cities, have such a grand occasion!
* In the process, the house cannot be sold at all without a significant discount, just like a red-hot soldering iron, stuck to the meat for a lifetime.
The above two points are the core lifeline of the Great Depression, and there is no doubt that you will kneel when you step on the thunder.
In addition to the two core lifelines, there are three other obstacles in the Great Depression.
Here are the three major obstacles that ordinary people encountered during the Great Depression.
3. Enhance the ability to involute and keep the job.
At present, the admission standards of teachers in many first- and second-tier high schools already require graduate students and even doctors from the Beiqing Jiaotong and Ivy League.
In recent years, the number of civil servants applying for the examination has skyrocketed, and the involution has been upgraded from the red sea model to the blood sea model. The unemployment rate has increased dramatically, and it is extremely difficult for new graduates to find a relatively decent and reasonably paid job. Because the global market demand side market is extremely shrinking, and at the same time, the supply side of the competition pressure is increasing.
Having a job with a stable income is a way to embolden yourself in the Great Depression. Improve your core skills, improve your work cost performance, and improve your work irreplaceability.
In a word——
The iron armor is still there, improve yourself to roll them to death, and to roll up every opponent!
is what the boss of Huada Gene said: living long is the king.
4. Public order has deteriorated sharply, and the crime rate has risen sharply.
In the 80s and 90s of the last century, domestic security deteriorated extremely, which led to many severe crackdowns.
Later, public order gradually improved, around 2002, after the country joined the WTO. When everyone's economic income increases, who has a problem with their brains and wants to be a criminal if they eat too much?
When the economy was booming, you see how big the market is for those old boys and killing Matt?Everyone is busy making money, improving their lives, trying to change the class and change their fate. Economic prosperity and human life are valuable, because everyone has work to do and earn money, and as long as you work hard, you have the opportunity to live a decent life.
The Great Depression is different, the demand side of the international ** chain is greatly reduced, which will cause a large number of job opportunities, and the degree of involution will increase rapidly.
A large number of overflow laborers who cannot find jobs and do not have a stable income will sharply increase the factors of social instability.
Be sure to avoid going to remote areas to prevent personal danger.
In the absence of home field advantage, the security risk and potential crime rate in the following areas are increasing
Capital - first-tier cities - strong second-tier cities, provincial capitals - provincial capitals - ordinary second-tier prefecture-level cities - third-tier prefecture-level cities - fourth-tier prefecture-level cities - county towns - towns - rural areas - no man's land.
Less frequent gatherings and less remote and inaccessible areas.
Pay attention to personal safety.
5. Fraud traps are disputed.
1) In the Great Depression, you should remember a criterion, if the annualized yield exceeds the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond, it is basically a trap.
The few cash flows you have are in order to survive the long Great Depression with no end in sight. and the end of the Great Depression** quality assets on the floor to usher in a new boom.
Grasp the core point, as long as the yield exceeds the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond, raise the spirit of 12 points, and be a detective to solve the case and arrest **. Of course, it does not mean that the yield below the 10-year Treasury bond is risk-free, because ** will also upgrade.
However, the yield is lower than the 10-year treasury bond, and you can directly hold the 10-year treasury bond.
2) Don't borrow money to go out.
Banks lend money to credit customers, but they can't get it back. Now the banks have accumulated a huge amount of foreclosure assets that are difficult to digest, and the water pressure is getting bigger and bigger like a dammed lake, and it will not be long before the dam collapses.
The bank debt collection group is as follows
Powerful groups such as public security organs, procuratorates, courts, prison systems, and debt collection companies that roam the middle ground of society.
None of them can be collected from lenders.
You, a natural person, dare to lend money to your so-called relatives and friends?
Can you be better than a bank + public security organ + procuratorate + court + prison justice system + debt collection company?
The vast majority of lenders are not insisting on defaulting on their debts, but they really have no money to repay. Even if he were to be sold to Antarctica to raise penguins, he would not be able to pay for it.
You won't lose money if you don't borrow money, and you probably won't lose a so-called friend or relative.
If you borrow money, there is a high probability of losing money, family and friends.
3) Step on the thunder here, and talk about the marriage and love market.
In the Great Recession, the marriage market will also undergo major changes. In addition to the previous conventional requirements, the criteria for the selection of a spouse for all persons also need to verify the debt credit of the spouse of the target.
Because there will definitely be unscrupulous men and women who use the marriage market to harm others, so as to resolve their huge debts. Once the pig killing plate enters the game, it is not only you who will be killed, but even your entire family will be finished.
This must be precautionary.
You can be true to everyone.
You also have the right to love everyone.
I hope you love yourself first and foremost, and don't let your love be exploited by scheming rotten people.
If you have a marriage problem, go to the People's Bank of China to check your credit, and don't be hurt by bad people with high debts and ill intentions, and use marriage as a means.
Winter has arrived, and the long night is endless.