Do you remember two years ago, a small European country called Lithuania suddenly said that it wanted to set up an office in Taiwan?
For Lithuania's blatant contempt for the one-China principle, which is universally recognized by the international communityTrying to point fingers on the Taiwan issue, China has also carried out a series of retaliatory sanctions
Now, two years later, the effects of these sanctions are beginning to be felt. As a result, 1,300 large and small enterprises in Lithuania have closed down, and the unemployment rate remains high, with 60,000 people facing unemployment. The country as a whole is also facing an external debt of up to $470.
Under such circumstances, Lithuania's attitude has finally changed, and its Minister of Economy has changed his mind and expressed his hope to resume economic exchanges with our country.
This is a plea to raise our noble hand, what has happened in Lithuania in the past two years to make such a big change in its attitude?
Lithuania is a small country located on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, bordered by Latvia to the north, Belarus to the east, Poland to the south, and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad Oblast in addition to the Baltic Sea to the west.
The country has a land area of only 6530,000 square kilometers with a total population of only 27950 thousand.
Lithuania has been inhabited since the Paleolithic period, and it was only around the 5th and 6th centuries AD that a class society emergedIt was not until the 13th century that the unified Grand Duchy of Lithuania was established and the Lithuanian nation was formed.
In the following history, he was once merged with Poland into the Kingdom of Poland-Lithuania, and was also incorporated into **, which was once occupied by Germany during the First World War.
After the First World War, Soviet power was established in LithuaniaTogether with the Soviet power in Belarus, it formed the Lithuanian Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, after the end of World War II, joined the Soviet Union.
It was not until 1990 that it officially broke away from the Soviet Union and became an independent republic.
On November 18, 2021, the Lithuanian authorities suddenly announced that they would set up a so-called Taiwan representative office in Lithuania. Shortly thereafter, Paulius Lukauskas, who served as an adviser to the Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrid Simonite, was appointed as the head of the delegation.
The Lithuanian authorities said that the establishment of this "representative office in Taiwan" will help it promote economic ties with Southeast Asia.
Why should Lithuania suddenly get involved in the Taiwan issue, which has nothing to do with it,I am afraid that the reason for this is inseparable from the United States.
For a long time, the United States has regarded China as its biggest strategic rival, and in order to contain China's development, it has used almost all means except hot war.
As early as the Obama era, he put forward a high-profile strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region. Specifically, this strategy refers to the transfer of a number of naval warships to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020 to increase the strength of the U.S. Navy here, so as to counter China's influence on neighboring countries.
According to Obama **,It is preparing to deploy 60 percent of the U.S. Navy's ships in the Asia-Pacific region.
During the Trump era, a war was waged against China, and the two sides began to frequently increase a large number of tariffs on each other's goods, which greatly affected the entire international economic order.
In the current Biden period, in addition to continuing to maintain the first war, he has also enlisted allies everywhere to engage in various sanctions.
This time, the reason why Lithuania dared to jump on the Taiwan issueThis is because shortly before that, US Secretary of State Blinken had a phone call with Lithuanian Prime Minister Lance Burgess.
During the phone call, Blinken made it clear that he would support Lithuania in developing relations with Taiwan.
After Lithuania announced that it would set up a so-called representative office in Taiwan, China strongly condemned itHe said that Lithuania's move has seriously undermined China's territorial security and integrity, and blatantly violated the communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries
China immediately said that it decided to recall its ambassador to Lithuania, and at the same time asked Lithuania to recall its Chinese ambassador.
In addition, shortly thereafter, our country also escalated its sanctions against LithuaniaThe main measures are to ban Lithuanian products from entering China。At the same time, it also forces multinational companies to choose one or the other, which means that if multinational companies choose Lithuanian products, they will also be banned from exporting to China.
Although there were not many economic exchanges between our country and Lithuania, under the influence of the entire epidemic environment at that time, the economic development of the whole world was not very good. For Lithuania, it is still important to have a large market of 1.4 billion people.
Therefore, this set of combined sanctions of our country has also succeeded in making Lithuania suffer.
Since the announcement of sanctions against Lithuania, there have been major problems in the domestic economyThe volume of transactions across imports and exports has dropped significantly。It is reported that thousands of enterprises can only apply for bankruptcy liquidation because they do not have enough profits to support them.
If these thousands of enterprises do go bankrupt, as many as 3% of the population in Lithuania will be directly unemployed.
According to the data given by the Lithuanian statistical department, in the first nine months of 2022,Lithuania's total exports to China fell by as much as 67% to 60.7 million eurosAmong them, the export of goods originating in Lithuania has dropped by 815. There is only 20.5 million euros left.
Moreover, the debt of the Lithuanian state is as high as $47 billion, which accounts for three-quarters of its total economy, and it has come to a relatively dangerous edge. It has turned to allies such as the United States and the European Union for helpBut at best, the exchange was only verbal support
After all, the global economy is still sluggish, and all countries are living in a tight situation, and they really don't have the spare financial resources to help a country that has nothing to do with them.
With the gradual decline of the domestic economy in Lithuania,The local ** has begun to frequently release friendly attitudes to China.
For example, Lithuania** Reseta once made it clear in an interview with reporters at the beginning of 2022:
"The establishment of the so-called "representative office in Taiwan" is actually a wrong policy. The presence of this representative office has seriously affected relations between Lithuania and China.
and Lithuanian Economy Minister Almonai, who once threatened to be "not afraid of Chinese sanctions", also made it clear in an interview with Lithuania's "Business News" at the end of November 2022:
In today's globalized world,It is impossible to exclude China completely.
Lithuania has strengthened its contacts with the Indo-Pacific region, although in the short term, it can offset the losses caused by China's sanctions. However, in the long run, it is still necessary to choose to resume exchanges with China. ”
The reason why Lithuania chose the Taiwan issue to provoke China and act as an anti-China vanguard. On the one hand, the relationship between Lithuania and Russia is very poor due to historical reasons.
And our country has a relatively good relationship with Russia, so I love the house and the black like my country, which is thousands of miles away, I also hate it.
On the other hand, it is due to the fact that many countries such as Europe and the United States are supporting it behind the scenes. And Lithuania, because of the needs of anti-Russia, can only go to hug the thighs of Europe and the United States.
However, after Lithuania really broke up relations with China because of the Taiwan issue, European and American countries did not show some strong support measures for Lithuania, and remained in words.
It is not that European and American countries do not want to support Lithuania to oppose China, but they really have more than enough heart and strength
First of all, due to the impact of the three-year epidemic, the economies of all countries have performed very poorly, and inflation remains highThe U.S. debt crisis will once again break the ceiling, there is really not enough financial resources to support Lithuania.
Secondly, for more than a year, it has been affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Many countries such as Europe and the United States have carried out large-scale military aid to Ukraine, these are very money-burning, and the Russian-Ukrainian war has objectively made the global economy worse.
Of course, we cannot say that Lithuania, the anti-China vanguard, has been abandoned by European and American countries. Because European and American countries have been supporting Lithuania to the best of their abilityIn order to let it continue to act as the vanguard of anti-China and anti-Russia.
It's just that this support is not strong enough to make up for the losses caused by China's sanctions, and it is difficult to save Lithuania's current economic woes.
Lithuania wants to make the economic situation in the country betterIt needs the help of China, a huge market with a population of 1.4 billion。That's why others will frequently give in to China.
Presumably, Lithuania has gradually figured out that its anti-China is unnecessary, and it will do all kinds of harm and no benefit. It is understandable to say that Lithuania is anti-Russian because its historical ties with ** are more complicated.
But for China, the two countries are separated by more than half a world, and there is no historical connection at all, nor is there any direct contradiction at all.
Just because our country has good relations with Russia does not mean that we love our country and hate it like you.
For Lithuania, anti-China is undoubtedly non-essential.
At present, our country is naturally unable to revoke the previous sanctions imposed on Lithuania because of its relenting.
There are several reasons for this:
First, Lithuania is currently only verbally subdued, and as for the specific actual actions, it has not seen anything at all. The offices set up by Lithuania and Taiwan still existThere is no intention of revocation.
It's just a simple shout"** Office in Taiwan" was changed to "** Office in Taipei".。Anyone with a discerning eye knows that this is just a play on words, without the slightest sincerity.
The second is that Lithuania has been the vanguard of anti-China for more than a day or two, for example: in 2018, it was unilaterally torn up for no reasonAn investment agreement was signed between the two parties for the expansion of the port of Klaipeda, so that many enterprises in my country have suffered losses for no reason.
Third, Lithuania is the first country in which the EU has set up a so-called "** representative office" in Taiwan, the negative impact is so bad that it needs to be punished severely. Otherwise, it would not be possible to give a good warning to other countries that are ready to act as the vanguard of the anti-China rush for the United States.
In its attitude toward foreign affairs, Japan has always taken a moderate attitude and wants to engage in friendly exchanges with other countries. However, mildness does not mean being a bullyThe Taiwan issue has always been an issue of constant concern, and the one-China principle has been widely recognized by the international community
Any country that wants to violate the one-China principle and meddle in the Taiwan issue will certainly not be able to get along well with it.
Now that Lithuania has problems in its domestic economy, this is just an example to show other countries what will happen if they dare to provoke China's sovereignty issue.
China is the second largest economy in the worldAt the same time, it is also one of the countries with the best economic development prospects in the post-epidemic era.
Those who want to oppose or decouple from China need to carefully weigh whether the consequences are affordable for them.