Led the way in revenue during the year
As of Nov. 28,Since the beginning of this year, the medium and long-term pure bond and short-term bond ** indices have achieved 294% and 285% cumulative yield, while the equity category (including ordinary**, partial stock hybrid, and flexible allocation) fell by more than 7% during the year, showing an obvious "strong debt and weak stocks"**
Data**:ifind;Statistical deadline: 2023 11 28
From January to August this year, the market continued, while the bond market was dominated by the "bull market", and the net value of many bonds not only filled the hole left by last year, but also hit a new high in the same period in recent years.
StillSince late August, the bond market has also fallen into a correction, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ranged from 254% turned upwards and went all the way up to 272%, however, since the end of October**, bond yields have gone out of a W-shaped trend, and bond ** performance has shown weakness.
Data**:ifind;Statistical deadline: 2023 11 28
Looking back on the investment in the past year, on the one hand, many people regret not allocating some bond base at the beginning of the year (Portal "It's better to look at short-term bonds**" 2023 3 9), on the other hand, the current wave of bond market adjustment makes people worry about whether they will repeat the mistakes of November last year. So, is it okay to get on the bus now?
The adjustment period is also the layout "window period".
We know that there are three main parts of the investment income of bonds: one is coupon income, which is the "main force" that constitutes the stable style of the bond base;The second is capital gains, that is, the income brought by the change in bond tradingThe third is leveraged income.
Since 2008, both the medium- and long-term pure bond** index and the short-term pure bond index have achieved positive returns. On an annual average, the average annual return of medium and long-term pure debt is 411%, with an average annual return of 342%。
Note: In 2023, it will only be in the range of 2023 1 1-11 28.
In addition, as shown in the chart below, the China Bond Composite Net Price Index only reflects changes in bonds**, so it appears to be more volatileThe pure debt ** index (medium and long-term + short-term) is from the perspective of bond investment, taking into account coupon income and income reinvestmentIt shows a long-term steady upward trend
This means,In the bond market adjustment and downward phase, although the performance of the pure bond** index will also be affected to a certain extent, in the long run, it will always recover lost ground and continue to hit new highs
Data**:ifind;Statistical deadline: 2023 11 28
It can be seen that the adjustment of the bond market often brings better opportunities to "get on the bus".
Is the debt base still worth allocating?
Many investors are more concerned about whether the current bond market is more opportunistic or risky.
According to the latest "December Asset Allocation and Investment Report" of the Leader Research Institute: "At the end of the quarter + at the end of the year, the central bank is still likely to implement more effective easing policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts for the sake of stabilizing the capital side." The bond market is expected to be strong during the year, and if the RRR and interest rate cuts are implemented, the downside of interest rates may be further opened. ”
From a short-term perspective, the bond market is facing a certain adjustment, but under the premise that the endogenous drive of the domestic economy is not significantly stronger, residents' willingness to consume is not obvious, and the pattern of easy money and credit may continueAll these will form a certain support for the bond market。Moreover, the risk of pure debt** is relatively controllable, and even if there is a drawdown in net value, it can be largely repaired over time, so there is no need to worry too much.
It is worth mentioning that as of the end of the third quarter, the scale of bond ** reached 833 trillion yuan, an increase of 148.9 billion yuan from the end of the second quarter and 271.2 billion yuan from the same period last year. Towards the end of the year, a number of bond bases intensively issued "purchase restriction orders".to avoid the impact of the rapid growth of the scale on the manager's investment operations and dilution of the holders' income.
In the past two years, the equity has been depressed, and it is only then that the income of about 3% of the debt base is commendable. However, with the crazy influx of funds in the bond market, it may theoretically cause the bond ** to rise and suppress the expected yield. On the other hand, the current investment cost performance of equity assets is prominent, and the expected rate of return is rising, for investors who have higher expected yields and only regard the bond base as a "short-term safe haven", it is obvious that the purchase limit of the bond base is an obvious signal.
Risk Warning: Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious in making decisions.
Important Notice: Your acceptance, reading or use of this document constitutes your prior and unconditional acceptance of the terms and conditions set forth in the following "Important Notice":
The information in this document is for reference only and does not constitute any legally binding product investment offer or solicitation of an offer, and cannot be used for the evaluation of investment. The information contained in this document is only a preliminary reminder, and Lead** has never represented or guaranteed the completeness and accuracy of the information in this document, and the acceptance or user shall not make any claim for its completeness and accuracy. Even though all the information in this document has been provided, selected and verified with the utmost care, Lead** does not assume any responsibility for the completeness of the information and the correctness of the content. This information is only a promotional material, and the institution and its staff do not directly or indirectly promote related products, and do not constitute investment advice.