According to the statistics released by the central bank, at the end of September this year, the growth rate of residents' deposits reached an astonishing 134 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 165%。This figure is not only significantly higher than that of enterprises and enterprisesFinancial institutionsThe growth rate of deposits, and also exceeded 57% growth rate of household loans. This means that household deposits continue to grow, and the pace of growth is impressive.
Further analysis shows that there are two main reasons for the rapid increase in residents' deposits. First of all, the increase in the income of residents is one of the main reasons for this. withEconomyWith the development of the employment situation and the improvement of the employment situation, the income level of residents has been raised, and deposits are a way to maintain value safely, so residents choose to deposit excess incomeBanks。Second, the suppression of residents' spending is also an important reason for the growth of residents' deposits. Currently,property marketIn a period of adjustment,** The performance was also less than satisfactory, with residents depositing funds in comparisonBanksBecome a more rational choice.
However, the rapid growth of household deposits has also exposed some problems. First of all, this says about the residentsAsset allocationChoices are limited, and deposits are the most conservative type of asset, with a relatively low return despite low principal risk. Secondly, the increase in residents' deposits is also hinted atStock fundsHuge scale. As of the end of September this year, China's renminbi itemsDeposit balanceup to 281 trillion, a considerable part of which isFunds precipitation。For example, although resident deposits exceed 130 trillion, a significant part is long-termFixed Deposits, which is an inefficient use of funds. If you can use these effectivelyStock funds, which will undoubtedly beproperty marketand other assets to create growth momentum.
Under the current circumstances, the rapid rise in the growth rate of household deposits reflects two significances. First of all, this shows the phenomenon of a shortage of residents' funds, that is, there is no better fundingInvestmentsway, so it can only be depositedBanksproperty marketwithThe adjustment is still underway and there are no clear signs of recovery, which has led residents to put their money inBanksIt is mainly based on value preservation. However, this situation is not sustainable in the long runEconomywithInvestmentsAll have cyclical characteristics. Take ** company as an example, if you have a lot of money on hand and can't find a new oneInvestmentsIt is difficult to maintain a profitable situation. Recently, the BSE 50 index has soared, soaring 50% in just 26 trading days. This shows that institutions urgently need to launch a new round of **, while the BSE 50 is smaller, the trading volume is relatively low, and it is relatively easy to rise. The BSE 50 ** reflects the abundance of funds in the market, and what is lacking now is confidence and qualityInvestmentsTarget.
Second, the speed of increase in residents' deposits is also highlightedStock fundsThe scale is huge. At the end of September this year, China's RMB was in various placesDeposit balanceUp to 281 trillion, a significant part of which is idle deposits. Despite the fact that resident deposits exceed 130 trillion, a large part of them are long-termFixed DepositsThis part of the funds is obviously used inefficiently. If these funds can be used effectively, in particular, they should be directedwithproperty market, which is bound to inject strong impetus into the recovery of assets.
However, the rapid growth of household deposits has also brought some challenges. First of all,Deposit interest ratesWe still need to continue to work hard to bring into play the market-oriented adjustment mechanism. According to the central bank report, since the beginning of this year, the central bank has continued to playDeposit interest ratesThe role of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism is mainly through guidanceBanksDownward revision for 1 year or moreDeposit interest ratesto alleviate the phenomenon that deposits tend to be fixed and long-term, and boost the interests of enterprises and residentsInvestmentsConsumption power, and forBanksConcessionary entitiesEconomyCreate favorable conditions. Therefore, if resident deposits continue to grow rapidly, thenDeposit interest ratesThere will be a possibility of downward adjustment. BanksFaced with an oversupply of deposit funds, the only way to attract and retain funds is to lower interest rates. At the same time,Deposit interest ratesIt's also right to be too highBanksIts own profitability is under pressure. Currently,Commercial Banks's net interest margin has fallen to 173%, which is already close to the limit of reduction, and further lowering interest rates may be rightFinancestability has a detrimental effect.
Judging from the current trend, if the growth rate of household deposits starts to slow down and gradually equalizes the growth rate of other loans, this is not necessarily a bad thing, but may indicate a recovery in demand for goods, as wellproperty marketand other assets**. The current growth rate of household loans has fallen to 5.%.7%, which is significantly lower than the growth rate of other loans. Most of the resident loans are used for:Buying a house, so the decrease in loans also implies a decrease in real estate transaction activity.
Looking back at the data and policies in the central bank's report, we can see that the central bank has taken steps to guide itDeposit interest ratesdownward adjustment to boost the entityEconomyDevelop. However,Deposit interest ratesThe adjustment will not be achieved overnight, and it will still take more time and effort to play its market-oriented mechanism. Therefore, if household deposits continue to grow, the central bank may reduce them furtherDeposit interest rates。ForBanksDeposit funds are in excess of demand, and they can only be retained by lowering interest rates. And for individuals,Deposit interest ratesThe decline may lead to lower savings returns, which in turn will motivate residents to become more interested in othersInvestmentsThe demand for the channel.
To sum up, the rapid rise in the growth rate of residents' deposits has both positive significance and certain challenges. Currently, residentsAsset allocationThe options are limited, and the deposit becomes a relatively conservative option. However, withEconomyand the development ofInvestmentsAs the environment changes, the way residents allocate their funds will also change. The central bank has taken steps to guide itDeposit interest ratesmarketization, alleviate the propensity of deposits, and for entitiesEconomyCreate more favorable conditions. In the future, the growth rate of residents' deposits will be guided by policiesEconomyThe impact of multiple factors such as the environmentInvestmentsIt is also necessary to choose carefully according to individual circumstancesInvestmentschannels to achieve longer-term wealth accumulation goals.