**: Giant Elephant Gold
Last Friday, when the market was still immersed in the hot atmosphere of the Federal Reserve's 1** interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve** suddenly released hawkish remarks, which cooled the market's optimistic interest rate cut expectations, and the U.S. dollar index rose sharply during the U.S. session, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield both rising, changing the previous sharp decline. New York Fed President Williams said, "The Fed is not really talking about cutting interest rates at the moment, and the question now is whether we are restrictive enough to be prepared for further tightening, and if necessary, the Fed must be prepared to raise interest rates again." At the same time, it pointed out that the market reaction may be stronger than ** suggests, and it is "too early" to consider a rate cut in March, and we must fully grasp the reaction of the data. The Fed's sudden hawkishness cooled market sentiment.
In addition, last Friday, European and American countries successively released the PMI manufacturing data for December, of which the UK, France, and Germany continued to decline in December, and the euro zone manufacturing PMI fell to 44 in December2. Lower than expected and unchanged from the previous month. The preliminary value of the U.S. manufacturing industry in December 2 recorded 482. Lower than the previous value and expectations, respectively, the manufacturing industry as a whole showed a cooling trend. The recession in the manufacturing sector reflects the current cooling of the economy. Although this series of data has some support for gold prices, with the impact of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, the bullish momentum has failed to be released.
On Friday, the bulls continued to rise, and the US pre-market was blocked near 2045 in the evening, after which the bears quickly retreated and broke below 2026 in one fell swoop. From the trend point of view, the bulls were affected by the interest rate decision to rise rapidly, ** showing a three-stage structure, and the current bears are also showing a three-stage decline, because this structure is prone to turn, so it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in long and short. From the point of view of indicators, on the 30-minute period, the MACD indicator fast and slow line Diff and DEA have retraced to the golden cross below the 0 axis, the red kinetic energy column began to grow, and the bulls began to force upward again.
On Friday, after the bulls continued to rise to a new high, the bears fell back quickly in the evening U.S. session, reaching a low of 23Around 70, after which the bulls continued to move upward. From the trend point of view, ** bulls affected by the interest rate decision, the low level rose sharply, and showed an N-shaped**, and then due to the divergence of the phenomenon of falling, now the fall has stopped falling, and the bulls have continued to rise. From the point of view of indicators, the 1-hour MACD indicator fast and slow line diff and DEA are about to run above the 0 axis, the green kinetic energy column continues to shorten, and the bulls have the phenomenon of re-exerting force.
On the 4-hour chart of the U.S. dollar index, the bears moved sharply lower last week and hit new lows due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. After that, there was a wave of ** among the bulls, with the intention of retracting the pressure above. Since the current trend is a trend, there are many upper pressure levels, and once the end of the short position is easy to go down again.
*ETF – SPDR Gold Trust Holdings Report.
The above views and suggestions are for reference only. 】
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