Israel has once again assassinated a senior Iranian general, and tensions have reignited in the Middle East. On December 25, Israel launched an airstrike on the Syrian capital, Damascus, resulting in the tragic death of Mousavi, a senior Iranian military adviser in Syria. Raisi has vowed to make Israel pay, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued a statement saying that Israel will pay the price. However, most of the retaliatory actions in the past have remained in words, and whether Iran will take substantive action has become the focus of attention. Iran also threatened to redouble its retaliation after being attacked by a U.S. drone three years ago, but in the end there was no real action.
Iran's military bases in Syria have also been repeatedly attacked by Israel, and Iran has vowed to retaliate, but the outside world has not seen actual action. This time, will Iran just "retaliate with words", as in the past?Probably not. Because after the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Middle Eastern countries have sided with Palestine, and most countries in the world are also condemning Israel in the international context. If Iran retaliates on a large scale, it will not attract much condemnation and even win the support of Arab countries in the Middle East.
Iran's greatest fear, however, is a large-scale U.S. military strike on its homeland. But at this time, the United States is in a very passive moment, and the possibility of Iran's attack on Israel will not trigger a large-scale military action by the United States. Israel is so concerned about the consequences of the attack that IDF spokesmen are afraid to comment for fear of further spurring Iran to act. At a time when the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is severe, it would be unwise to assassinate a senior Iranian general.
Just imagine, if Iran takes a large-scale military action against Israel from the direction of Syria, Israel is likely to be difficult to resist at this time. The Middle East drama is yet to come, so let's wait and see.