Recently, the Auto Research Institute released the Auto Market Battle Insight Report (2023 Edition), which lists the market performance data of different brand models, and deeply analyzes the changes and development trends of the auto market in the first three quarters, which can provide some reference and help for industry friends, let's take a look.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the Chinese auto market is in full swing and the rising market sales are complemented by each other, which is very likely to reshape the traditional benefit distribution mechanism of the Chinese auto market.
From 2021 to 2022, the average discount per passenger car in China's passenger car market is 15-20,000 yuan, most car companies gritted their teeth and insisted, looking forward to the spring blossoms in 2023 after the epidemic, but it backfired, and the discount for each terminal exceeded 20,000 yuan at the end of the second quarter of 2023, approaching 2 at the end of the third quarter60,000 yuan. Such a large-scale discount not only exceeds the level of the three years of the epidemic, but also has not been seen in the past 30 years;
With the continuous increase of terminal discounts, terminal sales are like sesame blossoming festivals, less than 1.3 million in January and February, more than 1.6 million in March and April, and then continue to increase, approaching 2 million in the first month, and 15.24 million in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 369%, of which the proportion of new energy rose to 3237%。The annual sales volume is expected to challenge 21 million units, and the proportion of new energy is expected to challenge 35%;
The full swing of the first war and the rising market sales, as well as the significant increase in the proportion of new energy in the whole value chain model, make the whole value chain innovation the main reason for the intensification of this round of war. Theoretically, the innovation of the whole value chain will help the auto market improve the efficiency of the value chain and promote the expansion of the overall value of the auto market from AEBO to A2E2B2O, which will benefit most car companies. However, the actual situation is that most participants are facing huge challenges, and the ghosts and wolves of car companies and dealers are crying one after another, which means that the value chain of most participants is relatively backward, and the traditional benefit distribution mechanism of China's auto market will encounter huge challenges for new players, especially traditional dealers based on 4S stores and the Chinese side of joint venture car companies.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the new value chain will help new energy vehicle companies to actively reduce their official status and rob the vested interests of fuel vehicles, resulting in the latter becoming the hardest hit area of the first war.
In the face of the first-class war provoked by new energy vehicle companies, we cannot simply think that these car companies like to "burn money". New energy products have greatly improved the efficiency of the automotive value chain, and greatly reduced costs, leaving more room for the car company's first war.
Entering 2023, with the rapid increase in the proportion of new energy sales exceeding 30%, as well as the sharp decline in BYD Champion Edition, fuel vehicles have quickly become the hardest hit areas of the first war, among which the average terminal discount for ICEV (pure fuel vehicles) is approaching 30,000 yuan, and HEV (petrol-electric hybrid) is exceeding 40,000 yuan. In this process, dealers bear the brunt, joint venture car companies are under great pressure, and overseas car companies are a little nervous;
At the end of the third quarter of 2023, although the preferential margin of new energy is less than that of fuel vehicles, with the share exceeding one-third, the focus of the new energy war will accelerate from the battle between oil and electricity to internal contention. At the end of 2023, the M7 and M9 will challenge the ideal L series, and the Qiyuan A05 will challenge the Qin PLUS, and the infighting of new energy will be more intense in 2024, and new energy vehicle companies with poor profitability will encounter severe challenges.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the high-end car market, which has higher bicycle profits, has become the hardest hit area in this round of ** war, with a discount of more than 60,000 yuan per vehicle, and mainstream high-end brands such as BBA have suffered heavy losses.
If there are interests, there will be disputes, and the more interests there are, the greater the disputes. The most profitable part of China's auto market is the high-end auto market, which is naturally prone to become the focus of interest competition. In recent years, Tesla, Ideal, Weilai, Denza, Wenjie, Weipai, Tank, Zeekr, Lantu and other rebels have carried the banner of "fighting local tyrants and dividing the land";
At the beginning, these peasant rebels only wanted to get a piece of the BBA's sphere of influence, but in the fierce battles in 2022-2023, a few rebels such as Ideal, Denza, and Tanks stood out and continued to conquer the city, and were welcomed by a large number of old BBA users. In the first three quarters of 2023, the discount per vehicle of high-end brands will quickly exceed 60,000 yuan, and BBA will be even worse;
At the end of 2023, the strong attack of the M7 and M9 of the new question world, as well as the rapid price reduction of the ideal L series**, have put pressure on BBA and others. Entering 2024, the Armageddon between the Rebels and the BBA will be on paper.
In the first three quarters of 2023, sedans have become the hardest hit areas of the war, with discounts exceeding 30,000 yuan per vehicle, and the focus of profits in the auto market has further shifted to multi-functional products such as SUVs and MPVs.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the hardest hit area of the ** war is cars, and the discount for each terminal will exceed 30,000 yuan by the end of the third quarter from less than 20,000 yuan at the beginning of the year. The overall discount for an SUV is 0 less than that for a sedan50,000 yuan, less MPV, plus the terminal sales of SUVs in 2023 are already comparable to cars, the internal structure of MPVs is becoming more and more high-end, and the profitability of SUVs and MPVs are stronger than those of cars, which jointly boosts the profit focus of the car market from cars to multi-functional products of SUVs and MPVs;
Since this round of first-class war accelerates the profit concentration of multi-functional products in the auto market, from 2024 to 2025, multi-functional products of SUVs and MPVs will definitely become the focus of car companies' product layout, and sedans will continue to be marginalized and even accelerated.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the higher the sedan class, the greater the discount, and high-end sedans will become a key auto market for car companies to deploy new cars and participate in the competition for interests.
At the end of the third quarter, the overall discount margin of micro and small cars such as Hongguang MINIEV and Seagull was less than 10,000 yuan, the overall discount of compact cars such as Lavida and Sylphy exceeded 20,000 yuan, the overall discount of medium-sized cars such as Accord and seal approached 40,000 yuan, and the overall discount of medium and large sedans such as Audi A6L and Mercedes-Benz E-class approached 60,000 yuan. The overall preferential margin of large cars such as Mercedes-Benz S-class exceeded 100,000 yuan;
In the first three quarters of 2023, large-scale price reductions for all levels of sedans** have achieved significant results in boosting sales, especially in the three major segments of small cars, compact cars, and mid-size cars.
The higher the level of the car, the greater the terminal discount and the more significant the preferential range, which means that the high-level car has greater added value and is more likely to become a battleground.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the higher the SUV level, the greater the discount, and high-end SUVs will become a key auto market for car companies to deploy new cars and participate in the competition for interests.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the terminal discounts of SUV segments at all levels of the car market continued to increase, and the higher the level, the greater the terminal discount and the more significant the discount margin, and the overall discount margin of small SUVs such as Binzhi and Binyue in September was less than 150,000 yuan, the overall discount of compact SUVs such as Haval H6 and CR-V is more than 20,000 yuan, the overall discount of medium-sized SUVs such as Highlander and Tiguan L is close to 30,000 yuan, and the overall discount of medium and large SUVs such as Tourang and BMW X5 is 360,000 yuan, the overall discount range of large SUVs such as BMW X7 and Mercedes-Benz GLS exceeds 60,000 yuan;
In the first three quarters of 2023, large-scale price reductions in SUVs of all levels** have achieved significant results in boosting sales, especially in the three major segments of compact SUVs, mid-size SUVs, and medium-large SUVs.
The higher the SUV level, the greater the terminal discount and the more significant the discount margin, which means that the high-end SUV has greater added value and is more likely to become a battleground.
In the first three quarters of 2023, electric cars such as Seagull and Binguo will instantly subvert the traditional competition pattern and benefit distribution mechanism of small cars.
Following the Dolphin, on March 29, 2023, SAIC-GM-Wuling Binguo was officially launched at a price of 598-8.380,000 yuan, on April 26, BYD Seagull was officially launched, with a price of 7380,000 yuan-8980,000 yuan. Compared with the same level of fuel vehicles priced at 7-110,000 yuan such as Fit, Polo, Zhixuan, and Weichi, Seagull and Binguo have many advantages such as lower prices and lower use costs, which not only increase the volume quickly, but also redefine the competition pattern and benefit distribution mechanism of the car market segment;
In the first three quarters of 2023, electric vehicles such as Dolphin, Seagull, and Binguo have completely subverted the dominance of fuel vehicles such as Fit, Polo, and Vios in small cars. This change provides a useful reference for the optimization of the good cat and the market pricing of BMW MINI EV, and also points out the direction for the technical route switching of small cars such as Volkswagen, Toyota, and Honda.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Qin Plus Champion Edition released the battle document of "the same price of oil and electricity", which strongly impacted the pricing mechanism and vested interests of Sylphy, Lavida, Suteng, etc.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the monthly terminal discount for compact cars will be less than 150,000 yuan rose to 20,000 yuan, intensifying the start of the compact car ** war is BYD Qin plus, which issued a "petrol and electricity at the same price" at the beginning of the year, vowing to drive out the Tartars, on February 10 on the market DM-i Champion Edition, with 998~14.With an ultra-low price of 580,000 yuan, it will reach less than 100,000 yuan in one fell swoop, and the EV Champion Edition will be launched on April 7 with a price of 1298-17.680,000 yuan, within 130,000 yuan in one fell swoop;
Through the strategy of "the same price of oil and electricity", in the first three quarters of 2023, Qin plus has achieved good results of nearly 300,000 units, turning into a new leader of compact cars, forcing a large number of fuel vehicles such as Lavida, Suteng, Bora, Sylphy, and Corolla to take Qin plus as the standard and re-optimize the system through large-scale price reductions;
At the end of the third quarter of 2023, although the terminal discount of most compact fuel vehicles is as high as 20,000 yuan, the comprehensive cost advantage is still not as good as Qin plus, and the competition pattern of the compact car market is still very variable.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the discount of Camry, Accord, Magotan and other fuel medium-sized cars is as high as 40,000 or 50,000 yuan, striving to defend the core interests and final glory of the joint venture fuel vehicles.
The Seal EV launched on July 29, 2022 is priced at 20980,000 yuan-28680,000 yuan, the market has some expectations. Entering 2023, the first-class war in the mid-size sedan market has intensified rapidly, and the overall preferential range will exceed 30,000 yuan in March. The prices of entry-level models such as Camry, Accord, and Magotan are approaching 150,000 yuan. Seal, which is under pressure, will launch the Champion Edition on May 10, 2023, lowering the price to 18980,000 yuan-27980,000 yuan, but the sales volume has not risen rapidly, because the first battle of medium-sized cars in June has further deteriorated, and the overall preferential range at the end of the third quarter is approaching 40,000 yuan, and many entry-level models of fuel medium-sized cars have been sold into 150,000 yuan. On September 6, the BYD Seal DM-i was launched, and the price was lowered to 16680,000-23680,000 yuan;
Based on Qin plus and Song plus, BYD subverted the traditional pattern of fuel dominance in the compact car market in an instant, but BYD encountered strong sniping from Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda and other joint venture car companies in the mid-size car, and the first two charges of the seal were repelled by fuel vehicles such as Camry, Accord, and Magotan non-stop. Medium-sized sedans contribute the main sales and profits to mainstream joint venture car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, and Honda, similar to the "base camp" of joint venture car companies.
In the first three quarters of 2023, although the sales ranking of medium-sized sedans is still dominated by fuel vehicles such as Camry, Passat, and Magotan, the large-scale price reduction** has made the vast majority of dealers who operate fuel medium-sized sedans in a state of losing money and making money. In 2024, in addition to the strengthening of the first offensive by seals, more new energy products such as Qiyuan A07, Star Era ES, Galaxy E8, and more new energy players such as Xiaomi and Huawei will continue to pour in.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Audi A6L, Mercedes-Benz E-class, and BMW 5 Series will generally offer discounts of 70,000 or 80,000 yuan, and Han, Zeekrypton 001, etc., will actively explore new segments of the medium and large sedan market.
In recent years, the consumer group of medium and large sedans has evolved dramatically, accelerating the shift from business and government users who pay more attention to the brand to family users who pay more attention to cost performance. In the first three quarters of 2023, the terminal discounts of the traditional main models Audi A6L, Mercedes-Benz E-class and BMW 5 series are generally as high as 70,000 or 80,000 yuan, which also creates opportunities for opening up new segments of the car market for medium and large cars, and the overall price is only more than 200,000 yuan BYD Han has sprung up, and has become a new sales champion of medium and large sedans. Leapmotor C01 and other more and more cost-effective new energy products have poured into the top 10 sales of medium and large cars;
From 2024 to 2025, medium and large car users will accelerate the transfer from business and government affairs to families, and the car market will only intensify to create a bigger stage for new energy products with more outstanding cost performance.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the Yuan PLUS has strongly plundered the vested interests of Honda's two small SUVs, the Binzhi and the XR-V, by elongating and upgrading and focusing on pure electric vehicles.
In the small SUV market, the BYD Yuan has long been pressed by the XR-V and Binzhi due to space and other constraints, the latter two are the core leaders of the small SUV market and the mainstay of Honda's sales in China.
In the first half of 2022, BYD Yuan upgraded to the compact SUV Yuan PLUS, making up for the space shortcomings, as well as the empowerment of the new platform, the sales of the Yuan PLUS increased rapidly, exceeding 200,000 units in the first three quarters of 2023, far ahead of XR-V and Binzhi, resulting in a sharp decline in Honda's sales and profits in China. In the first three quarters of 2023, XR-V and Binzhi had to reduce prices on a large scale**, with an overall discount of around 20,000 yuan;
In the first three quarters of 2023, although small SUVs are still dominated by fuel vehicles, they have the potential to become mainstream scooters, and new vested interests such as Geely should actively accelerate the transition from fuel vehicles to electrification.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Song PLUS and Yuan PLUS have become the new leaders in the compact SUV market, instantly moving the cake of fuel vehicles such as Haval H6 and CR-V.
In the first three quarters of 2023, following the Song PLUS, the Yuan PLUS will make persistent efforts, and the two will join hands to lead the compact SUV, and join hands with AION Y and Song PRO to jointly blow the wave of new energy in the compact SUV market. Haval H6, CR-V, R**4 and other traditional fuel vehicles were forced to reduce prices on a large scale**;
Compact SUV is the base camp of Chinese brands such as Geely, Haval, Changan, Chery, etc., and is also a key market for overseas brands such as Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan, etc.
In 2023, Haval's adjustment in the compact SUV car market is very fierce, on the occasion of the "dumb fire" of the Thunder Dragon MAX and the Thunder Dragon, quickly concentrate resources on the Raptors with the main hard-core style, the orders at the end of 2023 are very good, and the monthly sales of the Raptors in 2024 may exceed 10,000 units, and there is the potential to replace H6 to become the new leading model of Haval, coupled with the 167,000 yuan ** grid and Song PLUS, Yuan PLUS completely different positioning, Raptors will take the comparative advantage of the Great Wall, give BYD a shot, BYD will see how the equation Leopard 3 will see the move.
In the first three quarters of 2023, a Model Y will completely subvert the traditional interest pattern of mid-size SUVs, and both fuel vehicles and new energy competitors will be forced to "bleed".
On January 1, 2021, the Model Y was officially delivered, and the new car is available in two versions with a price of 33 each990,000 yuan and 36990,000 yuan. Compared with Mercedes-Benz GLC, BMW X3, Audi Q5L, etc., which were priced as high as four or five hundred thousand yuan at that time, Model Y has a huge advantage, plus the super low cost of car maintenance, and a unique brand halo, from the day of its birth, the mid-size SUV car market has entered a new era dominated by Model Y;
At the beginning of 2023, the Model Y dropped to 2599-35.990,000 yuan to further expand the advantage. In the first three quarters, the terminal sales of Model Y exceeded 320,000 units, far ahead of competing products, Mercedes-Benz GLC, BMW X3, Audi Q5L, etc., were forced to reduce prices on a large scale**, with a general discount of 70,000 or 80,000 yuan. A Model Y forced BBA-related new energy products to discount 100,000 yuan at every turn, which instantly disrupted the first-class system of BBA's new energy and fuel vehicles, and directly strangled BBA's attempt to enhance brand power through new energy in the cradle, completely disrupting BBA's top-level strategy. Highlander, Tiguan L, Envision and other mainstream medium-sized SUVs also have to follow up the rhythm of the battle, and new energy competitors such as Weilai ES6, Xpeng G6, and Zhiji LS6 naturally have to follow up comprehensively;
The Model Y, which has performed well in the Chinese auto market, has strongly carved up the profits of fuel vehicles such as Mercedes-Benz GLC, Audi Q5L, BMW X3, and Highlander, and has become Tesla's global "profit cow".
In the first three quarters of 2023, the Ideal L7 and L8 will join hands to dominate the medium and large SUV market, and strongly share the vested interests of fuel vehicles such as BMW X5, Mercedes-Benz GLE, and Tourang.
On September 30, 2022, the Ideal L8 was officially launched with a price of 3598-39.980,000 yuan, the ideal L7 announced the price at the same time, specifically 3398-37.980,000 yuan. Compared with the high pricing of 670,000 yuan for Mercedes-Benz GLE, BMW X5, Audi Q7 and other Mercedes-Benz GLEs of the same level, the ideal L series has significant advantages, as well as significant energy-saving advantages and humanized design, etc., in the first three quarters of 2023, the ideal L7 and the ideal L8 have achieved good results in terminal sales of about 80,000 units, and have joined hands with L9 to create a net profit of more than 6 billion yuan for the ideal car, and at the same time reserve nearly 90 billion yuan in cash, making full preparations for the more fierce battle in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024;
At the end of 2023, the strong rise of the M7 will further promote the transformation of the consumption focus of medium and large SUVs to new energy, and the vested interests of fuel vehicles will continue to be divided.
In the first three quarters of 2023, mid-size and large-sized MPVs are still led by Buick GL8, but new energy sources such as Denza D9 and Trumpchi E9 are taking steps to carve up the benefits of MPVs.
In the first three quarters of 2023, although the sales ranking of medium-sized medium and large MPVs is still led by Buick GL8, with more than 90,000 units, new energy MPVs such as Denza D9 and Trumpchi E9 are operating step by step, and this segment is no longer the Buick GL8 alone, and its market share is constantly being eaten away by new entrants;
At the end of 2023, a new batch of MPVs such as Trumpchi E8 and Ideal MEGA are gearing up and ready to go, and in 2024, the battle of medium-sized and above MPVs will deteriorate rapidly, and the competitive landscape is very likely to be subverted.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the vested interests of overseas high-end brands in China have suffered a heavy blow, including the top 7 terminal discounts of mainstream brands, and BBA is among them, which can be described as a "big bloodletting".
In the first three quarters of 2023, the most tragic battle in China's auto market is the high-end auto market, with Jaguar, Volvo, and Audi taking the top 3 terminal discounts of mainstream brands, with an average discount of 11 per vehicle470,000 yuan, 9720,000 yuan and 7440,000 yuan. followed by Land Rover, BMW, Cadillac and Mercedes-Benz, and the TOP7 are all high-end brands;
Buick, Chevrolet, and Volkswagen have terminal discounts of 3 respectively380,000 yuan, 3210,000 yuan and 3100,000 yuan, leading the price reduction of mainstream ordinary brands**;
The new energy brand ORA is at the bottom of the top 20 terminal discounts, leading the mainstream new energy brands to reduce prices**.
In the first three quarters of 2023, BYD will strongly plunder the vested interests of Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, etc. through large-scale official reductions, and reconstruct the profit distribution mechanism of the mainstream auto market.
Our current mainstream view is that the vigorous ** war in 2023 has caused everyone to have no money to make, so we call for the cessation of the ** war. The vigorous ** war has indeed made many car companies complain and suffer heavy losses, but it does not mean that all car companies have no money to make. In the first three quarters of 2023, BYD's net profit exceeded 20 billion yuan, and it challenged 30 billion yuan for the whole year, hitting a record high and making a lot of money. If BYD does not provoke a vigorous ** war in 2023, it will be impossible to achieve soaring achievements in both sales and profits, or as before, Wang Chuanfu can only watch overseas car companies busy counting banknotes;
If the overall sales volume and profit of the market remain unchanged, the sharp growth of some car companies will definitely lead to a sharp decline in others. BYD's crazy growth in 2023 is based on the crazy plundering of sales and profits of Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc., and has broken through the break-even point of competing dealers, and even the operating equilibrium point, resulting in the hard-earned money of the past ten years has been lost in the past two or three years, especially this year. It also further intensified the contradictions between competing manufacturers, causing competing dealers to boycott the business policies of car companies, and even being forced to withdraw from the network, disintegrating the competing product camp;
* War is the most direct and effective way for strong car companies to suppress competing products, and its core mission is to reconstruct the benefit distribution mechanism, rather than destroy the industry. In the face of the vigorous war, the majority of car companies and dealers should not be frightened or solidified by the tragic phenomenon of flesh and blood, and should actively think about the reasons and countermeasures behind the war. The core reason why BYD can launch a large-scale first-class war is the improvement of the value chain, which can produce more products at a lower cost and sell them at a lower price, and according to the first-class sales, it is generally the only one that can make money, and most competing products can only lose money and can only be eliminated. Competing products have few better options than upgrading the value chain;
At present, the prices of most models such as BYD's Qin Plus, Song Pro, Dolphin, Seagull, and Yuan Plus have become the pricing standards for the corresponding segmented car market, that is, the relevant competing products cannot go back after the large-scale price reduction of the relevant segmented car market, and there is a possibility that they will be further forced to reduce in 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2023, many models such as BYD's Tang, Han, and Seal have also encountered weak sales challenges, and the above-mentioned models also have a large space for price reduction, at the beginning of 2024, BYD may set off a new round of ** war based on medium-sized and above products, leaving little time for competing products such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, and this time it will directly hit the "last bastion" of joint venture car companies.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Tesla and Li will strongly plunder the vested interests of Audi, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, etc. through large-scale official reductions, and reconstruct the benefit distribution mechanism of the high-end auto market.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the most tragic battle in China's auto market is the high-end auto market, with a discount of 40,000 yuan or 50,000 yuan and as much as 70,000 yuan or 80,000 yuan. Before 2023, many dealers of Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW can still make money, or even make a lot of money, but in 2023, the vast majority of dealers of traditional high-end brands will instantly fall into the abyss of loss. Many dealers focus their business on high-end brands, thinking that they can sit back and relax, but who knows that it has become a hot potato in an instant;
While most mainstream high-end brands are struggling, a few brands such as Tesla and Ideal are gradually getting better. In the first three quarters of 2023, the ideal net profit soared to 6 billion yuan, surpassing most car companies in one fell swoop, and the annual sales volume will exceed 350,000 units, surpassing Lexus, Cadillac, Volvo and other second-camp high-end brands. In 2024, the ideal car can sell 70 or 800,000 units, based on the current sluggish performance of Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW and the chaotic new energy layout, the ideal car will surpass BBA and become the new leader of the first camp of high-end brands.
In the first three quarters of 2020-2023, the development trend of "large hybrid and small pure electric" in China's new energy vehicle market has become clearer, and hybrid products such as ideal EREV, Denza's PHEV, and Toyota's HEV have achieved good results in the high-end car market. As a result, BBA has missed the new energy opportunities in the high-end car market in the past two or three years. In 2024, once the ideal sales volume surpasses BBA, and a large number of new energy brands focusing on hybrid vehicles such as Denza, Wenjie, Formula Leopard, and Tank also grow by leaps and bounds, and the sales volume has risen to two or three hundred thousand units, the traditional competition pattern and benefit distribution mechanism of China's high-end auto market will be reconstructed, and the focus will shift to the new energy camp dominated by Chinese brands, helping Chinese brands to open up a new channel to feed the mainstream auto market with high-end profits.