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Since August, the South China Sea has been turbulent, and the Philippines, with the support of the United States, has frequently provoked our country.
Philippine vessels forcibly intruded into Scarborough Shoal and were expelled by the Chinese Coast Guard).
The affairs of the Philippines are not over yet, and another country in Southeast Asia has emerged, wanting to take advantage of the Sino-US conflict to change the Asia-Pacific pattern and maximize its own interests.
We still have to guard against the small calculations of these neighboring countries.
Southeast Asian countries are taking advantage of the US-China dispute
In the face of China's rapid rise, the United States is worried that China will attack its hegemony and suppress China as much as possible, and China will not give up its development rights because of the United States' suppression, so the competition between the two countries is extremely fierce.
Southeast Asian countries, which are at the strategic point of confrontation between China and the United States, are inevitably involved in the whirlpool of great power competition between China and the United States.
These countries are also powerless to change their position and extricate themselves from the competition between China and the United States, so they can only use their political wisdom to try their best to turn the crisis into an opportunity.
Southeast Asian countries are trying to maintain a balance between China and the United States).
Some countries, represented by Singapore and Vietnam, have opted for a "great power balancing strategy" and have tried to take advantage of both sides by playing between China and the United States.
The Philippines, on the other hand, has even greater ambitions, and they also want to take advantage of the United States' wariness of China and let the United States act as a thug to realize its own claims in the South China Sea.
Driven by this ambition, the Philippines has frequently launched provocations against China in the South China Sea since August this year, and China-Philippines relations have fallen into a low ebb.
Although many people feel that the Philippines' provocative behavior is very stupid and ridiculous, they are completely incapable of confronting China in the South China Sea, but will suffer key losses due to the deterioration of China-Philippines relations and the damage to China-Philippines cooperation.
But the Philippines is not entirely stupid, but they have misjudged their attitude towards the United States.
The Philippines is counting on US support)
In the original calculation of the Philippines, since the United States wants to contain China, the Philippines has taken the initiative to give the United States the step of intervening in the South China Sea, and the United States will quickly follow suit.
They are counting on the United States to come into conflict with China, and the Philippines can take advantage of the opportunity to take advantage of the South China Sea.
However, the United States is very active in fighting small countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, but it does not intend to go to war directly with a big country like China, just like when facing Russia, they also chose Ukraine.
This leaves the Philippines' plans in the air.
Now that the Philippines has offended China, ASEAN is dissatisfied with them for introducing foreign forces into the South China Sea, and the United States is only willing to pay lip service to China, but is unwilling to actually contribute, and the situation is somewhat embarrassing.
The United States only uses the Philippines as a gunman).
In addition to the Philippines, there is another country that is also planning to take advantage of the Sino-US dispute, and that country is Thailand.
Recently, Thailand is making a strong push to investors in the United States, China, Japan, Europe and the Middle East for its "Road and Bridge Project", which will build a kilometre-rail connection directly between Chumphon and Ranong, and has promised investors a 50-year right to operate.
The Thai side advertised that after the road and bridge are completed, transportation can be transferred through the road and bridge, and there is no need to be subject to the Strait of Malacca.
Judging from Thailand's emphasis on the "Malacca dilemma", although the United States, Japan and Europe have widely attracted investment, Thailand's main target is China.
Thai abacus has to be guarded against
Thailand's road and bridge plan may sound very tempting, but a closer analysis reveals that it is not very feasible.
Although the Thai side advertised that the "road and bridge" could save the cargo ship from 4-5 days of sailing, when saying this, Thailand obviously did not consider the issue of transshipment.
Loading and unloading cargo ships is a very troublesome matter, and considering that you have to transit from Thailand, you may have to go through two more rounds of customs declaration procedures, and this round of process may take more than 4-5 days.
Speaking of economic costs, loading and unloading must cost money, roads and bridges cost a lot of money to build, and they certainly can't let people go in vain, and it also costs money, and then Thailand may have to pay taxes.
In this way, it is really impossible to say which way is cheaper than going through the Strait of Malacca.
The time cost and economic cost are not advantageous, and the cargo transporter may not choose the "road and bridge".
In fact, even Thailand itself is well aware of this, and they say that at the current trend, the Strait of Malacca will reach its maximum capacity by 2030, and then "road and bridge" can become an alternative.
Therefore, "Road and Bridge" can only eat a little of the dividends of freight forwarders who have to divert due to Malacca's congestion, and it is difficult for investors to profit from the operation of "Road and Bridge".
Some people may think that avoiding the "Malacca dilemma" is more important than economic interests, but "roads and bridges" are by no means the best solution to the "Malacca dilemma".
Rather than trying to find a way to detour, China might as well use the money to develop its own naval power, as long as China's strength in Malacca surpasses that of the United States, the United States will never dare to do anything in Malacca.
However, there is a bigger problem with Thailand's "road and bridge" plan, which is the difficulty of implementation.
Although Thailand is full of enthusiasm for the "road and bridge" plan, but the voice of opposition in Thailand is also not small, and many people think that the "road and bridge" plan has limited economic benefits, is not environmentally friendly, and affects the lives of residents, so it is not worth fighting for it.
The political situation in Thailand is chaotic).
In this position, when the "road and bridge" plan is officially built, I don't know how many obstacles it will face.
Even, with the current chaotic political situation in Thailand, maybe in a few years before the "road and bridge" is built, the Thai opposition party comes to power, and it will directly stop you.
There are many problems with the "road and bridge" plan, and Thailand has put forward this plan to take advantage of the opportunity of Sino-US competition and China's worry about the "Malacca dilemma" to develop its own doctrine.
No matter how chicken the "road and bridge" plan is, it can bring economic benefits to Thailand, and in the process of "road and bridge" construction, Thailand can also solve the problem of backward infrastructure in southern Thailand.
Moreover, if the "road and bridge" is completed, it will affect the global shipping pattern to some extent, and the importance of Thailand in the Asia-Pacific region can also be increased.
Although we are happy to develop together with other countries, this kind of high-risk and low-return, making wedding dresses for others, forget it.
References
This neighboring country is going to do a big thing.