In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, although moving a few tens of meters a day, the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine have been fought into a war of attrition, and the outcome of the war seems to be far away.
However, if we broaden our horizons, the answer to the question may be clearer from a historical and developmental point of view.
Russia, trapped in its access to the sea, may not be able to achieve much more, and the gains made after hundreds of years of war are at risk of being lost in just two years.
Historically, the Kingdom of Sweden, the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and the United States have risen to become regional or global hegemons, and one of the common bases is their ability to dominate the sea.
With unobstructed sea lanes and virtually no obstacles, the projection capacity formed by relying on is much stronger than transporting by land. WhileIn the case of Russia, two access to the sea is restricted.
Russia has historically fought a long war for access to the sea.
The war between Tsarist Russia and Sweden lasted 248 years, from 1561 to 1809, during which there were eight wars. Peter the Great defeated Sweden in the Fifth War, seized the Gulf of Finland, and became the first outlet of the Tsarist Empire to the west.
And the war with the Ottoman Empire, which began in 1676 and lasted until 1881, totaled 205 years and reached 10 wars. In 1783, Catherine the Great seized control of the Black Sea, gaining Russia's access to the sea to the south.
However, these two key access points to the sea have been restricted in less than two years of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The former Black Sea Fleet faced a dilemma, Finland joined NATO, the US army was stationed in Finland, the German army was stationed in Lithuania, and Denmark also invited the US military to enter the Baltic Sea Estuary, resulting in the Russian Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad almost being abolished. Access to the sea from St. Petersburg along the Gulf of Finland to the Baltic Sea was restricted, and Russia's influence to the west was dealt a fatal blow.
During the Soviet era, the Black Sea shipping lane, which occupied 80% of the foreign ** transportation channels, was disabled by the Black Sea Fleet, and Russia could no longer fully control it. If the Black Sea Fleet is wiped out and Ukraine rebuilds its navy, Russia will face an even more dire situation.
If Russia eventually loses control of the Black Sea, it will mean losing sea power, and it will be difficult for Russia to become a big deal。Because to control the sea, it must have strong economic strength and manufacturing support, and the century-old navy also needs huge investment. Russia's current strength can no longer support its ambitions. Is it true that all the gains made over the past 200 years will be lost in two years?
The current state of the Black Sea Fleet is a vivid illustration of this. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, the situation of the Black Sea Fleet is food for thought. This is not only the result of a war, but also a warning to Russia's future sea power.