Financial Observation: The Enlightenment Behind the Wealth Allocation of the "Urban CBD Phenomenon".
Standing at the critical juncture of the year-end and New Year holidays, asset managers have released their market outlook and investment strategies for 2024.
In the view of many leading institutions, the current distribution of wealth is differentiated in terms of resource and capital allocation, which is in line with the new economic phenomenon that has emerged in China in recent years - the new dual structure.
Under this inspiration, it is recommended that high-net-worth individuals with good wealth liquidity and sufficient funds should optimize asset allocation, and fight against asset shrinkage by allocating high-end core "core" properties to successfully pass through the cycle.
Hidden Crisis——
From the rich to the masses, wealth continues to shrink quietly
In the current environment of lack of certainty, the economy is in the recovery stage, and what is the real situation of entrepreneurs and public wealth, let's analyze it
1. The total wealth of entrepreneurs decreased by 4% compared with last year
On October 24, the Hurun Research Institute released the "2023 Hengchang Burning Fang Hurun Report", and the number of people on this year's list and the total wealth have shrunk. A total of 1,241 entrepreneurs with a personal wealth of more than 5 billion yuan were on the list, a year-on-year decrease of 5% (64 people) and a decrease of 15% from two years ago. This is the second time in the 25-year history that the number of people on the list has decreased for two consecutive years. The total wealth of entrepreneurs on the list fell 4% (1 trillion) from last year to 235 trillion yuan.
2. Public assets are also not optimistic
According to wind data, since 2021, residents' assets have experienced negative year-on-year growth. In other words, the overall wealth of the whole people has shrunk compared to previous years.
Since 2001, the year-on-year trend of residents' assets, data**: wind, Huachuang**.
So, how did the wealth of the whole people quietly shrink?
Investing in wealth management and savings, wealth shrinkage is not immune
Analyzing the reasons for the shrinkage of wealth, Winshare Finance found that whether it is actively investing or lying flat in the bank, it is difficult to escape.
1. Take risks in investment and financial management and entrepreneurship, and suffer serious losses
Wind data shows that excluding products with no net value in the past six months, as of the first half of 2023, there are 926 wealth management products in the whole market with a unit net value of less than 1. Among them, there are 10 wealth management products with a net unit value of less than 08。From the perspective of the institutions to which wealth management products belong, many large state-owned banks and wealth management subsidiaries of joint-stock banks have also been on the "broken list", which shows its risks, and a large number of investors have withdrawn.
Data**: Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center.
Deposit interest rates continue to fall, and the more deposits there are, the more they depreciate
Some residents believe that depositing in a bank can preserve the value of their assets, however, this is not the case.
Comparing the interest rates of four banks with similar interest rate adjustment times in the past 8 years (2015-2023), the interest rates as a whole show a downward trend.
Roughly estimated, taking 1 million deposits for 5 years as an example, in the "universe line" Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the interest rate in April 2015, the income is 200,000;2022 interest rate, yield of 13250,000 yuan;2023 interest rate, yield of 11120,000 yuan.
Not only is the income reduced, but the money is not so valuable due to inflation.
Last year, China's currency** increased by 44 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) for a year, and as the over-issued money gradually flows into the real economy, there is a possibility of pushing up inflation.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
At present, there are already certain signs of inflation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, household consumption in October was **common**, mainly in the fields of education, culture and entertainment.
The harm of inflation, taking the daily butter consumed by British families as an example, many brands of butter have been reduced from the standard 250 grams to 200 grams although the ** has not changed. According to Fox Business**, beef and pork in the United States remained high due to persistent inflation, and ordinary consumers had to switch to slightly cheaper chicken.
Moreover, the current international situation is also unstableRecently, the Federal Reserve carried out a large-scale directional release of water, releasing 1With $817 trillion in liquidity given to 96 financial institutions, global inflation has begun to ripple through countries such as Lebanon and Brazil, with Lebanon's currency depreciating by more than 90%.
and the conflict of the House of Nations, in less than a year, has made the international market more than 50%, and the domestic oil price is inevitably many times.
All in all, the global financial landscape is changing, and we must respond carefully to this new situation and protect our wealth from inflation.
Wealth "protection war" -
Successfully avoid inflation and preserve the value of your assets
At present, the social environment of lying flat and waiting for opportunities has left room for high-quality buyers to "counterattack". As for which assets are more high-quality, we can analyze them from a historical perspective
Investment**
The data shows that in the past ten years, ** has risen all the way, from 280 yuan to 460 yuan.
In the wake of the U.S. banking crisis in March, unease drove investors into the international market. The international *** rekindled its upward momentum and climbed above $2,000 an ounce again. Spot *** rose to 2048 at one point during the session$71, about $30 short of the all-time high set in 2020.
Driven by this, the domestic market continued to rise. In September, the price of some brand jewelry even exceeded 600 yuan.
According to an investor, he bought 399 grams of accumulation funds at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China on August 16 last year, and now it has risen to 443 yuan, with an income of 11% in only eight months.
Quality property
Different from conventional products on the market, Winshare Finance believes that high-quality real estate is a potential property and a beneficiary of urban development dividends.
Therefore, high-quality real estate needs to meet the following four conditions: potential city, core location, and high-quality property, for example
Potential cities: In terms of city selection, high-quality properties need to be located in areas with strong development momentum, especially in new first-tier cities.
Judging from the data of the first three quarters of this year, the top 2 cities in GDP growth are Chengdu and Zhengzhou, leading the list of cities in the "GDP trillion club" and have strong development potential.
Chengdu achieved a GDP of 16114300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67%, higher than the national 15 percentage points;
Zhengzhou achieved a GDP of 10,435900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%, higher than the national 13 percentage points;
Core Area Lots:
Focusing on the interior of the city, each city has its own leading area, and the Jinshui District (1932.) has the highest GDP in Zhengzhou0.4 billion yuan), Chengdu's high-tech zone with the highest GDP (2248.).400 million yuan).
According to the core area of the CBD high-tech zone of the financial city, it occupies less than 004% of the total area contributes 5% of Chengdu's GDP, and the GDP is the highest in the city. There are more than 800 financial institutions, more than 300 Fortune 500 companies, and more than 400 large enterprise headquarters in the region.
The industry, core resources, and business districts of Chengdu High-tech Zone are concentrated on both sides of Jiaozi Avenue in the CBD of the Financial City, also known as the most expensive kilometer in Chengdu - "Avenue", and the rental level of commercial buildings such as Yintai Center and China Overseas International Center on both sides has always ranked among the best in Chengdu.
Marked by the landmark Twin Towers and the Ring of Jiaozi, it is a must-visit Internet celebrity check-in landmark for outsiders to Chengdu, and the Twin Towers receive about 10 million tourists during the Spring Festival, which is no less popular than Guangzhou's "small waist".
At present, the highest transaction price of second-hand housing prices in the region has exceeded 8w, and the unit price of renting is 5w yuan per month (taken from Huayue Mansion of Chengdu Yintai Center, the latest data of Anjuke in December).
From the original twin towers with five golden flowers, to the current Jiaozi Ring. After more than ten years of growth, there is still more potential in the Jiaozi business district of the financial city, and according to the "14th Five-Year Plan" of Chengdu Zhongyou and the planning of the Jiaozi Park business district, it will once again usher in opportunities for development.
Source: Chengdu Zhongyou"14th Five-Year Plan"Planning documents.
High-quality property: Looking at the world, the core location + high-quality property is the hard currency of the times, no matter any country in the world, this is an iron law of asset value, just like Tomson Yipin project in Lujiazui, Shanghai, Fan Yue 108 in Beijing International Trade, and Cullinan in Central, Hong Kong.
The properties on Jiaozi Avenue in the financial city, the core area of Chengdu, can be said to be the top of Chengdu's high-end properties, and they are all high-quality properties that buyers are actively grabbing.
Recently, some investment buyers have inspected high-quality properties in Xi'an, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing and other places, and after a period of comparison, they have purchased dozens of high-end hardcover apartments in Chengdu Oriental Hope Center Financial Yue and a small number of leased Grade A office buildings.
According to the data, Oriental Hope Financial Yue is one of the culmination works of more than ten years of development in the Jiaozi business district of the Financial City. The parent company, Oriental Hope Group, ranked 39th in the "2022 Top 500 Chinese Private Enterprises", has strong strength, and has joined hands with ARQ Architects, TCDL Chen Jianzhong, HWCD, and Jingdu Design, four international top design teams, to achieve the top-level heirloom assets of Chengdu Financial City with its unsurpassable location value and artistic value.
The overall planning and design of the project covers Grade A office buildings, high-end serviced apartments, boutique commercial and other property types, and enjoys the top resources of the first-line Jiaozi trendy business district.
The project is developed and constructed in two phases, and the first phase has been delivered and operated as a wholeThe second phase of Financial Joy covers super Grade A office buildings and high-end serviced apartments under construction. Among them, Yue is 10 hardcover apartments 45-98 only a few sources, 1The 0 version of the 122 president suite is upgraded to the market at the end of the year, and it is reported that other series of products of the project are still being upgraded0 products, whether it is the public lobby, the elevator hall or the 120-167 square meter president suite, are designed by the international first-line interior designer "Chen Jianzhong", who is known as the "Oscar" in the design industry.
For example, the rent of a set of about 98 square meters of Jiaozi Mansion is 9,000 yuan per month, and the rent of a single room in Jiaozihui has reached 6,045-12,220 yuan per month, which is much higher than the income of other assets held by themselves.
Nowadays, Oriental Hope, a major owner of high-quality self-sustaining operations, hopes that in the period of economic uncertainty and inflation, the port lot of Oriental Hope Center and Financial Yue will increase the empowerment of division-level products and golden key property services to give the property more and stronger urban value, so as to better protect the stability of wealth and the ability to resist risks.