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In the first part of Focus Media 01: Whether the core influencing factors can be used to guide the review of ** investment, I came to the following judgment on the company:
Focus is a company with long-term certainty of value, but the value is expressed in large fluctuations.
After the guidance of friends and thinking about past targets, I found several key mistakes in investment analysis, and recorded them, hoping to correct this problem in the future.
1.Wrong research methodology
In the previous article, the path of corporate research is that because of balabala, we are optimistic about companies. Although a "core influencing factor - economic downturn" was proposed, it did not continue to think downwards about coping strategies.
A large section discusses why companies are bullish, and this is the basic information that any investor can get with a little research. The author is neither in the media industry, nor in the macro sector, nor has the intelligence, ability, resources, and information beyond ordinary people, how can he obtain knowledge and insights that exceed the market average?
In the era of value investing cognitive vacuum, Munger and Warren Buffett, who read a lot of books, only discovered a pitiful few insights in their lives, why did every company I hold become not for sale?
Just trying to get a deterministic alpha through a little bit of information patchwork and basic thinking is not an effective path. Even if you succeed in achieving excess returns in the end, how much of it is your own credit and how much is God-given luck due to the depth of your research and time matching?Perhaps the biggest takeaway is feeling good about myself, and that's not what I'm here for.
In the extremely involuted market of A-shares, the competition is no longer whether you can find opportunities, but whether you can be the first to find opportunities and maintain a high winning rate.
Every **, there are always a lot of investors with you to study, many people's research ability is not under you, an investment opportunity, found more people, the stock price will rise, at this time you find again, it is likely that there is no cost performance.
There will be a series of signals before the investment opportunity, but based on the above reasons, wait until all the signals appear before buying, it is too late, it is best to start as long as the signal you think is the most important appears;The same goes for giving up, you can't wait until you scratch out "thank you for your patronage" to give up, you must know to give up when you see half a "thank you". "
Lesson 1:From the perspective of probability, it is extremely unlikely that you can put forward insights that surpass the vast majority of people, and find that it is worth holding the target for more than ten years, and it is very unlikely that several conditions will appear together, so don't be too confident in yourself.
In particular, it is appropriate to pay attention to ***Margin of safety and opportunity costThese two directions cannot be overemphasized.
If you need to rely on a bull market to make a profit, then you don't understand what value investing is, but value investing in a bear market can often be the most lucrative.
Lesson 2:Don't fall in love with your target, develop an execution strategy for negative factors in advance, don't turn a blind eye to everything that happens, and then use a hedge to escape, this hedge, is it 3 years or 30 years, can you say accurately?
The third article of experience:You need to have a reserve pool, otherwise it will always be more cost-effective to fall in love with the bid.
Since I can't form insights and make excess returns, do I still need to do research?Is there a solution to this problem?Perhaps, only by really understanding Warren Buffett, can I find the answer, through the recent communication with another friend in the group, observing the target he bought, and observing his operation methods, I am ready to try to learn Xi and evolve according to his ideas, and write it separately another day.
2.Lack of probabilistic cognition
Focus Media is closely related to the economic formThus exposing themselves to the risk of an economic downturn. As for whether China's GDP growth will be led by consumption out of the United States, or Japan's lost 30 years. Standing at the current node, I don't have the ability to judge.
Why did China go to the consumption drive of the United States, and why did it not experience the 30 years that Japan lost?I saw the future with additional data from my research on everything from economics to politics to human beingsOr the optimistic views of any expert V on the Internet, are those views the expression of the true voice of the heart!After all, true knowledge is always passed on by word of mouth;Or is it a steely faith that has no cause?If faith can really be eaten.
Since I am not capable of judging these things, I have to consider the existence of parallel worlds for this reason. Value investing without probabilistic thinking is not Warren Buffett.
Looking back on the case, a friend helped me explain the specific usage of Bayes:
First of all, Focus Media is not a rare insight in a lifetime, and its cyclical nature greatly increases the probability of buying back. Second, we really can't use negative information once to make a global evaluation.
June 6, the first negative information, can be vigilant, but need to continue to observe (stock price 63）。
On June 26, the second negative information increased the probability of an event of "the economy is not good, and Focus Media is affected". (Share price 6.)59）
On July 16, the third time there was bad news about the economy, and the stock price was still rising, it was time to consider running away in advance. (Share price 7.)33）
On September 8th, it was already the fourth signal, and it was estimated that it would be too late if it didn't run. (Share price 7.)4）
On December 10, there was too much negative news, and it was certain that Focus Media was going to face the cold, and it was too late to escape. (Share price 6.)
a=There is a signal in the group that the economy is not working.
A: Focus Media**;AA: Focus Media**;AAA: Focus Media**.
In the case of observing three A's, the probability of Focus Media** ending increases, and it can escape.
aaaaa:= Confirm that the stock price is not good, and it is too late to escape,This is the meaning of the order probability of events
3.Damn cyclical stocks
Charlie. Munger once said when reviewing Alibaba's **: "Alibaba occupies a very important position in the e-commerce business, but I haven't stopped to think, they are still a damn retailer. I may have been shocked by the e-commerce model, having overestimated Alibaba's rate of return. ”
It occurred to me that "Focus Media has a place in the domestic brand advertising space, but I haven't stopped to think that cyclical growth stocks are still a damn cyclical stock".
Juan's dad is also investing from the end of 2017 to April 2022, diversifying more than 30 targets, including multiple ** and various ** (index, industry, strategy, active), for a full 4 and a half years, I did not research, nor did I find a path that can be cut into, and at that stage I had the ability to control myself, very generous, and now in retrospect, I really wasted a lot of time, so that I came to pay off my debts now.
At that time, there were two cycle targets, one was a pure cycle, and the other was a cycle growth.
The brokerage ETF has been on a roller coaster for many rounds, and finally holds it for 3 years and 2 months, with an annualized rate of 316%, this is still bought when it is not expensive, otherwise it will be a proper loss.
*Price 0998RMB, held to 0884RMB, at that time, my own reflection was that the capital mismatch, long-term **, should not hold volatility without growth target.
Sany caught up with the upward cycle and held it for 3 years to 4241 yuan to sell 1 3, hold for 3 years and 3 months at 34$93 clearance. The former is on its way up, the logic of selling is that it has risen too much, and my cost is less than 7 yuan, and at that time PB has been 6+, and the highest rush to 50 after selling3 yuan;The latter is on its way down, and the logic of selling is that the growth rate of the annual report is less than expected, and the inflection point has arrived.
In fact, after that, Sany Heavy Industry's foreign exports have been growing rapidly, has been a model of cyclical growth, the market at that time was also optimistic about its future growth, but what the result is, now it is very clear, if I hold unmoved, from the end of 17 to the end of 23 in the 6 years, the annualized return of compound interest is about 12%.
This means that long-term holding of cyclical growth can achieve corresponding growth returns. I have already analyzed the return of Focus Media in my previous article.
It also represents,Cyclical growth: If you don't sell when there is a clear inflection point signal, you will lose a huge opportunity cost. Based on this, I will update my views on Focus Media and future operations.
4.You also need to confirm the logic of copying homework
The research of the father of the volume started from Lao Tang's articles, and many of the targets also started from copying Lao Tang's homework. Including the current holdings of Tencent and Focus;Shaanxi coal and Yanghe have been sold. However, for these targets, Dad Juan has not read a research report, nor has he studied them independently, but only confirmed the logic.
For the investment research ideas proposed in the previous part, I think it is still valid, but I want to add a clause: the core of investment research is the ability to discern logic, and in the case of judging logic, you can do it. The in-depth study of data can be postponed, after all, opportunities are hard to come byHowever, the data must be studied independently and double-checked for confirmation.
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