The war between China and the United States and the restrictions and bans listed by the two countries have been the focus of market attention.
However, the HBM of the AI server GPU is not restricted by the US ban. It seems that the restrictions on storage products in the United States have been relaxed and are no longer listed as an industry of high concern, but in fact, HBM itself is in short supply, and it is difficult for Chinese customers to buy it, so its downgraded AI may turn to use GDDP or old HBM as an alternative.
HBM market potential,SK hynix expects HBM to account for 15-19% of the total DRAM market in 2024, of which SK hynix's HBM3 and HBM3E production capacity for 2024 is fully booked, and customers are still discussing additional demand. According to market estimates, the supply of HBM bits will more than double annually in 2024, but new capacity will not be released until the second quarter of 2024
Overall, the demand for HBM2E and HBM3 to HBM3E and HBM4 products is changing very quickly, and many customers and partner companies have begun to discuss technical cooperation and capacity planning in 2025.
Even the first-tier cloud companies Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) AWS and Meta (Meta) have HBM production capacity scheduled to 2025 or HBM4 launch, so the storage giants have no spare capacity to sell to China.