Editor丨Zhongding Holding Group.
1. Last week's market review
Last week, overseas markets were generally **, and the Fed's unexpected "pivot" made the already excited market even more frenzied;In terms of A-shares, market sentiment remained sluggish, and the three major indexes continued to decline. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite Index was **091%, SZSE Component Index**176%, GEM refers to **231%, CSI 300**170%, the biggest drop in the Science and Technology 50, last week**239%。
In terms of industry sectors, last week was mixed as a wholeAccording to the first-level industry classification of Shenwan, a total of 13 industries maintained ** last week, of which 4A 21% increase topped the list, with media at 2A 47% increase came in second placeLast week, the overall performance of food and beverage, power equipment, and communications was relatively low, with ** 74% and 233%。
Chart 1: Major global stock indices have risen and fallen (%) in the last week
Chart 2: Last week's rise and fall in Shenwan's primary industry (%)
In terms of two integrationsAs of December 15, the balance of margin trading in the A** market was 16,7114 billion yuan (+32..)3.6 billion yuanMonth-on-month growth of 019%), accounting for 251%；The trading volume of the two financial institutions during the week was 32576.4 billion yuan (-85..)7.2 billion yuan,Month-on-month, it decreased by 256%), accounting for 812%。
In terms of industries, a total of 20 industries showed net inflows of financing funds and 11 industries showed net outflows of financing funds last week. Among them, the computer, non-bank finance, food and beverage, automobile and other industries ranked first, with the computer with 13The net ** amount of 0.4 billion yuan topped the list. Last week, the net outflow of margin financing and securities lending in the power equipment, pharmaceutical and biological, electronics and other industries ranked first, and the power equipment was 12The net outflow of 2.2 billion yuan was at the bottom of the list.
Figure 3: Shenwan's first-class industry weekly net financing (10,000 yuan).
In terms of northbound funding, Northbound funds continued to have a net outflow last week, with a net outflow of 1857.6 billion yuan. Among them, the northbound capital outflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 1082.5 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 77 northbound funds from Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect5 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the capital flow of the northbound capital industryAccording to Shenwan's first-level industry classification, a total of 9 industries were increased by northbound funds last week, and 22 industries were increased by northbound funds**. Specifically, last weekUtilities, automobiles, real estate, basic chemicals and other industries are more favored by northbound funds, the overall net inflow is the highest;Of these, utilities are marked by 7The net amount of 5.9 billion yuan topped the list;The car is finished with 4The net amount of 7.7 billion yuan ranked second. Last week, food and beverage, electronics, and medicine and biology suffered a sharp sell-off of northbound funds, with net outflows of 328.4 billion yuan, 230.3 billion and 217.8 billion yuan.
Figure 4: Shenwan's first-class industry northbound weekly net amount (100 million yuan).
2. Interpretation of macro data in November——
Establish first and then break, there is a long way to go
1. The economic recovery is still weak
On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's macroeconomic data for November, specifically: the industrial added value in November was 66% (previous value 4.)6%), and the service industry production index was 93% (previous value 7.)7%), the month of zero was 101% (previous value 7.)6%), the investment in fixed assets was converted to a year-on-year increase of 29% (previous value 1.)2%), all of which have risen significantly.
However, it should be noted that in the same period last year, China faced serious epidemic disruptions, and the economic data showed a significant low base, if the base effect is excluded, based on the two-year average monthly year-on-year growth rate, the growth rate of industrial added value in November was 44% (previous value 4.)8%), and the service sector production index was 35% (previous value 3.)8%), and 18% (previous value 3.)5%), fixed asset investment 18% (previous value 3.)1%), the data at both ends of supply and demand have dropped significantly, and the overall performance of the data is mediocre.
Overall, China's economy is still in the stage of bottoming out and repairing, and the supply side is better than the demand side. But the problem is still that the slope is not high, and the kinetic energy is still weak. This is also in line with the tone of the ** economic work conference on December 12: "effective demand is insufficient, overcapacity in some industries, social expectations are weak, there are still many risks and hidden dangers, there are blockages in the domestic circulation, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising."
2. The real estate market has not improved significantly
According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the two-year average year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to 1 in November8%, from the point of view, the growth rate of infrastructure is 95% (previous value 9.)1%), and the growth rate of manufacturing investment was 66% (previous value 6.)5%), both of which remained stable. The decline in fixed asset investment was mainly dragged down by real estate investment. The growth rate of real estate investment in November was -154%, compared with the previous value of -137% down 17 percentage points. From the perspective of various sub-items, the new construction area in November was 82.79 million square meters, a month-on-month growth rate of 174%, the new construction has been repaired to a certain extent, but it is still significantly lower than the level of the same period in history. The completed area was 100.86 million square meters, higher than the average of 99.28 million square meters in the same period in the past five years, an increase of 56 from October5%, and the completion end is relatively well repaired under the policy of guaranteed delivery. On the sales side, the sales area of commercial housing in November was 79.3 million square meters, basically the same as the previous value, but it was still the lowest level in the same period in history. The overall performance of domestic first-hand housing transactions was flat after the introduction of the new real estate policy. On December 14, Beijing and Shanghai both issued new regulations to significantly relax the identification standards for ordinary residences, which will reduce taxes and fees in the process of second-hand housing transactions, and further reduce the friction costs of second-hand housing transactions compared with first-hand houses, which is substantially good for second-hand housing transactions. At the same time, there is no risk of unfinished housing in second-hand housing, and the second-hand housing market may usher in the activation of liquidity, but the specific effect remains to be seen.
Chart 5: Investment in fixed assets and the year-on-year growth rate of each sub-item.
It is worth noting that there were positive changes in the financing of real estate enterprises in November. From January to November, the cumulative funds of real estate enterprises were -13 year-on-year4%, up 04%。From the perspective of capital splitting, the growth rate of domestic loans is -98%, self-raised - 203%, deposits and advance receipts - 109%, personal mortgage loans - 81%。The four items are respectively larger than the previous value1%、-0.5%、-0.5%。Among the funds of real estate enterprises, domestic loans have played a significant improvement, because the financial system has recently proposed "three not less than", the financing threshold of real estate enterprises has been further reduced, and credit funds have gradually flowed to real estate enterprises, thereby alleviating the problem of broken financing chain of real estate enterprises.
3. Establish first and then break, there is a long way to go
November's economic data was generally flat, with few bright spots. From the perspective of recent policy ideas, high-quality development will be the path of long-term development in the future. Industrial upgrading and transformation, key technology research, and smooth internal circulation have become the key directions of future efforts. However, in the short term, China's economy still needs to maintain a certain amount of investment in the traditional path. We can see from the economic data in November that, on the one hand, due to seasonal factors such as severe cold weather, the growth rate of generator set production is as high as 33 on a two-year average2%, a significant increase of 145%。The growth rate of fixed asset investment in various industries has also improved greatly in traditional industries such as railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment. On the other hand, the output of integrated circuits increased by 4 in November1%, an increase of 49%, becoming another product with a large improvement in industrial output.
However, on the whole, China's economy is facing the process of replacing old and new drivers, and it may take longer for the old drivers to fade, and the new drivers are also accelerating.
Figure 6: Growth rate of output of important industrial products.
Overall, we need to accept the process of reducing the volatility of economic data. On the other hand, the smoothing of policies will further lead to the smoothing of data, which also makes it more difficult for the market to judge the macroeconomy. The formation of market consensus expectations, in the short term or continue to "dilute the macro" direction, from this point of view, ** stocks may maintain a declining trend, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50, small cap stocks, micro cap stocks and other styles may be easier to obtain excess returns beyond the market.
3. Investment advice
Looking aheadThe short-term market index is affected by the weight and is difficult to change the weakness, but the activity of the market remains at a high level, and the market sentiment has not turned cold. The main problem in the market at present comes from the lack of confidence, and the short-term recurrence of economic data has a greater impact on sentiment, but in fact, the pattern of economic recovery has not changed. The recurrence of the economy and the market is a normal phenomenon when the cycle comes out of the low point, and we must maintain an objective approach.
From the perspective of economic policy, seeking progress in stability will be conducive to the steady recovery of the economy, although affected by the global economic downturn, the economic growth rate is difficult to return to the high growth rate of the past, but the transformation from quantity to quality will be more conducive to enhancing competitiveness. We need to have a correct understanding of this new normal of the economy, and at the same time, we must also have a clear understanding that the market will not rise rapidly. Therefore, we should not be too pessimistic about the market, we should be calm and objective, and wait patiently for the market to recover.
From a strategic point of view, the rebound of the weighted sectors still needs to wait, but there are still more trading opportunities, so we are still light and heavy in the short term, and the strategy is still based on trading and supplemented by allocation. More from the perspective of events, policy-related sectors will continue to be the focus of market funds, including:Technological innovation, state-owned enterprise reform, consumption, etc., still pay attention to the technology growth sector represented by TMTwhile paying attention to whether the market style switches.
Risk Warning:1The macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, and the corporate earnings of listed companies will be negatively affected
2.Monetary policy tightens more than expected, and market liquidity will be at risk of overtightening;
3.The evolution of overseas financial risks in a high-interest rate environment and the potential impact on the real economy.