Report Producer:People's livelihood**
The following is an excerpt from the original report.
1 The battery liquid cold plate is carried out directly with the battery in the battery thermal management system.
Hot-swappable parts.
The battery liquid cold plate is a part of the battery thermal management system that directly exchanges heat with the battery. The liquid cold plate is a product element of the liquid cooling radiator, and its heat dissipation principle is to process the flow channel in the metal plate, and the electronic components are installed on the surface of the water cooling plate and the heat conduction medium is coated between them, and the internal coolant enters from the inlet of the plate, and then takes away the heat conducted by the parts from the outlet. According to the different shapes and structures, the common liquid cold plates in the market at present mainly include harmonica tube type, stamping type, extrusion type, blowing type and other types. In the field of new energy vehicles, the battery liquid cold plate is a component that directly exchanges heat with the battery in the battery thermal management system, and the heat generated by the battery is transferred to the cooling device through the coolant in the flow channel of the liquid cold plate or the heat is transported to the battery through the coolant, so as to maintain the battery temperature in the range of 20 -35 that is most suitable for its working efficiency.
From the perspective of industrial chain structure, the upstream of the liquid cold plate industry is aluminum and copper raw material enterprises such as Chinalco Group and Zijin MiningThe midstream is the production of aluminum heat transfer materials such as Yinbang Co., Ltd. and Huafeng Aluminum, as well as the supporting processing enterprises of liquid cold plates such as Yinlun Co., Ltd. and NabaichuanDownstream terminal applications mainly include new energy vehicles, server liquid cooling, energy storage and other fields.
The production process of liquid cold plate includes the processing of aluminum heat transfer materials and the processing of liquid cold plate. In terms of the production process of liquid cold plate, although different types of liquid cold plate products under the same terminal application are different in structural design, the processing technology is highly similar. Taking aluminum heat transfer composite materials as an example, the pre-production process of liquid cold plate mainly includes the composite of materials, cold rolling, hot rolling and other links, among which composite and cold rolling are the core processes of water-cooled plate production, and cold rolling is the process of strong plastic deformation of hot-rolled coil or cast rolled coil under the recrystallization temperature. The semi-finished products after cold rolling have the characteristics of uniform microstructure, accurate dimensions and high surface quality. The back-end includes core assembly, brazing and air tightness testing of the front-end annealed and finished products.
Aluminum's physical advantages make it a prime choice for heat transfer materials in the transportation sector. In terms of quality and processing, aluminum has a density of 269g cm3, which is only 34% of the density of steel and 30% of the density of copper. And aluminum can improve the material properties by adding alloying elements, has excellent shaping, and can be processed into complex properties;In terms of thermal conductivity, aluminium has a thermal conductivity of 247 W m·k, which is slightly lower than silver (411 W m·k) and copper (398 W m·k) but much higher than iron (73 W m·k). Therefore, aluminum is a commonly used metal heat transfer material in the industry.
The composite materials used in water-cooled plates generally use 3 series aluminum alloy as the core material and 4 series aluminum alloy as the composite layer. Thermite heat transfer composite material is a new type of aluminum alloy material based on the core material of aluminum-manganese 3 series alloy, that is, the core material, which uses the rolling composite process to form metallurgical combination on the contact surface of the core material and one or more grades of aluminum alloy with different physical and chemical properties. Compared with a single metal, the combination of different metals can make its physical and chemical properties more superior, and the thermal expansion, thermal conductivity, strength, corrosion resistance and electrical conductivity can be greatly improved.
The core material is composed of aluminum-manganese 3 series aluminum alloy, which plays the role of strength support and heat dissipationThe composite layer is constructed of an aluminum-silicon 4-series alloy or other grades of aluminum alloy that is used to braze or improve the overall material properties. Taking Huafon Aluminum's water-cooled plate material as an example, the core material is mainly 3003 grade aluminum alloy, and the composite layer is mainly 4343 grade aluminum alloy.
2. The industry barriers are high, and the scale advantage of the head enterprises is significant.
The material barrier of liquid cold plate is high, mainly in three aspects: complex process, long chain certification cycle, and large investment in factory construction. In terms of process barriers: the aluminum brazing composite material has a long manufacturing process, which needs to go through multiple rolling processes, and the theoretical yield is 70%, and the actual yield is about 67-68%. Referring to the Technical Characteristics and Development Trend of Aluminum Base Alloy Rolling Composite for Heat Transfer, the composite heat transfer composites should not only be cleaned at the composite interface to fully remove the oxide layer and surface oil stains during the composite processAt the same time, the design of the pass processing rate when the hot rolling composite is also deeply studied, and the processing rate of the pass is too small, so that the desired deformation is only produced in the leather layer, so that the leather extends upwards and cannot realize the combination of the leather and the core materialExcessive processing rate will make the deformation zone go deep into the depth, and the fresh metal cannot be fully exposed at the composite interface, so it is difficult to realize the effective combination of leather and core materialThe heating process and the opening temperature, if the temperature is too high, may melt the leather;The heating time is too short, and the temperature of the billet may be uneven, and the metal extension is uneven due to the temperature difference during rolling, and the rolling phenomenon will occur and scrap in serious casesIn addition, the control of the final rolling temperature and the condition and performance of the material will also have an impact on the product quality and production yield, and the composite production process is complex and detailed.
In terms of investment barriers to factory construction: the aluminum rolling processing industry where the production of aluminum matrix composite materials is produced is a high-energy consumption industry, so the energy consumption limit for investment and construction is highIn addition, the overall investment scale of the industry is large, the demand for working capital is high, and the construction period is long, especially in the rolling equipment, the main components are customized, and the construction period is basically more than two years, plus the installation and commissioning time, the whole generally takes more than three years.
* In terms of chain barriers, the automotive industry has a 2-3 year introduction period: Referring to Puhua Youce's explanation, generally speaking, the automotive industry has a 2-3 year introduction period, and parts companies first need to pass the IATF16949:2016 quality management system certification of an independent third party, and then go through the strict audit of the auditor to meet the requirements in terms of R&D capabilities, procurement management, production technology, quality control, etc., and only after passing the supply test can they become qualified suppliers, and the overall certification cycle of customers is longer; In addition, the wide range of downstream models makes aluminum heat transfer products highly customizable, with a wide variety of products and complex size specifications. Therefore, the current major manufacturers have been deeply bound to customers, and it is difficult for new entrants to easily break the barriers of the first chain.
Barriers such as complex production processes shape the high concentration of the industry. Due to the high barriers to the industry, there are only three major companies in the market: Granges, Huafon Aluminum and Yinbang, and the industry CR3 exceeds 60%. Gränges Aluminium is one of the world's leading producers of aluminium extrusions, with a 25% global market share in its brazed heat exchanger business, with sales volumes of around 29 in 202240,000 tons. Huafon Aluminum is currently the largest producer of aluminum heat transfer materials in China, with an existing production capacity of 34-350,000 tons, and a production capacity of 150,000 tons under construction, with a sales volume of 29 in 2022370,000 tons;Yinbang Co., Ltd. mainly produces aluminum heat transfer materials for brazing, aluminum steel composite strip materials and other products, and is one of the main manufacturers of aluminum steel composite strips for power station air cooling systems in China, with a sales volume of about 170,000 tons of composite materials in 2022.
3 The market for liquid cold plates driven by battery thermal management of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly.
3.1 Compared with traditional models, new energy vehicles have more demand for aluminum for heat transfer.
Liquid cooling is the main solution for battery thermal management systems in power vehicles. For new energy vehicles, battery thermal management system (BTMS) technology is mainly divided into air cooling, liquid cooling, phase change material cooling and heat pipe cooling. At present, car companies including BYD, BAIC, GAC, Buick, Yundu, JAC, and Xpeng Motors have embraced liquid cooling technology solutions, and typical models at home and abroad, such as BMW i3, Tesla Models, GM Volt, BMW Brilliance Zhinuo, Geely Emgrand EV, etc., have also adopted liquid cooling technology. According to IDTechEx, about 70% of electric vehicles were liquid-cooled in the first half of 2022, and NE expects more than 80% of the passenger car market to be liquid-cooled by 2025.
Compared with traditional models, new energy vehicles have more demand for aluminum for heat transfer. The automotive thermal management system includes condensers, evaporators, water tank radiators, intercoolers, heaters, oil coolers and other components. According to the estimates provided by Ducker, there is a further trend towards the increase in the amount of aluminum used in various components in the vehicle in 2030.
The driving factors for the increase in the amount of aluminum used in bicycles are the improvement of battery energy density and the optimization of space structure. On June 23, 2022, CATL released the third-generation CTP-Kirin battery, which has an energy density of 255Wh kg for ternary battery systems and 160Wh kg for lithium iron phosphate batteries while the volume utilization rate has exceeded 72%. In terms of structure and function, in addition to the heat dissipation area of the Kirin battery water cooling plate is four times that of the traditional solution, it also takes into account the other responsibilities of structural support, cell heat insulation and expansion buffering. From the perspective of development trends, in the future, under the condition that the development of material properties is gradually facing bottlenecks, aluminum for automotive heat transfer should not only be used as a rigid demand for heat dissipation function, but also realize iterative updates in terms of performance, structure, process and dosage, so as to meet the potential more requirements such as battery space utilization, structural component substitution and thermal insulation performance.
The popularity of new energy vehicles is the main driver for the expansion of water-cooled plates in the automotive thermal management market. According to the data released by the IEA, although global vehicle sales in 2022 fell by 3% due to the impact of **chain disruption and geopolitical conflicts, the sales and share of new energy vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), still achieved growth against the trend, with sales volume increasing by 55% year-on-year;According to the data released by the Passenger Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2023 will be about 358%, an increase of 8 percentage points over the whole of last year. GlobalData predicts that by 2030, more than half of the world's passenger car sales** will be sold in new energy vehicles, and the popularity of new energy vehicles indicates that there will be a broad market space for water-cooled plates in the transportation field.
3.2 The global liquid cold plate market size will reach 36180,000 tons, with a CAGR of 32 from 2022 to 202738%
Refer to public data to calculate the global passenger car water cooling plate market from 2020 to 2027. Among them, the sales data refer to the public information of Statista and China Business Intelligence Network, and the sales volume in the next three years has been smoothedThe sales proportion of each model refers to the data of Markline and GlobalData, and the liquid cold plate refers to the announcement of Yinbang Co., Ltd. conservatively giving the mass of 11kg in 2023, and the amount of liquid cold plate for hybrid vehicles is one-half of that of pure electric vehicles, and gives a certain growth space for the amount of liquid cold plate for new energy vehicles, so as to obtain the market size and market growth rate of new energy liquid cold plate.
We believe that: 1) Benefiting from the recovery of passenger car sales and the popularity of new energy vehicles, the global new energy vehicle water-cooled plate market will reach 1450,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6296%；2) With the slowdown in the growth rate of passenger car sales and the gradual penetration of new energy vehicles, it is expected that the growth rate of the new energy vehicle water-cooled plate market will gradually slow down in the future and stabilize at the level of 20-25%;3) It is expected that the new energy vehicle water-cooled plate market will reach 36180,000 tons, with a CAGR of 32 from 2022 to 202738%。
3.3. Liquid-cooled charging piles open up new markets for new energy infrastructure.
Charging piles play a key role as the infrastructure of new energy vehicles. In addition to the endurance of the car itself, the charging pile is a charging device for electric vehicles to provide energy supplement, and its function is similar to that of a fuel dispenser in a gas station, which is installed in public buildings and residential parking lots or charging stations, and can charge various types of electric vehicles according to different voltage levels. In the context of the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles, China's charging pile market is becoming increasingly huge. According to national data, as of the end of June 2023, China has built more than 6.6 million charging piles of various types and more than 2,200 battery swap stations.
According to the classification of different charging technologies, the charging mode of charging pile can be divided into AC charging and DC charging. AC charging, also known as "slow charging", means that the charging pile inputs the alternating current of the electric vehicle, and the electric vehicle transforms and rectifies the alternating current of the power grid through the on-board charger (OBC), converts it into direct current, and then charges the power battery. DC charging, also known as "fast charging", means that the alternating current input from the grid is rectified into direct current through the charging module built-in DC charging pile, and then input to the power battery inside the electric vehicle through the charging gun. Compared with AC charging, DC charging generally has the characteristics of high power and fast charging, the technology and equipment are more complex than AC charging, and the manufacturing cost and installation cost of DC charging piles are also higher, which is more suitable for application scenarios with high charging rate requirements.
China's charging pile market is developing rapidly, and the number of charging piles is rising at an accelerated pace. Under the background of the continuous increase in the sales and ownership of new energy vehicles and the support of national policies, the construction of charging infrastructure in China has entered a stage of rapid development. According to data from the Charging Alliance, the number of charging piles in Chinese mainland reached 520 at the end of 2022960,000 units, with an average compound annual growth rate of 6351%。Among them, 76 public DC charging piles100,000 units, 103 public AC charging piles600,000 units, both of which achieved significant growth.
Huawei has released fully liquid-cooled ultra-fast charging piles, and the layout will exceed 100,000 by the end of 2024. In April 2023, Huawei officially released the "next-generation all-liquid-cooled supercharging architecture" charging network solution at the 20th Shanghai International Exhibition, which integrates optical storage and achieves a ten-year IRR improvement of 66 through "one architecture, two synergies, and three extremes".7%。Liquid cooling and heat dissipation ensure the 10-year service life of the equipment, fully modular to build a single cabinet with a maximum power of 720kW, 12 gun line outputs, power sharing to increase the utilization rate of mains power by 30%, and achieve a 40% reduction in TCO throughout the life cycle. On November 28, at the launch of the Zhijie S7 and Huawei's all-scenario new products, Yu Chengdong, Huawei's Executive Director, CEO of Device BG, and Chairman of Intelligent Vehicle Solution BU, predicted that by the end of 2024, Huawei's fully liquid-cooled supercharging pile layout will exceed 100,000.
From the trend point of view, the penetration of liquid cooling solutions is a comprehensive choice of charging efficiency and safety of use. Referring to the description of Xiaode Thermal Energy Technology, the current charging pile market presents the following development trends: DC instead of AC, charging module high-power and standardization, liquid cooling instead of air cooling heat dissipation, and OBC. At the same time, the high-power trend of the charging module will further improve the energy density of the battery in a certain volume, and the fast charging will increase the current and heat production obviously, and the heat dissipation capacity requirements for the charging equipment will be significantly improved, and the liquid cooling technology will be widely used under the trend of high-voltage fast charging.
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