According to the Financial Times, December 26, a survey of economists by the Financial Times showed that although wage growth in the euro area exceeded inflation for the first time in three years, the region's economy is expected to achieve only modest growth next year.
Nearly two-thirds of the 48 economists surveyed by the Financial Times** said they believed the eurozone was already in recession. A recession is usually defined when GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters from the previous quarter.
Paul Hollingsworth, chief European economist at BNP Paribas, said: "We wouldn't describe this as a full-blown recession;Rather, it will still be characterized as stagnant. Importantly, we will continue to see a slow recovery in 2024, not further deterioration. ”
For the majority of respondents**, the current economic contraction will be mild and short-lived, with a return to modest positive growth in the first quarter of 2024. However, they expect weaker growth next year, with higher interest rates, potential energy market turmoil and geopolitical instability leading to a deeper recession.
According to a comprehensive group of economists, the eurozone economy will grow by just over 0 next year6%。Most are more pessimistic than the ECB and the International Monetary Organization, which each ** will grow the eurozone economy by 08% and 12%。
Mahmoud Pradan, head of global macroeconomics at Amundi Asset Management, said the biggest risks for the eurozone were "prolonged tightening monetary policy – including an accelerated pace of balance sheet reduction – and a reduction in supportive fiscal policy, especially in Germany".
Two-thirds of respondents believe that the German economy, which has been shrinking for most of 2023, will return to positive growth next year. But Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank, said that after the German Supreme Court left a budget gap of 60 billion euros, "Germany will tighten fiscal policy significantly", which means that the German economy will shrink by 02%。More than half of economists believe that another energy crisis is still possible next year, despite Europe's abundant natural gas reserves this winter and oil prices.
Catherine Nice, chief European economist at PGIM Fixed Income, said: "Europe is still constrained in terms of energy, so any concerns about energy could lead to a significant increase.
Economists say eurozone inflation is expected to fall close to the ECB's 2% target in less than two years. The average increase in their consumption next year will be slightly more than 25% and just under 20251%。
Economists expect wage growth in the eurozone to be just under 4% next year, lower than the ECB's 46%**, but still implies the first increase in real household income in three years.