The curtain is coming down on 2023.
Looking back on the ups and downs of this year, it is a year of magic and a year of change.
In 2023, the wine industry is looking forward to the post-epidemic market recovery, but the reality is that it is facing inventory hoarding, and major importers are selling goods to clear inventoryWine imports are declining, and production in the world's major producing regions is declining;Shipping, manpower, raw material costs**, exchange rate changes, imported wine** rising;The market downturn has forced the terminal to derive new formats and new models;Domestic fine wine breaks the high-end catering ......
The WBO has conducted a review of the wine industry throughout the year and summarized ten key words, which is the truest portrayal of the wine industry in 2023, and may give the industry some thinking and inspiration.
Destocking
This year, "destocking" has become the "main theme" of major wine importers and distributors. Although the beginning of the year after the end of the epidemic ushered in a wave of market "warmth", it was quickly covered by the "chill" of weakening consumer demand and insufficient consumer confidence.
According to the WBO's survey throughout the year, the imported wines in each segment have different inventory pressures. Due to the large inventory of fine wines from Bordeaux Cru 4 and 5 and wines from well-known small appellations, some distributors sold their products at a retail price 10% lower than the purchase price. Domestic Burgundy fine wine** has declined significantly, about 10% of the decline, of which the price reduction of ultra-high-end "big wine" is more obvious.
A number of imported wine merchants also said that the inventory of low-end wine is large and cannot be sold, so that there is nothing to throw away. At the end of the year, some small importers even chose to clear their inventory and withdraw from the industry.
Destocking lasted from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and some importers recently said that "the inventory is almost cleared", and next year will be more cautious in the selection of purchases.
Volume fell
The wine import data from January to November this year is not optimistic. Compared with the same period in 2022, the volume of wine imports decreased respectively. 42%, with a clear downward trend. This is inseparable from the huge domestic inventory and insufficient consumer demand mentioned above.
It is worth noting that the import data of wine in November has rebounded significantly compared with the trough in October, and the import volume has increased by 51% month-on-month87%, and the import value increased by 26 month-on-month18%, which is related to the Spring Festival stocking, which is good news. Previously, the WBO had been declining import data for a year, and it will usher in the end of the year, and the actual data also confirmed this speculation.
Up
The price increase of imported wine has also continued this year, but this year it is even more magical. Shipping, manpower, raw material costs**, exchange rate changes, imported wine** rising;
From the exchange rate changes, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar all the way to "break seven", and the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB rose to 1:78678 broke a new high, and the exchange rate became a key factor in the price increase of wine. In December, Asia-Europe shipping was in a hurry, shipping ** will double, and the cost of wine will also usher in new pressure.
Oak barrels are also rising, French oak barrels as a whole are 10%-15%, and American oak barrels are also rising, with a price increase of 10%-15%. This puts pressure on the cost of mid-to-high-end wines of domestic wineries.
Combined with the above factors, according to customs data, the average price of bottled wine in France has increased by 10%The average price of bottled wine in Chile is 76%；The average price of bottled wine in Italy is 27%;The average price of bottled wine in Spain has increased by almost 30%.
"Mid-Autumn Festival cold".
This year's Mid-Autumn Festival is known as the "lightest Mid-Autumn Festival" by the industry. Combined with the WBO's tracking report on the entire Mid-Autumn Festival this year, the situation is indeed not optimistic.
WBO surveyed more than 10 dealers in Sichuan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, Shaanxi and other regional markets this year, and they all said that the Mid-Autumn Festival sales situation was not as optimistic as expected, and this year's Mid-Autumn Festival sales were generally not ideal, and customer enthusiasm was greatly reduced......
In addition to the sluggish sales of traditional channels, a number of wine merchants in online and emerging channels also reported a decline in orders from their non-traditional online channels.
Importers' shipments were cut in half, and the performance of some dealers fell by 40% compared with the epidemic last year. Dealer inventory is high, the channel turnover rate is not high, according to the WBO survey in December, many dealers have postponed the Spring Festival stocking time.
Structural adjustment
According to the WBO's market research, Bordeaux fine wines have been under pressure in both volume and price this year, and some of the originally sought-after winery products** have been rolled to the bottom range in recent years. This is based on the fact that the inventory in the Chinese market is too large, and importers and distributors have to sell at low prices, which also leads to the situation that Bordeaux has a spot decline and a rise.
Judging from the trading index of the major producing areas of the well-known fine wine trading institution Liv-EX, almost all of them also fell. Among them, the Liv-Ex Bordeaux 500, which represents the overall trading of the Bordeaux appellation, fell by 93%；The Burgundy 150 index, which represents the Burgundy region, fell to 15 in a year4%；Champagne and the Rhône valley fell by around 20%.
A person in charge of a Sichuan importer said that its Bordeaux OEM products, which originally accounted for more than 40%, although they now account for less than 30%, have still significantly reduced sales this year. The entire imported wine market has changed, the era of OEM products has basically ended, and the overall product structure has been adjusted on a large scale.
Terminal changes
Since the beginning of this year, in order to survive, the liquor retail terminal has derived a lot of new formats and new ways to play.
The WBO observed a number of new terminal formats this year: the emergence of community taverns that sell "emotional value";"Highway store", an emerging ready-to-drink type of alcohol;More than 20 restaurants and bars in Shanghai opened "99 yuan to drink dozens of wines"...
This kind of new night club format not only has opened up its own positioning of consumer groups and sales models of affordable products in the traditional night market channels, but also has been closer to young people, impressing consumers with emotions and achieving good results and dynamic sales.
The predicament of the industry has forced out new formats, models, and ways of playing, and has also promoted the development and innovation of the industry, which is also the embodiment of the vitality of the industry.
Chinese phalanx
In the unfavorable economic environment at home and abroad, China's fine wines have gradually formed a phalanx, if a few years ago there were still a few Chinese wineries fighting alone, this year it is clearly felt.
Twenty or thirty wineries are working on fine wines, both in terms of quality and brand promotion, and this camp has begun to have a good vitality. Let consumers feel that China is also making world-class liquor.
These wineries are rich in traditional Chinese culture in terms of winery and brand name, packaging design and wine structure, and consumers also feel more Chinese style elements.
In addition, high-end restaurants have previously been a battleground for imported fine wines. The WBO observed that this year, many domestic fine wines have not only entered the wine lists of high-end restaurants, but also done well in the overall promotion. Through continuous development, inviting sommeliers to visit, learn and taste wine in the winery, and inviting managers and sommeliers of many hotels and restaurants in Shanghai to participate in grape harvesting in the winery, nearly 20 boutique wineries such as Changyu Longyu Winery, Shandong Boutique Winery Longting, and Ningxia Meihe Winery have entered the high-end catering channel. It reflects the continuous improvement of the quality of Chinese wines, and the market recognition at home and abroad is also increasing.
The "China Phalanx" formed by China's fine wines is forming a strong force in the wine industry to promote the development of domestic wines.
Australian wine
Australian wine is one of the most talked about topics in the wine industry this year. The industry generally believes that Australian wine, as the top of the industry, will have a great leadership in the industry if it returns to the Chinese market, which will also boost the confidence of the industry.
Since the beginning of the year, the WBO has published a total of six tracking reports on Australian wine. In February, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce expressed his stance on anti-dumping duties on Australian wines, saying that "China is willing to communicate on some technical issues of mutual concern to each other and find mutually beneficial and win-win solutions." On October 22, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said that under the framework of the WTO, China and Australia have conducted friendly consultations on WTO disputes such as wine of mutual concern, and reached a consensus on proper settlementOn November 30, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued an announcement to review the anti-dumping measures and countervailing measures applicable to the import of relevant wines originating in Australia from November 30, 2023.
At the end of October, after investigation, wine merchants estimated that there should be no less than 300 containers to be cleared in each bonded area. How will Australia digest after returning to the Chinese market?Did it cause a ** war in Australian wine?It is worth observing.
"Dry white hot".
In the wine category, "dry white" is definitely a hot topic this year.
WBO found in research and statistics that before 2021, the market share of red and white wine in China was about 9:1, but with the rapid development of white wine, its market share has increased to about 20%.
In addition, in 2022 and the first half of 2023, when the total volume of domestic and imported wines is shrinking, the white wine market is also growing against the trend, such as Qingdao Huadong Wine, German Luson Winery, and Dynasty White Wine sales data have increased, of which the dry white revenue of East China Wine has reached 60% of the company's total revenue.
Germany's Riesling and New Zealand's Sauvignon Blanc also performed well in the Chinese market. Customs data shows that New Zealand wine imports increased by 34% from January to September, and imports increased by 27%. More than 90% of the white wine in Germany and New Zealand is exported to the Chinese market, which shows its popularity.
"Dry white" has also earned enough topics and sales in the Chinese market this year.
New Infringement Routines
In 2023, the wine industry will continue to infringe and renovate its tricks.
At the same time, it infringes on a number of wine companies, and combines multiple logos into one product. This year, Qingdao Sparkling World sued a sparkling wine sold on Tmall for allegedly falsifying its company's import procedures. However, the appearance is suspected of infringing on the products of another Spanish winery, and the company suspected of counterfeiting was originally a distributor of the world.
In addition, there is also a Chilean "** Valley" wine with a price of 78 yuan for 6 bottles, which is equivalent to a unit price of only 13 yuan. This so-called Chilean liquor is actually domestically produced, and the label and name are also suspected of infringing the intellectual property rights of the Australian Swan Wine Group.
The rate of infringement is fast. A vertical e-commerce platform for alcohol saw a product that only sold for 55 yuan bottles, and its product appearance was highly similar to the new creative and trendy wine series "One by Penfolds", which Penfolds launched in the Chinese market on September 29, 2022, from the logo to the wine label pattern.