South Korea collapsed, and Japan enjoyed the dividends of the century.
South Korea-Japan relations can be summed up in one sentence: "The ties of history and the pressure of reality." "The dispute between the two countries has had a profound impact on the regional political landscape.
After World War II, they were both under the control of the United States, which complicated and varied their relationship. South Korea's historical hatred of Japan is still reflected in the "war of revenge" in the economic and trade fields.
In the last century, Japan launched colonial aggression everywhere, and South Korea also spent 36 difficult years under its occupation. After World War II, the international order has undergone earth-shaking changes, and the two East Asian countries are fighting openly and covertly in various fields.
Japan has taken the lead in seizing the historical opportunity and finding a new path of development, and although South Korea does not think of it on the surface, it has been following Japan's example in private, learning Xi from its experience and trying to surpass it.
South Korea has been persevering in order to achieve this goal, especially in the 90s, when the Japanese economy was at one point stagnant and was called the "lost 20 years".
At this stage, South Korea rose to the challenge and finally achieved some remarkable results. The two countries have jointly carried out a series of work under the coordination of the United States. However, when it comes to those historical issues, the scene becomes awkward.
First of all, there is the issue of Japan's forced conscription during the period of colonial rule. At that time, the Japanese fascists set up comfort stations in various theaters of war, and the number of these comfort stations was huge for front-line soldiers, so a large number of comfort stations were also needed to provide services.
Although many related materials were destroyed after Japan's defeat in World War II, historians still estimated the number of ***, which is between 300,000 and 400,000.
Japan's post-war intransigence led to continued twists and turns in Japan-South Korea relations, especially the *** issue. In addition, during the Asian War, Japan forcibly recruited Korean laborers on a large scale, and according to incomplete statistics, from 1910 to 1945, during Japan's colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula, as many as 780,000 laborers were forcibly recruited.
These laborers are subjected to inhumane treatment on various construction sites, and the foremen also adopt a system of joint sitting, and accidents at construction sites are frequent, which seriously affects the social construction of the DPRK.
Towards the end of World War II, they secretly disposed of a large number of factories and mines, and even killed a large number of laborers, in order to cover up their crimes, and later refused to acknowledge this history. South Korea conducted in-depth research on this, and vividly depicted the tragic plight of Korean laborers at that time through the movie "** Island".
The people of the Korean Peninsula were humiliated for a long time and did not regain their sovereignty until 1945. However, because the United States and the Soviet Union drew the 38th parallel on the peninsula, a situation of confrontation between the north and the south was formed.
After the failure to achieve reunification, South Korea made economic development a top priority, hoping to take advantage of this shame and strive to improve its economic size and surpass Japan.
In the 90s of the last century, Japan and South Korea entered a critical stage of development. In 1990, Japan's GDP per capita was 36 times, but this gap is not set in stone.
Japan, as an island nation, has limited resources and insufficient land area. In the past, they pursued the expansion of their territory, but now, they prefer to participate in the international ** and seek development through high-profit industries.
Their contempt for South Korea is not only based on economic considerations, but also on political factors. From a geopolitical point of view, the right of the Korean Peninsula countries to make their own decisions is limited, and even if resources are invested, the returns may not be ideal.
Surrounded by powerful countries such as China, Russia, and Japan, the geopolitical situation on the Korean Peninsula is quite delicate. Any major incident could lead to a shift in South Korea's position, which undoubtedly unnerved Japan, as they did not want to have a close relationship with an unreliable partner.
Japanese politicians always dream of changing their own environment by co-opting regional powers such as the United States, China, and Russia, while they do not have much investment and expectations for South Korea.
In fact, the direction of South Korea-Japan relations does not depend entirely on the two countries themselves, but is heavily influenced by the United States. The United States has always adhered to hegemonism and practiced a strict alliance management system.
At the same time, the economic development of South Korea and Japan is largely dependent on the support of the United States. So, in a sense, Japan and South Korea trust the United States far more than they trust each other.
Post-Cold War international relations have taken on a striking characteristic, that is"Trilateral relations"The rise of . The emergence of this phenomenon is the result of economic globalization and the multipolarization of the world.
Economic globalization has increased the dependence between countries, and various contradictions have become increasingly apparent"Trilateral relations"On the whole, it shows the characteristics of relative balance and competitive elasticity.
Asia has generally been peaceful and stable since 1991, but this is far from being eliminated"Competition at the strategic level"There is still a long way to go. In addition, relations between China, Japan, and South Korea were also often antagonistic after the Cold War, and although they improved at some point, this was far from the real one"Mutual trust"There is still a big gap.
With the passage of time, the economic level and industry of Japan and South Korea have also changed, and according to the IMD Country Competitiveness Ranking, in 1995, South Korea ranked 26th, and Japan ranked 4thIn 2020, the two sides were 23rd and 34th, respectively.
Both countries attach great importance to the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector, and in 1990, South Korea and Japan ranked 17th and 2nd respectively in the Industrial Competitiveness Performance IndexBy 2018, South Korea had risen to No. 3, but Japan had fallen to No. 5.
After entering the 21st century, both countries focus on high-tech manufacturing, and both have corresponding support policies. Among the world's top 100 largest companies by market capitalization, South Korea's Samsung, ranked 14th, while Japan's Toyota Motor ranked 36th.
In terms of key industries, South Korea has caught up with Japan in semiconductors, televisions, shipbuilding, mobile phone manufacturing and other fields, although the gap between South Korea and Japan in the automobile, chemical, steel and other fields is gradually narrowing, and the competition between South Korea and Japan is very obvious in these industries.
If South Korea's economy stagnates, Japan will be the biggest winner. Although South Korea has historical grievances against Japan, it is inseparable from Japan in terms of economy, especially in technology, materials and parts.
Due to the increasing deficit of South Korea against Japan, Japan dared to wage a war against South Korea. In the face of Japan's blockade, South Korea's Moon Jae-in said that the crisis should be turned into an opportunity so that South Korea can benefit from it.
At first, Japan may not have anticipated a counterattack by South Korea in many areas, but they can do very little. However, once South Korea was "full-fledged", it was able to bravely meet the challenge from Japan and grow stronger in battle, even having enough courage to say tough words.
Japan-South Korea relations still face challenges in the new era, especially in 2018 and 2019, when differences and mutual suspicions between the two countries intensified, leading to deepening contradictions.
In the past two years, problems such as "forced labor" have frequently appeared, coupled with incidents such as fire control radar irradiation, export controls, and wars, which have escalated friction between Japan and South Korea.
In such a situation, the level of mutual trust between the two parties will inevitably be affected. When South Korea tried to abandon the CSMIA agreement, it immediately urged South Korea to abide by the agreement in order to restore mutual trust between the two countries.
However, Japan has also restricted the export of strategic goods to South Korea, citing "the lack of an effective regulatory mechanism in South Korea."
In the confrontation between Moon Jae-in and ***, Japan's actions are seen as an obstacle to South Korea's future development and an obstacle to South Korea's policy toward North Korea, posing a threat to the foundation of security cooperation between South Korea and Japan.
Against this backdrop, there has been a heated debate between the populations of the two countries, many of which are related to history. In 2019, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono published an article on compensation for "forced labor" and accused South Korea of failing to face up to the security situation under the pretext of "security."
In the same year, when introducing the order of regional national security cooperation, Japan's "Defense ***" directly lowered South Korea from the original second place to the fourth place, which caused a strong reaction from South Korea.
South Korea adjusted the order of military exchange countries in the "National Defense ***", ranked Japan behind China and Russia, and interrupted the exchange of intelligence with Japan, resulting in Japan not being able to obtain the movement of North Korean missiles.
This has affected not only the cohesion of the United States within the framework of the Asian alliance, but also its interests. However, instead of actively improving relations between South Korea and Japan, Trump at the time gave this task to China.
Because the conflict between South Korea and Japan has not been resolved, in July 2019, Trump said that the United States would intervene to reconcile the relationship between Japan and South Korea if the two sides were interested.
Japan, the United States, and South Korea have one thing in common in terms of security, and that is what they call the "North Korean threat."
Trump has not opposed South Korea's conciliatory policies, and the United States and South Korea do not intend to engage directly with North Korea, bypassing Japan. However, the contradictions between Japan and South Korea are difficult to resolve in the short term, which further complicates the situation in East Asia.
In those two years, Japan-South Korea relations reached their lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1965. However, in view of the complex international situation and geopolitical competition, the strategic differences between the two sides cannot be alleviated and eliminated in the short term, and it has become extremely difficult to rebuild political consensus.
As a result, the prospect of a real change in the relationship between the two countries will be extremely complex.
Although South Korea has surpassed Japan in many fields, Japan still shows the charm of "ginger is still old and spicy". According to 2020 data, among the world's top 1,000 companies in R&D investment, Japanese companies have more than five times the number of seats, especially in the field of source technology and basic science, Japan has 24 Nobel Prize winners before that, while South Korea is still blank.
South Korea is technologically dependent on Japan, but they still want to fight for it, and from a "future-oriented" perspective, neither country wants to completely tear its skin apart. Of course, the collapse of South Korea would be beneficial to Japan, allowing it to occupy more markets and reduce a strong competitor, but this situation is unlikely to arise because international relations are complex and economic changes can affect the whole body.
The two sides also have a common focus, and that is relations with the United States. In 2022, Biden of the United States went to South Korea before visiting Japan, and the South Korean office immediately said: This proves the importance of the South Korea-US alliance.
Yoon's inaugural speech also seemed to emphasize an issue: adjusting diplomatic strategy, broadening the connotation and extension of the South Korea-US alliance, upgrading the South Korea-US alliance to a "comprehensive strategic alliance," and elevating South Korea-US relations to a "record high."
At the same time, North Korea also revealed that it was going to launch missiles in those days, which was also a major problem for South Korea.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's meeting with Biden was Biden's first trip to Japan since taking office, and the discussion between the two sides focused on the issue of China, which has made the situation in East Asia volatile.
This is a way for Japan to seek its own position in front of the United States. South Korea's increased cooperation with the United States is largely motivated by political considerations, and it could also push North Korea closer to China, further worsening relations between the two Koreas.
Japan, on the other hand, wants to reap more economic benefits by strengthening economic cooperation, and is wary of the future, not wanting South Korea to rise rapidly.
After many reports and analysis, Biden's visit has triggered mixed mentalities among all parties. The United States does not seem to care about this, as they can take the opportunity to show their worth without paying any price.
Even if Japan wants South Korea to get into trouble, the United States does not want this "balance" to be easily upset. If the whole world can coexist peacefully, the interests of the United States will be seriously threatened.