According to the latest released data, the renminbi slipped 011 percentage points, from 3 in the previous month71% to 36%。The decline is not significant, but the trend is a cause for concern. So why has the renminbi's share of global payments declined?
As can be seen from the SWIFT report, Russia's use of the offshore yuan has almost zero weight in the October report, yet in previous months, Russia ranked as one of the most using economies of the offshore yuan. This begs the question: does Russia no longer use the yuan as a settlement currency?
Obviously, this is not possible. Since the outbreak of Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Russia has strengthened its foreign relations with China** and used the renminbi instead of the euro and the dollar as transaction currencies in many scenarios. Therefore, we can rule out the possibility that Russia will no longer use the yuan.
So why did Russia "disappear" in the SWIFT report?This may be related to Russia's relations with Europe and the United States. Earlier this year, it was reported that Putin announced that Russia would voluntarily "decouple" from SWIFT from October 1, that is, it would no longer use SWIFT for international ** settlements. Although this news has not yet been confirmed, it is very likely from now on. Putin's decision means that Russia will completely break away from the European and American financial systems, and make international ** payments through other channels, so that the financial sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia will no longer work.
Although the renminbi slipped slightly in its share of global payments in October, it has become increasingly important in the international arena since the beginning of this year. According to the data, the share of RMB global payments in January this year was 191%, the lowest in recent times, while in September it has grown to 371%, almost doubled, and the growth rate is among the best. It can be said that the share of the renminbi in global payments has increased significantly.
At the same time, it can also be seen from the SWIFT report that the economy that uses offshore RMB the most is Hong Kong, accounting for 7926%。In addition to Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the United States, France, Taiwan, Macau, and other places are also regions that use offshore renminbi more. This indicates that the use of the renminbi has further expanded, and the renminbi is gradually being accepted and used around the world.
Although Russia no longer appears in the SWIFT report, this does not mean that the settlement currency relationship between Russia and the yuan has changed. In fact, there has always been an active exchange between Russia and China, and a large part of it is settled in yuan. According to statistics, in the first ten months of this year, the total amount between China and Russia was equivalent to 1379 trillion yuan, a considerable part of which is settled using the CIPS system developed by the Central Bank of China or the payment system of the Central Bank of Russia, which is not within the scope of SWIFT statistics. Therefore, the position of the renminbi in the international ** is still not negligible.
Judging from the current situation, although the share of RMB in global payments has declined, it still maintains a good growth trend. The renminbi will continue to play an important role in its growing international status. At the same time, with the increasing exchanges between China and other countries in the world, the use of RMB in the international market will be further expanded.
However, we should also note that the renminbi still faces some challenges in international payments. First of all, the internationalization process of the renminbi needs to be more stable and sustainable, which not only needs China's first-class policy support and reform measures, but also needs to be recognized and accepted by countries around the world. Second, the competition and reform of the international financial system have also brought certain pressures and challenges to the development of the RMB. Therefore, we need to further improve the international payment system of the RMB, raise the level of internationalization of the RMB, and strengthen the interconnection with other international payment systems.
In summary, although the share of RMB in global payments declined in October, the overall development trend is still good. Russia's "disappearance" does not indicate a change in the status of the yuan in the international world, but because Russia has chosen to "decouple" from SWIFT. The renminbi's position in global payments will continue to improve, but there will also be some challenges and difficulties to face. It is believed that with the continuous development of China's economy and the increase of foreign affairs, the RMB will play a more important role in the field of international payment.