At present, the market's expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates are also constantly catalyzing, and the stage of the pound is also due to the retreat of Treasury yields, is giving up the previous gains, the Bank of Canada is not moving, the Canadian dollar performance is relatively calm, and the short-term loss of obvious direction.
Economic data].
[Product analysis and strategy provision].
EUR USD in Europe and the United States
Economic data released on Wednesday from the eurozone showed that retail sales in the eurozone recorded a monthly rate of 01%, although the data exceeded the previous value, but it was still lower than expected, but the author's previous views were basically unchanged, the current data can not bring any new surprises to the euro, the current dollar is stable, and the euro cannot take advantage of it for the time being.
On the news side, money markets are now pricing in a 150 basis point rate cut by the ECB next year, while the bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points as early as March next year. More analysis suggests that despite a small recovery in October, it is too early for a large number of Eurozone retail sales. The author still believes that although the short-term dollar ** momentum has stopped, the direction may still need to be indicated by Friday's non-agricultural payrolls, and the short-term will still maintain the wait-and-see mentality. Once the dollar index regains bullish momentum, the euro will have little to fight back.
From a technical point of view, it was previously believed that1.08 Tuesday is considered to be maintained, but if it cannot be stabilized later, if it continues to lose, the downward trend can only continue at 107 is looking for support again, which means that the euro's previous efforts are in vain. Wednesday morning has lost 108, it depends on whether there can be a timely repair, but fortunately, it can still provide some corresponding support in the short term, but it can also be seen that the current euro is weak.
Support: 108
Pressure: 11
GBP USD
On Wednesday, UK data showed that the yield on 10-year government bonds fell below 4% for the first time since May. It is indeed not surprising that the pound is under pressure in the short term.
On the news side, the Bank of England said that the UK is currently dealing with the impact of interest rate hikes, but expects risks in the future. Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech also had little to say about monetary policy, and more analysis showed that the current market pricing in interest rate cuts looks "quite aggressive" in an environment where some forward-looking survey data (such as PMI) seem to be bottoming out or turning higher. Even so, against the backdrop of a phased dollar strength, it is difficult for the pound to stand alone.
From a technical point of view, it was previously believed thatThe dollar also seems to be showing some resilience at the moment. 10-day line 126 Monday barely stabilized, if can not support, short-term or further towards the semi-annual line 1254 slides away. After all, Wednesday still failed to stabilize the 10-day line, the short-term move may become embarrassing, the half-year line may provide new support, and there may be a short opportunity for the small cycle pound and the United States. Stabilize the half-year line, and it will not be bad overall. Otherwise, the downside will fall further towards 125.
Support: 1254
Pressure: 126
U.S. and Canadian USD CAD
On Wednesday evening, the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 5% for its third consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. The Bank of Canada removed references to increased inflation risks in its statement, but said it remained concerned about inflation risks. The slowdown in Canada's economy is expected to ease inflationary pressures on a wider range of goods and services, while hoping to see a further sustained slowdown in core inflation. The impact of this interest rate decision on the Canadian dollar is indeed relatively limited.
From a technical point of view, it was previously believed thatThe United States and Canada continue to break out, and the short-term does not rule out the existence of a short-covering signal, and the pressure is on the watch 1355 line, such as stable 1Around 355, perhaps there is a chance for the United States and Canada to turn around. There was a follow-up repair, and the 10-day line was under pressure in stages36 nearby. Fix 136, there is still a chance to attack 60 days**1366, otherwise around 135--1.The 36-seat interval game is more reasonable.
Support: 135
Pressure: 136
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