U.S. economic data has been volatile lately, especially in the fourth quarter, when GDP growth took a sharp turn. And this trend is likely to continue into the first and second quarters of next year, further exacerbating the risk of a recession in the US economy. Earlier, the revised GDP for the third quarter released by the United States showed a growth rate of 49% to 52%, which brings a positive signal to the market. However, the Atlanta Fed then released a worrying **, expecting growth of just 12%。When converted into a month-on-month growth rate, it is actually only about 0About 3%. This data suggests that the US economic growth rate will decline rapidly, and some experts even fear that in the next few quarters, the US GDP growth rate will be negative, which will eventually declare the US economy into a recession. This also validates the view of the previous chief economist of Allianz, who pointed out that the growth rate of the United States soared to 52% is extremely rare and there is a great deal of chance.
However, this downward trend is not unexpected. First, the U.S. fiscal deficit has been rising and is at increasing risk of bankruptcy. At the same time, inflation remains high close to 4%, well above the target set by the Fed. All of this suggests that the U.S. economy is still unable to shake off recession fears. Second, despite previous satisfactory consumption data, we also note that the savings rate in the United States is declining, which means that Americans are running out of savings. As the support for consumption weakens, the momentum of economic growth in the United States will also slow significantly or even stagnate.
The Treasury market has also become an important factor in the uncertainty of the direction of the U.S. economy. Some experts have criticized Yellen's failure to issue large amounts of Treasuries when interest rates are low, resulting in now having to issue Treasury bonds with high interest rates. Yellen argues that the root cause of rising Treasury yields lies in the Fed's interest rate hike policy, and Treasury yields can only be lowered if the Fed cuts interest rates. However, in a recent statement, Powell once again said that he would not consider a rate cut in the near term, and even hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes. This shows that the two important decision-makers of fiscal policy and monetary policy in the United States have not been able to agree on future economic policies. As can be seen from the disagreement between Yellen and Powell, the division within the United States** is seriously affecting the governance ability of the economy, which has also received the attention of rating agencies such as Moody's and Fitch.
The U.S. economy faces a series of challenges and tests, including not only rising fiscal deficits and rising inflation, but also declining domestic consumption and divisions among policymakers. First, the U.S. fiscal deficit has been widening, which has serious implications for economic stability. An increase in the fiscal deficit means that spending exceeds revenues and the deficit needs to be covered by the issuance of government bonds. However, such an approach would lead to an increase in the debt burden, which in turn would increase the fiscal risk. In addition, the rising inflation rate is also causing problems for the economy. An excessively high inflation rate means that the currency depreciates and the purchasing power decreases, which in turn affects the willingness of consumers to spend and the profit position of enterprises.
Second, the U.S. economy is also facing the challenge of declining consumption. Despite recent good consumer data, Americans' savings rates are falling. This means that people are becoming more and more dependent on consumption, and without the support of savings, future consumption growth may not be sustainable, which in turn will affect the growth momentum of the economy as a whole. In addition, friction and global economic instability have also created additional uncertainty in the U.S. consumer market. These factors have made the United States face a more severe external environment, which has had a certain negative impact on economic growth.
Finally, the disagreement among U.S. policymakers has also plagued the economy. Yellen and Powell, as the two major decision-makers in the United States, have always had inconsistent positions on economic policy. Yellen wants to stimulate economic growth by issuing Treasury bonds to lower Treasury yields, while Powell prefers to keep interest rates relatively high. This divergence not only exacerbates market uncertainty, but also highlights the inadequacy of the internal economic governance capacity of the United States.
Looking at the performance of the U.S. economy and the challenges it is currently facing, I don't think the outlook for the U.S. economy is promising. While the Q3 GDP growth figures are encouraging, it is worrying that such forpokward growth will not be sustainable. Rising fiscal deficits, rising inflation, and declining consumption are putting enormous pressure on the U.S. economy. At the same time, divisions among policymakers have further weakened America's ability to govern the economy.
In the face of these challenges, I believe that the United States needs to take a series of measures to stabilize the economy. First of all, fiscal discipline should be strengthened to control the growth of the fiscal deficit. Reducing deficits by cutting spending and raising taxes can reduce the debt burden and improve fiscal sustainability. Second, it is necessary to formulate a reasonable monetary policy to balance the relationship between interest rate levels and inflation control, and avoid the adverse impact of excessive tightening of monetary policy on economic growth. At the same time, policymakers should strengthen coordination and form a consistent position to improve the effectiveness of economic decision-making and the expected stability of the market. Finally, structural reforms should be strengthened to enhance the potential and resilience of economic growth by improving the quality of the labor force and reducing the cost of enterprises.
As a self-editor, I am well aware of the importance and complexity of economic reporting, and it is very important for readers to quickly and accurately grasp the key points of the news, and analyze the causes and consequences in detail. Therefore, I will continue to strive to improve my professional knowledge and writing skills, and make a greater contribution to providing readers with high-quality economic reports and in-depth analysis.