Today, I accidentally saw a post to the effect that through the comparison of the penetration rate of air conditioning in China and Japan, I came to the conclusion that even if the real estate bubble bursts, the ceiling theory of the air conditioning industry is a false proposition.
The author believes that the latitudes of China and Japan are comparable, and Japan has also experienced the process of the bursting of the real estate bubble, so we can roughly outline a framework for the future prospects of China's air conditioning industry according to the current penetration rate of air conditioning in Japan.
So what does Japan's penetration rate look like?According to reliable data, as of 2017, the number of air conditioners per 100 households in Japan reached 282, which is a very high figure. And what is the level of penetration rate in China, according to the data of the National Statistical Yearbook, by 2021, the number of air conditioners per 100 households will be 1177 units, which is still far from Japan, that is to say, if we want to reach the penetration rate of Japan in 2017 in 2021, there are still 583% room for improvement. According to this outline logic, with the sustainable development of the economy and the trend of global warming in the future, the air conditioning industry will have a good room for growth, and the bottleneck theory seems to be a little worrying.
There is really no logical problem with this point of view, but I personally think that the understanding of permeability may be a little biased, and permeability is not a simple data overlay, it is actually a process from fast to slow. In the nineties of the last century, the number of air conditioners per 100 households in China started from less than one and reached 117 in 20217 units, which is equivalent to a 117-fold increase in 30 years, which is also the external logic of Gree, Midea and other air-conditioning companies to become bigger and stronger, and grow rapidly. On the other hand, in Japan, in fact, the number of air conditioners per 100 households in 1992 was close to 150, but it was not until 2022 that it approached the 300 mark, that is, in the same 30 years, the penetration rate doubled, which is equivalent to an annualized growth of more than one point.
Obviously, when the penetration rate reaches a certain level, the penetration rate in the later period is extremely slow, and it is absolutely impossible to support the rapid growth of related enterprises as in the past, so it is not completely unreasonable that the market has always been unwilling to give Gree and Midea (especially Gree, which has a single variety) too high valuation out of concern about bottlenecks.
In this case, should we move from optimism to pessimism and start to look at white goods?After all, after the three major Japanese appliances that swept the world in the 90s reached their peak, they almost all ended up shrinking, will domestic white goods replicate this scene?Personally, I don't think so, but compared to Japan, we have two different objective conditions.
First, we have a vast domestic market, which is incomparable to Japan, relying on the huge volume of the growth of the local market, and actively participating in international competition can be said to be offensive and retreating, and once Japan goes to sea and encounters those local rivals, it is easy to lose ground.
Second, in the past, we relied on the demographic dividend, seized the opportunity of the transfer of labor-intensive industries from developed countries to developing countries, became bigger and stronger, and rapidly rose among the nations of the world. Nowadays, although our demographic dividend has also begun to be reduced, but the general trend of Chinese manufacturing has become a general trend, 80% of the world's air conditioners are made in China, this pattern is basically difficult to be subverted, I am not optimistic that India, Southeast Asia or Africa, these countries with cheap labor can take over the banner of manufacturing. To put it simply, we can replace Japan, but it is difficult for someone to replace us.
Risk Warning: The views mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the subject matter involved is not recommended. ）