At the beginning of 2024, there are two big news about "water release", which is undoubtedly very heavy for the property market.
First, Finance B issued a document entitled "Strengthening Policy Support and Financial Guarantee to Promote the Smooth Circulation of the National Economy", and the intention is actually obviousThis year's fiscal policy is about to exert force.
You must know that the monetary policy of the central bank or the fiscal policy of fiscal B are very important for the development of the economy, and the direction of this year can also be seen from some of the tone and measuresThis year is likely to be a year of great stimulus.
If the monetary policy is relatively loose, it is to inject liquidity into the economy, and if the fiscal policy is forced, it is likely to increase social investment, thereby driving economic development. Judging from the current trends, both of these are worth looking forward to in 2024.
Another piece of news is likely to be more important for the property market.
On the afternoon of January 2, the announcement issued by the central bank showed that in December 2023, the China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China added a net of 350 billion yuan in PSL.
Is this a signal to restart the PSL?Quite possibly!
What is PSL?As one of the monetary policy tools of the central bank, PSL is the abbreviation of collateral supplementary loan, which provides long-term and low-cost financial support to policy banks, and has two major functions: base money and targeted loan support. It creates a multiplier effect similar to that of the base currency. It is estimated that the leverage effect of PSL is about 3 times, and the 350 billion yuan PSL will probably bring about 1 trillion yuan of new loans.
The resumption of PSL, and the new quota is not small, may be a very important signal for the property market. Friends who are familiar with PSL may think of the "monetization of shed reform" back then. Here's how it worked before:
The central bank issues PSL to policy banks, and the policy banks use this as a special loan for shantytown reform issued to the local government, and the local government then issues it to the shantytown reform target in the form of monetary compensationThe first round of flow is over.
* The land transfer money and other income after the demolition will be used to repay the special loan for shantytown renovation from the policy bank, and the policy bank will return the PSL to the central bank. The second round of flow is complete.
The biggest advantage of PSL is that it has a low interest rate and a long time period. This is a very good measure to support the renovation of old buildings and the investment in the construction of basic facilities.
But when the compensation money arrives at the shantytown reform object, they will take the money to buy a house in other places, and because the time is relatively concentrated, it is easy to push the price of housing in a short time. "Monetization of shantytown reform" is also considered by the market to be an important factor driving the last round of housing prices in some cities. Therefore, now Guangzhou has begun to pilot the "room ticket" system, which can avoid this situation to a certain extent.
There is a high probability that the new PSL will not be used for the "monetization" of shed reform. According to the analysis, the PSL will mainly be invested in the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages. Among them, the construction of affordable housing and the transformation of urban villages are actually related to real estate. Even if it does not directly support real estate, it will have a spillover effect and still have a certain supporting effect on real estateAt the very least, it can have a positive impact on market expectations.