The front line is relatively depressed, and it is obvious in Shanghai, where I live, that indicators such as subway data, permanent resident population, office vacancy rate, tax situation, foreign investment situation, and shopping mall consumption have not recovered to pre-epidemic levels. The data is not difficult to find, and you can also take a look at it on the ground. The Internet celebrity economy is still thriving, and if you go to Disney and various Internet celebrity check-in places, you will know that you can't move your feet, but this is not representative.
Ordinary cities are mediocre, but the county economy is good. This may be counterintuitiveAt least it's much better than the pessimistic depictions on the internet.
This year, I accompanied my wife back to a county-level city in the northeast during the Chinese New Year, which is not depressed because of its industry and proximity to second-tier cities, but it is certainly not as good as the third-tier cities, and it can only be said that it is a good area in the county economy.
For China as a whole,The county (township) economy has always been of great significance。It's easy to overlook the silent majority who only scroll through TikTok or even surf the Internet, but in fact, they are the real undertones of China's macroeconomy. Most of these people are concentrated in the post-80s and 70s in counties and rural areas.
Most of my wife's relatives and parents are around 35-50 years old, and most of my parents are born in the 70s, all of whom are still working normally, and they are also the largest group of people in the population, many of whom are workers working in various factories and construction sites, which is in line with my rough framework mentioned above.
Briefly describe their situation.
In fact, I don't spend too much on daily consumption and eating, I eat food at work, and I mainly eat some of my own meals after work (I buy some of them, and some of them are provided by the elderly in rural areas), and I order peanuts for a bottle of local beer, and the day will pass.
Women in the family are mainly responsible for purchasing and purchasing, and in addition to all kinds of low-cost offline physical stores, they can also use Pinduoduo and cheaper WeChat micro-business platforms, so they often shop around and choose carefully. During the New Year's holiday, people in several bathing centers make dumplings, and families can stay in the bath, eat and entertainment for a whole day, with an average consumption of 100-200 per capita. In the context of economic deflation, prices of all kinds are relatively low, and for most county consumers, this may be the time when prices are the most friendly.
themThere are no financial assets, there is a mortgage supply, but the supply at this age is almost the same, mainly to save for the next generation to provide a down payment and pension and disease prevention money.
During the process, I also heard an elder from the shipyard talk about the chicken feathers of foreign capital running away a few years ago, and many people were waiting at home for work. In the past two years, state-owned assets have completed the acquisition and reorganization, and there are too many orders to complete. After finishing speaking, the honest uncle who has been a worker all his life took a sip of wine and said something that surprised me a little but admired it: ".It's all cycles. "As for the macro data and stories of how China's shipbuilding industry overtook in recent years, it is not difficult to find on the Internet.
But an obvious feeling is that the work is more tiring than before, the management is stricter, the working hours are casual 10 hours + a day, the day shift and the night shift need to be worked regularly, and the weekly rest is even non-stop. Even so, in order to triple or double the overtime pay for the New Year's holiday, many workers still compete for overtime, and they may not be eligible for this hard-won "special treatment".
In general, theyExtremely frugal consumption habits, strong ability to save money and hard-working motivation, which many young people cannot imagine. And this is the most realistic family economy and work status of the largest group of people in our country at present. They're really trying their best to live.
As long as their economic life is maintained, their basic situation will be as stable as an old dog, and there will be no possibility of unrest at all. Not to mention that many young men in rural areas in the county are also absorbed into various manufacturing industries, and many of them are quite durable, and many of the online unemployed groups are mainly white-collar young people with "squeamish" points. Words may not sound good: what can they do with their shouting? Adding a pair of chopsticks to the house... …
I'm not here to preach that things are going well, or to praise the older generation and dismiss the younger generation, or to say that youth unemployment is high. I just think,Many people underestimate China's determination to maintain the basic income of the above-mentioned population, overestimate the difficulty of maintaining the basic income of the above-mentioned population in China, and underestimate the tolerance of the above-mentioned population in the face of China's economic difficulties. If you feel that you can't live a life, they can eat oil cakes, steamed buns, pickles, eggs, cheap liquor and beer, and even clear water to resist the past.
6000 or less than 2000 points? There is no effect on them. Urban investment and local bonds? (Not to mention whether domestic debt is a debt or not.) There is no correlation with their income. The collapse and debt crisis under the grand narrative are just stories in a parallel world for them.
Maintaining the salary of a group of low social security people with a monthly income of 6,000-10,000, or a few months later, is really not as difficult as many people imagine. And when the most difficult time passes, a new cycle will begin. You can "mourn how difficult it is", but sometimes that's just the way it is.
You need to figure out where you stand in the big picture and what your competitors are. At present, when new production capacity is in the ascendant and traditional production capacity still accounts for a very heavy proportion, they are more tolerant and willing to work than the younger generation. They may be old and tired, but they may not be really "cold" or even alive.
The manufacturing industry is the most able area to absorb employment, and in the context of overcapacity, the cold wind of economic depression is naturally blowing towards the younger generation. At present, the confidence of the economy is seriously lacking, mainly because many people on the Internet complain under various forums and comments, and the general age group of netizens is in the range of 18-35. This is in line with the current high youth unemployment rate, but it does not necessarily tell the whole story.
Of course, our country is too big, and there are different temperatures in different places, and what I am talking about is just a fragment, just for your reference.
Compared with several crises in the last century and at the beginning of the century, the biggest difference between China and the crisis in this crisis is that it has accumulated a relatively rich foundation through decades of development, and has stronger fault tolerance and stronger leverage ability: on the one hand, short-term and local mistakes are acceptable, on the other hand, a correct decision may be solidified into a long-term moat through scale and network effects, shipbuilding, photovoltaics, and new energy, and gradually forming a "win" is China's best way of playing. It is also because of this that it is inevitable that he will collide head-on with the United States, which is still in the leading position and has the same deep roots.
As ordinary people, we should pay more attention to the real micro-environment that we can see and come into contact with: cities, classes, industries, enterprises, jobs, etc., in such a large country, the human body in different micro-environments is very different. Knowing the so-called macro environment can help you plan ahead and avoid becoming cannon fodder in conflict, but it also runs the risk of being fooled and lame. One of the biggest problems is:In the face of the complex negative information and emotions on the Internet, they inexplicably form learned helplessness and lose the motivation, judgment and execution to move forward.
Of course, it's okay to spit out and vent your emotions, but you still have to do things after all
For this not-so-good moment, time is the best friend.