The global economy may face a period of weaker growth than the global financial crisis in 2008, the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s of the last century, and the Internet bubble in the early 2000s.
The World Bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on TuesdayGlobal economic growth is expected to slow for the third consecutive year in 2024, from 26% to 24%；By 2025, global economic growth will rise slightly to 27%。
The World Bank expects the global economy to grow by 2 percent between 2020 and 20242%，This is the weakest five-year growth rate since the early 1990sThe last time it was below this value was 21%。This means that the global economy will be weaker than the global financial crisis of 2008, the Asian financial crisis of the late 90s, and the dot-com bubble of early 2000.
While the global economy has shown resilience in the face of recession risks in 2023, heightened geopolitical tensions will pose new near-term challenges, causing most economies to grow less quickly in 2024 and 2025 than they have in the past decade, the group said.
Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist and director of the World Bank's Outlook Group, said, "There are serious conflicts in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East. theseThe escalation of the conflict could have a significant impact on energy**, which in turn could affect inflation and economic growth.
Indermit Gill, the World Bank's chief economist and senior vice president, warned that without a "major course shift", the 20s would be seen as a "decade of wasted opportunities".
Regionally, growth slows will be most pronounced in North America, Europe and Central Asia, and Asia-Pacific, with a slight improvement expected in Latin America and the Caribbean, and a more pronounced recovery in the Middle East and Africa, according to World Bank expectations.
Nonetheless, developing economies will be hit the hardest in the medium term, as the global downturn and tight financial conditions weigh heavily on economic growth.
"Global growth will continue to weaken in the near term, leaving many developing countries, especially the poorest, in a difficult position: high debt levels and limited access to food for nearly a third of the population," Gill said. ”
The World Bank currently expects developing economies to grow by just 3.0% by 20249%, which is more than 1 percentage point below the average of the previous decade. By the end of the year, about a quarter of people in developing countries and about 40 percent of people in low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the pandemic in 2019, the group said.
According to the World Bank, the world has failed to meet its goal of making the 2020s a "transformative decade" to tackle extreme poverty, major infectious diseases, and climate change. However, it added that if countries** act quickly to increase investment and strengthen fiscal policy frameworks, there is an opportunity to turn the tide.
"The investment spree has the potential to change the growth prospects of developing economies, helping them accelerate their energy transition and achieve their development goals," Coase said in the report. ”
The report was released ahead of the World Economic Forum. The forum, which will take place next week, will bring together international business and political leaders to discuss global political, economic and social issues.
To trigger this boom, developing economies need to implement a comprehensive policy package to improve fiscal and monetary frameworks, expand cross-border** and financial flows, improve the investment climate, and improve the quality of institutions," he said. Doing so again would help mitigate the projected slowdown in potential growth for the remainder of the decade. ”