The European Union is pursuing a new strategy to challenge China's growing influence. Central Asia is becoming a magnet for global powers. With its geographical proximity and sheer scale, China is strengthening its influence in the region through the promise of large-scale projects. The EU, on the other hand, aims to strengthen its presence and weaken China's influence through a new strategy.
China's strategy towards Central Asia is characterized by huge long-term investments based on hard-to-repay loans (so-called debt-trap diplomacy). The fate of many of the projects that China has promised to complete is uncertain.
Debt-trap diplomacy has led to nearly half of the sovereign debt owed to China in countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and has triggered more than 150** activities related to this burden. Instead, the EU provides loans aimed at accelerating economic transformation, adapting to a free-market economy, and promoting human rights. This "Western" agenda has also been criticized.
In 2007, the EU formalized its approach through its first Central Asia strategy document. Despite this initiative, the United States has prioritized Afghanistan in its regional policy, leading the EU to consider the region primarily from a security point of view and focus on the country's development.
This creates an opportunity for China to expand its influence. Since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013, China has invested heavily in Central Asian countries, consolidating its position as a major economic player in the region. Globally, Belt and Road projects total $1 trillion.
While the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has encountered problems, especially in Europe, China continues to work on it. Last year, China signed the Xi'an Declaration at the China-Central Asia Summit, announcing long-term projects in Central Asia and signing agreements worth $4 billion. China's share with countries in the region increased from $1.5 billion in 2001 to $70 billion in 2022.
The European Union has responded. Both the 2019 update of the EU Strategy Document and the EU Infrastructure Initiative's Global Gateway discuss the growing impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the region.