This newspaper (chinatimesnet.CN) reporters Shuai Kecong and Chen Feng report from Beijing.
On January 30, the A** field was sharply ** again, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 183% to 2830At 53 points, the GEM index fell below the 1,600-point mark for the first time in nearly four and a half years. More than 5,000 ** stocks in the whole market closed down, and more than 80 ** fell to the limit. Wind data shows that the total market value of A-shares evaporated by more than 17 trillion yuan.
RRR cuts, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has spoken out, and the market value management effectiveness of central enterprises will be included in the assessment, etc., and the Shanghai Composite Index has successfully regained the 2,900-point mark last week. However, why did A-shares dive again?
The recent series of policies is strong enough, but the market's best will not be achieved overnight. A private equity person in Beijing said in an interview with a reporter from the China Times. It believes that the A** market has been in a bear market for too long, and the current fundamental expectations are actually still worried, so the market ** is inevitable.
Yu Fenghui, an expert consultant of the Hong Kong Top 100 Research Center, expects that in the short term, the A** field will continue to be sorted out until the fundamentals improve or market expectations turn optimistic, so that they can really get out of the downturn.
The GEM index fell below 1600 points
On January 30, the three major A-share indexes fell after opening low, and accelerated their diving at the end of the session. As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 183% at 283053 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 24% at 837598 points; The GEM index fell 247% at 158377 points. Among them, the GEM index fell below the 1,600-point mark for the first time since August 2019.
In addition, the BSE 50 index closed down 174%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 379%, the CSI 300 index fell 178%。
The full-day turnover of A-shares was 671.6 billion yuan, a decrease of about 143.9 billion yuan from the previous day, and the net outflow of main funds exceeded 29 billion yuan. Northbound funds saw a net inflow of 17 throughout the day4.2 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 250.2 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 7600 million yuan.
On the disk, 31 Shenwan first-class industry sectors fell across the board, and electronics, media, and real estate sectors fell first, respectively51%；The coal, banking, and utilities sectors were the last to decline, respectively06%。
At the level, there are as many as 5,007 in the whole market, only 313, 25 in the up, and 87 in the down.
Wind data shows that as of January 30**, the total market value of more than 5,300 A-share listed companies was about 813 trillion yuan, a decrease of more than 1 from the previous day7 trillion yuan.
Hong Kong stocks also performed poorly, with the Hang Seng Index** falling 232% at 1570345 points, once again lost the 16,000 point mark; The Hang Seng Tech Index plunged 327% at 309887 points.
Why A-shares fell sharply again
Last week, many departments successively announced a series of blockbuster favorable policies: the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio to release trillions of yuan of liquidity; The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) first mentioned "building an investor-oriented capital market", and pointed out in stern terms that fraudulent issuers should be "bankrupt and imprisoned"; The effectiveness of the market value management of central enterprises will be included in the assessment. The Shanghai Composite Index once continued to **, standing above the 2,900-point mark.
However, why did it stop abruptly? What is the reason behind the slump again?
From the perspective of external market performance, the major indices in Europe and the United States were generally ** overnight, and the Dow and S&P 500 indexes continued to hit record highs. During the 30-day trading session of A-shares, there were no significant fluctuations in European and American stock indexes**, with the Nikkei 225 Index and Australia's S&P 200 Index closing slightly higher, and the South Korean Composite Index falling slightly. Therefore, the reason for the sharp decline in A-shares may be mainly internal.
Yu Fenghui told the "China Times" reporter that the sharp fall in the A** field is the result of the interaction of a variety of factors, even in the context of favorable policies, the market may still be the best. There may be reasons for this, such as economic fundamentals, the need for internal market adjustments, liquidity, investor sentiment and expectations, and so on.
If market participants are pessimistic about the future trend, it will be difficult to quickly reverse market sentiment even if the policy is favorable, especially in the atmosphere of panic selling, investors are more inclined to operate conservatively and have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Yu Fenghui analyzed.
The above-mentioned private equity people believe that the recent policy is good enough, but the market will not be achieved overnight. As A-shares have been weak for a long time, it will take time for market confidence to fully recover.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, also told the China Times that the recent policy support for the strength of the capital market has been increasing, and under the joint efforts of policies, investors' confidence is expected to gradually recover. However, due to the fact that the A** field has appeared for three consecutive years, the trend of the market has been a process of bottoming downward, so it is still inevitable that there will be repeated ** at the bottom, and the long-short divergence will increase.
The market is both a bottoming out and a bottom**, a process of repeated bottoming, and investors are advised to have confidence and patience. From the perspective of stabilizing economic growth, the recent efforts to support economic recovery are increasing, including the current relatively large risk area of the property market, and the policy side is also constantly releasing positive signals. Yang Delong thinks.
Regain confidence in the midst of volatility
Although short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, institutional analysts generally believe that the current A** market is already at the bottom of valuation, the overall market opportunities outweigh the risks, and investors do not need to be overly pessimistic.
Yang Delong pointed out that the current A-share is in the position of the historical bottom area, which can be seen from some bottom characteristics, such as the new ** issuance is close to the freezing point, and even some new ** issuance zero subscription phenomenon, which has not appeared before, indicating that the market sentiment has reached the freezing point. Judging from the price-earnings ratio of the CSI 300, it has fallen to ten times, and many bottoms have appeared around ten times in history.
CICC research report said that recently, many departments have actively spoken out and introduced policies to stabilize the economy, stabilize the market, and stabilize confidence, investor sentiment has improved, combined with the current overall low level of some institutional investors with room to increase positions, since the fourth quarter, the net inflow of broad-based ETF funds has accelerated, the reduction of industrial capital and the increase in repurchases, and the margin of positive signals on the policy and capital side has increased, and it is expected that the short-term market will have a certain repair momentum, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the medium-term performance.
Cai Fangyuan, an analyst at China Galaxy, said in the latest research report that the domestic economy will stabilize and recover as the effect of macro policies continues to appear, domestic consumption gradually recovers, and the profit growth of industrial enterprises accelerates significantly. Overseas, the Fed is about to enter the channel of interest rate cuts, and it is expected to usher in the first rate cut in the second half of 2024. In the context of the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, it will be good for the world, and have an impact on the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index, thereby reducing the pressure on the RMB, and the exchange rate factors that constrain the ** have been alleviated. The resonance of internal and external positive factors has formed a support for A-shares.
Cai Fangyuan believes that after the ups and downs of 2023, the internal and external negative factors have basically been digested, considering that the current A-shares are at the bottom of the valuation area, 2024 is expected to usher in the recovery of confidence and attract capital inflows under the favorable conditions at home and abroad, and A-shares are expected to usher in the first upward repair in 2024.
Editor-in-charge: Ma Xiaochao Editor-in-chief: Xia Shencha.