Putin personally drew a "38th line" for Ukraine, is this an acceptable solution for Zelensky?
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict is about to enter its third year, Putin's position on issues such as the truce has also changed. Now, it seems, Russia is no longer pursuing a full-fledged "demilitarization" of Ukraine, preferring instead to create a demilitarized zone by creating a "38th parallel" similar to the one between North and South Korea within Ukraine.
In Putin's talks with his campaign and the core, he said that after the war is over, Russia needs to establish a large demilitarized zone in Ukraine. This area needs to be kept far enough away from the "demilitarization line" and "Russian territory" to prevent Ukraine from using long-range** attacks on Russian cities.
Putin's idea of a demilitarized zone is reminiscent of the "38th parallel" on the Korean Peninsula. After the signing of the Panmunjom Armistice Agreement in 1953, North and South Korea established a demilitarized zone about 4 kilometers wide and 248 kilometers long on both sides of the 38th parallel, prohibiting any military action.
Although there have been some clashes in the demilitarized zone in the decades that followed, its buffering effect did reduce the risk of large-scale conflict caused by border frictions.
However, the demilitarized zone proposed by Russia would be much larger than the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea.
Specifically, the demilitarized line proposed by Russia is intended to keep Ukrainian forces away from the Russian border, which means that the demilitarized zone will not include post-war Russian-controlled areas, but will be located entirely on post-war Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Even Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, would be located within the demilitarized zone, based on the combat radius of Western-supplied missiles such as Storm Shadow or Ukraine's home-made suicide drones.
Russia, of course, understands that the extent of the demilitarized zone cannot be determined on the basis of the range of drones or long-range missiles that are hundreds of kilometers at every turn. Therefore, Putin made a point of emphasizing that the long-range ** he is referring to is mainly the long-range ** used by Ukraine to shell Russian cities, and more bluntly, the long-range artillery in the hands of the Ukrainian army.
The longest-range artillery currently available to the Ukrainian army is the "Hippocampus" supplied by the United States and the United Kingdom, but the West does not equip Ukraine with ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 300 km, only a version with a range of 165 km.
Considering that the "Russian cities" mentioned by Putin actually cover all the cities in the four eastern regions of Ukraine, the demilitarized zone envisaged by Russia should extend to a vast area of about 160 kilometers within the borders of the four eastern regions of Ukraine and neighboring regions.
This means that Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv in the north and parts of Kyiv in the north, Dniproporovsk in the east, Mykolaiv and Odessa in the south will be included in this demilitarized zone.
If such a demilitarized zone is established, Ukraine will lose the ability to launch a surprise offensive to regain lost territory, as well as the ability to effectively resist the next Russian military operation that may be launched at any time.
At the current stage, it is unlikely that Ukraine will accept this proposal from Russia. Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's office, has made it clear that he opposes Putin's claims and calls on the international community to continue to provide military support to Ukraine.
Russia may also be aware that the conditions for the construction of such a demilitarized zone are not yet ripe, but this proposal must be made as soon as possible.
Ukraine has frequently carried out cross-border military activity along its northern border with Russia, border cities such as Belgorod have been regularly attacked by the Ukrainian side, and there have even been reports that Russian volunteer units in the Ukrainian army have entered Russian territory in this way. Recently, Ukraine also successfully used Patriot missiles to shoot down an Il-76 transport aircraft flying in Russian airspace.
Against this background, the Russian public is increasingly concerned about whether it can be guaranteed. Putin urgently needs to show the people that he is determined to solve the problem and respond.
At the same time, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict nears its third year, Russia realizes that it is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve its initial goal of full demilitarization of Ukraine, with continued support from the West. However, in order not to get caught up in the conflict with Ukraine in the future, Russia must achieve some degree of demilitarization.
Under such circumstances, the seizure of the four eastern regions of Ukraine and the establishment of a demilitarized zone around them as a buffer zone became a viable strategy. This idea was put forward in advance in order to test whether the various factions in the country could accept it.
In addition, the failure of Ukraine's large-scale counterattack and the changes in the situation in the Middle East have caused a series of chain reactions, with the growing number of voices advocating peace in the West, and the weakening of military assistance to Ukraine by the United States and Europe. Russia's proposal for a demilitarized zone at this time may be an attempt to probe the position of Ukraine and the West in order to develop a follow-up action plan.
In short, Russia, while stabilizing the hearts and minds of the people at home, has proposed new terms for a truce to Ukraine and Western countries. As for whether the two sides will cease the war and demarcate the demilitarized zone as demanded by Russia, it remains to be seen how the war will develop in the future.
After all, what you don't get on the battlefield, you can't get at the negotiating table. If Russia wants Ukraine to sign the agreement and truly achieve this goal, it will need to occupy at least four eastern regions of Ukraine and advance to the envisaged demilitarized zone, so that Ukraine will completely lose the will to resist.