Aion's IPO plan, which has not been moved for a long time, has finally made new progress in 2024.
A number of ** broke the news that GAC Group plans to spin off its new energy vehicle sub-brand GAC Aion to be listed in Hong Kong, and CICC and Huatai ** are responsible for related matters, and plan to raise $1 billion.
GAC has not yet responded to this news. However, from the perspective of time, there is indeed not much time left for Aion to impact the capital market.
It was once valued at 100 billion yuan, and planned to hit the first share of new energy vehicles on the Science and Technology Innovation Board
Founded in 2017, Aion is one of the successful cases of traditional car companies incubating new energy sub-brands, and has been at the top of the new energy vehicle delivery list in the past few years, following BYD. At the same time, Aion is also regarded by GAC Group as "the hope of the whole village".
As one of the major state-owned automobile groups, GAC Group sells more than 2 million vehicles every year, but its market value is less than 200 billion yuan, far less than other enterprises with lower profits than GAC Group. Therefore, from the day of Aion's independence, GAC has packaged its core assets into Aion to promote Aion's listing. Therefore, it can be said that Aion's listing is not only for itself, but also for the entire GAC.
In November 2022, Aion completed a record 182The largest single private placement financing of 9.4 billion yuan in the domestic new energy vehicle industry has successfully pushed the valuation to the level of 100 billion yuan, becoming the most highly valued enterprise of unlisted new energy vehicle companies in China. At that time, the voice of Aion sprinting to "the first share of new energy vehicles on the science and technology innovation board" had already risen one after another.
More employees did not hesitate to borrow from the bank, and the general manager directly mortgaged the real estate to subscribe for shares, etc., which brought the "wealth-making" sentiment to the extreme, as if Aion's IPO listing was already on the bow and had to be sent.
Switching from the Science and Technology Innovation Board to H-shares, forced by the situation?
However, after entering 2023, although Aion's sales are still rising, the IPO plan seems to have come to an end. At last year's Shanghai Auto Show, Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, said that GAC Aion strives to achieve an IPO in 2023. By July, Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aion, revealed that Aion's IPO will be in 2024 at the earliest. At the September earnings meeting, the timing became even more ambiguous, with the official statement only "depending on the progress of the review and the state of the capital market".
Now the latest news has become "listing in Hong Kong". To a certain extent, this also shows that Aion's IPO is not all smooth sailing.
Before Aion, WM Motor had also sprinted to the Science and Technology Innovation Board, but it also failed to do so. The earlier batch of new car-making forces Wei Xiaoli all chose to be listed overseas; Leap is also a landing in Hong Kong stocks; ZEEKR has gone to the United States for IPO. The review standards of the Science and Technology Innovation Board in terms of innovation and profitability may be the biggest problem faced by new energy vehicle companies, and even Aion, which is "well-established", cannot pass.
Time has dragged on again and again, and the gold content of Aion's IPO has also changed with the changes in the market situation.
In 2023, the cumulative annual sales of Ai'an will reach 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 77%. However, in the second half of 2023, Aion's sales have declined significantly. As the domestic online car-hailing market is gradually approaching saturation, the B-end market that Aion relies on is experiencing bottlenecks. Haobo, a sub-brand that carries Aion's hope to enter the high-end market, failed to fill the position in time. The data shows that the sales volume of Haobo GT, which is positioned at more than 200,000 yuan, has declined month by month after its listing, and can only maintain a monthly average of about 1,000 units. The sales volume of Haobo HT in the first month of its launch was only 1,910 units. Haobo needs more time to prove itself.
On the other hand, the problem of profitability is still Aion's heart problem. Judging from the financial statements published by GAC Aion, its losses increased year by year from 2019 to May 31, 2022, with a cumulative net loss of more than 3.7 billion yuan and total liabilities of 98500 million yuan. After entering 2023, the intensification of market competition and the first war, and the investment of new brands will only make Aion's financial pressure greater.
In other words, the longer it drags on, the more detrimental it will be to Aion's valuation and development. At this time, it is more or less compelled to choose Hong Kong stocks with relatively more relaxed audits.
Hong Kong stocks are not necessarily the "paradise" of new energy car stocks
Although the review standards of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are relatively more relaxed, new energy vehicle companies may not be able to get much benefit in Hong Kong stocks. In fact, Hong Kong stocks have not been very "cold" to the concept of "new energy car manufacturing".
In 2021, Xpeng Motors and Li Auto have landed on the Hong Kong stock market, and they both ended in breakdowns on the first day of trading. In the following more than a year, the two ** were almost "falling endlessly", and the share price of Xpeng Motors fell by 70% from the original issue price at its lowest. Seeing that the situation was not good, NIO simply gave up directly landing on the Hong Kong stock market to issue new shares for financing, and instead listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by way of introduction. In 2022, Leapmotor will land on the Hong Kong stock market, falling by nearly 40% in the first half of the day, and the market value of more than 20 billion yuan will come to naught.
In the past 2023, the stock prices of various new energy vehicle companies have more than **, but this is already a relatively good performance in recent years. In the first week of 2024, the stock price of NIO's Hong Kong stock has accumulated by 17%, Ideal has fallen by more than 8%, and the cumulative decline of Xpeng and Leap is also in double digits.
*The impact of the overall trend is one thing. On the other hand, Hong Kong stock investors have always been very strict about the large-scale industrial economy of automobiles, and even the trend of traditional car companies in Hong Kong has been unstable for many years. They don't understand the story of "new cars", and their tolerance for car companies' losses is not as high as that of U.S. stock investors.
If Aion chooses to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2024, it is likely that it will also be listed in the same bloody manner as the previous Leap.
Write at the end:
Although from the perspective of the general environment, now is not the best time for Aion to go public. The choice of listing on Hong Kong stocks is somewhat due to factors forced by the situation. But for Aion, as long as its own strength is strong enough, it can still make some gains in the capital market.
At present, Aion has set a sales target of 800,000 units in 2024, which is the bottom line to support Aion's valuation. Therefore, Aion's next sales trend will directly affect the confidence of the capital market. Whether the sales volume of the Haobo brand can go up is an important key to whether the sales target of 800,000 vehicles can be achieved. Aion needs to increase its investment in Haobo to leverage the market. At the same time, the model products under the main brand still need to make efforts in the C-end market to cope with the possible contraction of the online car-hailing market.
For Aion, the key to the success or failure of the IPO may be in 2024. (Wen Youshi Auto Old Cannon).
Note: The picture comes from the Internet, the rights belong to the original author, thank you too! This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the position of Youshi Auto.