Reporter Dang Peng reports from Chengdu.
The rural consumer market is still dominated by liquor of about 100 yuan, and the sales are average, slightly better than last year. Mr. Lin, who is engaged in the wholesale and retail of liquor in Yanliang District, Xi'an City, lamented that although the manufacturer has a lot of first-class activities, the inventory pressure is still very great.
During the Spring Festival this year, major wine companies are doing their best for a "good start" in the new year. In addition to the concentrated appearance of the Spring Festival Gala, in several Chinese New Year films, there are also product placement advertisements of liquor brands. In addition, many wine companies have launched challenges and e-commerce live broadcasts through platforms such as Douyin for brand promotion.
During the Spring Festival, market recovery and differentiation coexisted, and the best belts, fragrances, and brands continued to differentiate, and cost performance was still the keyword, and the mass market was better in terms of shipments. Cai Xuefei, an expert in the liquor industry, believes that the market investment of the head liquor and regional leading liquor companies has increased significantly, and the market squeeze growth trend is obvious.
In addition, the reporter of "China Business Daily" noticed that as Xifeng Liquor and Jinshiyuan entered the 10 billion camp, Langjiu, Xijiu and Gujinggong stood firm at 20 billion steps, and the concentration of head liquor companies is getting higher and higher. "In 2024, the key words of liquor are continuous differentiation, high inventory, inversion, cross-border marketing and category innovation, the development of traditional liquor production areas, fruit wine, whiskey, pre-blended liquor and other small liquor to usher in new opportunities, and new consumption, new technologies and new platforms such as winery experience economy, e-commerce live broadcast, and community marketing may reshape the development trend of the industry and give birth to new brand opportunities. Cai Xuefei judged.
Manufacturers under inventory pressure
* It's beautiful. Before the Spring Festival, Mr. Liu, a liquor distributor in Guangzhou, posted a liquor ** advertisement on WeChat Moments. According to the **catalog he provided to reporters, the many famous wines he sells are cheaper than those online, ranging from dozens of yuan to hundreds of yuan. "The main thing is to reduce inventory, and the pressure is too much. Mr. Liu said frankly.
In the interview, many distributors mentioned that some wine companies have different degrees of pressure on distributors in order to "get off to a good start". "The inventory digestion in 2023 itself is not ideal, and now the old goods are not sold out, and the new ones are pressed again. Mr. Liu said.
On this issue, liquor companies are reluctant to comment. "At present, the head of Maowulu Jianfen, the regional leading Yanghe, Gujing, Shede, Shuijingfang and other famous liquor growth rate is high, the backlog of inventory problems has also been greatly alleviated, the market is showing a steady growth trend, but the industry's high inventory still exists, especially the regional low-end liquor enterprises, are still facing a severe sales situation. Cai Xuefei said.
According to statistics, at the end of the third quarter of last year, the total inventory of 20 listed liquor companies was 1,3635.4 billion yuan, of which there are many wine companies with inventories of more than 10 billion yuan. However, in 2020, the total inventory of listed liquor companies was 98.5 billion yuan. Behind the high inventory, there is a situation of upside down and pressing goods to dealers.
In fact, this situation is triggering a fragmentation of dealers. A dealer surnamed Yuan interviewed by this reporter had to transfer the distribution rights of a certain famous liquor at the end of last year, and was also burdened with debts of several millions. "Insufficient sales, more and more pressure on goods, can only rely on high-interest loans to support, and finally cause a vicious circle. Mr. Yuan said that the task of pressing liquor is heavy, and it is impossible to enjoy various rebate policies of the manufacturer if it is not completed.
However, some dealers said that the lack of dynamic sales lies in whether the first-class products have brand influence and dynamic sales on the one hand, and on the other hand, they rely on their own circle marketing. A Xifeng liquor merchant has been in Xifeng for 6 years, and the sales of 140 yuan bottles have a very consumer market in rural Shaanxi, and at the same time increase the sinking efforts, so it has also developed benignly in recent years.
In this regard, Xiao Zhuqing, an expert in the liquor industry, believes that in view of the current situation of insufficient purchasing power in the market and high social inventory, most liquor listed companies have been cautious in pressing goods to the channel.
In the destocking stage, this round of inventory cycle shows the characteristics of product structure settlement and volume-price game. Guotai Junan Research believes that this round of destocking may take a long time, but the adjustment is slow, showing a moderate destocking of "long time and small amplitude", and the logic of share concentration is more extreme.
According to the Ping An ** research report, manufacturers are cautiously optimistic about payment collection and dynamic sales; Dealers generally report that there is pressure on funds, but they will still complete the payment collection of the head wine companies; The feedback before the holiday was negative, indicating that the actual sales and profit margin had declined to a greater extent than in previous years, but the holiday season improved.
Ping An believes that the main reason is that the resources are monopolized by powerful businessmen, and at the same time, some wine companies carry out direct sales, and the share of small and medium-sized tobacco hotels is further squeezed; The tens of billions of subsidies on platforms such as JD.com and Pinduoduo have lowered the actual price of famous wines, and consumers are attracted by low-priced products online, resulting in the diversion of terminal sales.
In this regard, some wine companies have taken action and began to focus on improving the profits of distributors. Wuliangye Chairman Zeng Congqin has said that in the new year, "we must make every effort to promote the improvement of channel profits and not let dealers suffer losses", on the one hand, control the volume, on the other hand, increase marketing incentives, and dealers will have a box of rebates for every box of goods.
In addition, a number of wine companies, including Jiugui Liquor, Jinsha Liquor, and Jinshiyuan, have also proposed to "stabilize the first" and make the channel development more reasonable.
As Li Zhenjiang, deputy general manager of Hejun Consulting Group and general manager of Hejun Beverage Division, previously said, the cooperation between manufacturers needs to be maintained in an innovative way. The cooperative relationship between manufacturers should be placed on a more complete profit distribution mechanism, which is based on the best profit distribution, through the way of product equity and sales equity, and the dealers to establish a deeper cooperative relationship, and finally form a transformation from a community of interests to a community of destiny.
The liquor camp accelerated to the head
In fact, the liquor market pattern has changed, the industry has entered the stock market of 'volume and price rise' from the incremental market of 'volume and price rise', the oligopoly trend is obvious, relying on the brand, production area and category of the head liquor and regional strong liquor to accelerate the development, a large number of regional small and medium-sized liquor enterprises are rapidly marginalized, the industry concentration has been further improved, and the Matthew effect is obvious. Cai Xuefei believes that behind the upgrading of social consumption structure and the development of quality consumption trends is aging, the development of the Internet, and the rational consumption of alcohol is more demanding, healthy and social, and at the same time, alcohol consumption has overcapacity, inverted and other situations, which are directly related to the slowdown in social and economic growth and the weakening of social consumption expectations.
At present, the differentiation trend of the liquor industry is becoming more and more obvious. There are a number of liquor companies in the market that have crossed the 10 billion mark, including the listed "Mao, Wu, Yang, Fen, Lu, Gu", etc., as well as the unlisted Xijiu, Langjiu, Jiannanchun and Jinpai.
The reporter noticed that at the end of last year, the lineup of tens of billions of wine companies ushered in "newcomers". Among them, the operating data released by Jinshiyuan shows that its total revenue last year was 100500 million yuan; Zhang Zheng, chairman of Xifeng Group, announced that the sales revenue of Xifeng Group (including liquor business) exceeded 10 billion yuan. Shunxin Agriculture, which is in the 10 billion camp, previously announced that its revenue would be between 10 billion yuan and 11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 581% to 1437%。
In the 20 billion yuan camp, Gujin Gongjiu previously announced that it would officially cross 20 billion yuan; Langjiu and Xijiu will continue to grow in 2023; Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao are expected to enter the 30 billion yuan camp.
Cai Xuefei believes that the arrival of the era of 10 billion yuan in China's wine industry is the inevitable result of the intensive development of the industry after the large-scale expansion of wine enterprises. With the improvement of consumer brand and quality awareness, with the help of capital, the scale of 10 billion is the embodiment of the brand value of the enterprise, at present, the scale of 10 billion has become the threshold for wine companies to participate in the national market competition, for many wine companies that are undergoing the nationalization of the market and the expansion of high-end products, the scale of 10 billion is the embodiment of brand value and scale efficiency in the era of famous wine, and it is also the ticket for enterprises to participate in the next round of famous wine competition in the era of stock.
At present, many dealers have high inventories, high rent pressure, the game between dealers and wine companies is still sharp, the market in 2024 is still hovering at the bottom, the high growth pressure of the head enterprises does not match the market carrying capacity, and the market is entangled between squeezing and breaking through. Zhang Haoran, secretary general of the Shiwenjia Liquor Research Institute, believes that the expansion trend of the 10 billion club continues, showing that the strong are stronger, squeezing the characteristics of regional famous liquor and small and medium-sized liquor enterprises, and the high-end and consumer mind occupation will still be fierce, and the consumer relevance will be more obvious.