The following article ** Yu Macro Fans Zhe, written by Lu Zhe.
Lu Zhe s1220523120001
Contact: Zhan Shuo, Li Changmeng
Key takeaways
Pay attention to the impact of the post-migration of the Spring Festival on the resumption of production and work:
There is a significant backward phenomenon in this year's Spring Festival. Different from the Spring Festival in previous years, this year's statutory holiday starts from the beginning of the first month, so the Spring Festival migration is significantly backward, and the intensity of migration after the holiday is significantly higher than before the holiday. In the week before the holiday, the migration index was 29%；However, from the first to the sixth day of the new year, the migration index is 7 times higher than that in 20232%。
Pay attention to whether the post-migration of the Spring Festival will affect the resumption of work. The backward timeline of population outflow may pull the Changchun transportation time, which will have a certain impact on the resumption of production and work after the holiday. The statutory working day starts from the ninth day of the new year, when the changes in the two indicators can be trackedThe first is to pay attention to the rhythm of the rebound of subway passenger traffic in super large cities, and the second is to pay attention to the Spring Festival transportation data of the Ministry of Communications.
Civil aviation and railways have recovered quickly, and operating road transport has been replaced by self-driving
Compared to 2019, rail and civil aviation traffic is expected to record positive growth, while road and water transport volumes are still expected to decline significantly。In the first 20 days of this year's Spring Festival, the cumulative value of commercial passenger traffic of railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation rebounded compared with the same period last year. 7% and 707%, all of which have rebounded significantly. Compared with the same period in 2019, the cumulative value of railway and civil aviation operating passenger traffic increased by 242% and 187%, while the commercial passenger traffic of roads and waterways fell by 47 respectively5% and 507%, a certain amount of movie box office and tourism degree indicate that residents are more inclined to choose a stable mode of travel after the epidemic.
In terms of structure, this year's Spring Festival transportation continued the characteristics of the epidemic with a significant increase in the proportion of self-driving and a decline in the proportion of commercial passenger traffic, further highlighting the rise of short-distance tourism forms such as peripheral tours. It is worth noting that in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the cumulative number of non-commercial passenger cars on expressways and ordinary national and provincial trunk lines reached 36700 million person-times, an increase of 8 over the same period last year7%, an increase of 312%, from the perspective of proportion, the proportion of self-driving travelers in the first 20 days of this year's Spring Festival reached 821%, although compared to 86 in the same period last year1% is a slight decline, but still significantly higher than the 69 in the same period in 20196%, which is directly related to the emergence of various forms of short-distance tourism such as peripheral travel after the epidemic.
Movie Box Office & Travel:
Consumption of services continued to rebound steadily, while tourism-related spending recorded relatively high growth。According to relevant data released by the People's Bank of China, from Chinese New Year's Eve to the fifth day of the new year, the industry-wide online payment transactions processed by Netlink Clearing Corporation and China UnionPay totaled 153800 million, amount 774 trillion yuan, an increase of 15 over the same period last year8% and 101%。Among them, the consumption expenditure on catering, accommodation, tourism and other related consumption increased by more than 20% year-on-year
Movie box office and revenue are expected to record record highs, and activity is close to the same period last year after excluding the impact of the eight-day holiday。This year's Spring Festival movie box office is expected to record 824.1 billion, but the main reason is that this year's Spring Festival holiday is 8 days long, excluding Chinese New Year's Eve. Judging from the comparison of the same period, the box office of the first to sixth days of the Spring Festival this year recorded 661.4 billion, down from 67 in the same period last year4.8 billion, but the number of moviegoers recorded 13.2 billion, slightly higher than 12.9 billion.
Real estate sales: The pattern of second-hand homes being stronger than new homes continues
New home sales remain low。In previous years, the Spring Festival holiday was from Chinese New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the new year, but this year is the beginning of the new year. According to the seven-day holiday, the transaction volume of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities from the first day to the seventh day of the new year was only 4040,000 square meters, while the record low in the previous five years was 6690,000 square meters.
Second-hand housing transactions are much better than new ones. The volume of second-hand housing transactions before the Spring Festival is at a historically high level, only slightly lower than in 2020 and 2021 in the past six years. Despite the significant drop in volume in the post-holiday week, relative volume is still high in the past few years, second only to 2021 and 2023.
Risk Warning:There are errors in data measurement; Weaker-than-expected changes in economic policy; Overseas demand remains uncertain.
The text is as follows
1 The Spring Festival travel is gradually returning to normal
2024 is a year when large-scale Spring Festival travel will gradually return to normal. The Ministry of Transport previously predicted that the cross-regional flow of people across the country would reach 9 billion during the Spring Festival this year, and the commercial passenger traffic of railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation would exceed 1.8 billion.
Is this year's Spring Festival data up to expectations? What's new?
1.1. Pay attention to the impact of the postponement of the Spring Festival on the resumption of production and work
There is a significant backward phenomenon in this year's Spring Festival. Different from the Spring Festival in previous years, this year's statutory holiday starts from the beginning of the first month, so the Spring Festival migration is significantly backward, and the intensity of migration after the holiday is significantly higher than before the holiday. In the week before the holiday, the migration index was 29%；However, from the first to the sixth day of the new year, the migration index is 7 times higher than that in 20232%。
In terms of direction, the outflow is mainly moving backward, and the outflow in the week after the holiday is 20% higher than last year. In the week before the holiday, the intensity of population outflow in five provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, was weaker than the high point of previous years. Among them, only Guangdong and Zhejiang have reached the second highest outflow intensity in the past five years, surpassing 2023 and second only to 2020; In the other three provinces and cities, the intensity of population emigration is mostly weaker than in 2023. In the week after the holiday, the intensity of population outflow in these five provinces and cities far exceeded that of the same period in previous years, and on average, the intensity of population outflow after the five provinces and cities was more than 20% higher than that in 2023.
Pay attention to whether the post-migration of the Spring Festival will affect the resumption of work. The backward timeline of population outflow may pull the Changchun transportation time, which will have a certain impact on the resumption of production and work after the holiday. The statutory working day starts from the ninth day of the new year, when the changes in the two indicators can be trackedThe first is to pay attention to the rhythm of the rebound of subway passenger traffic in super large cities, and the second is to pay attention to the Spring Festival transportation data of the Ministry of Communications.
1.2 Spring Festival: Civil aviation and railways have recovered rapidly, and operating road transport has been replaced by self-driving
As of the fifth day of the first lunar month (2024 February 14), 20 days have passed since the Spring Festival, and the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society has reached 44700 million, an increase of 13 over the same period last year88%, an increase of 1109%, the scale of the first normalized Spring Festival travel after the epidemic is expected to exceed the pre-epidemic level, recording a record high. According to the cumulative proportion of the flow of people in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival in previous years, it is expected that the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society during the Spring Festival this year will reach 96100 million passengers, slightly exceeding the Ministry of Transport's expected data of 9 billion passengers.
Compared to 2019, rail and civil aviation traffic is expected to record positive growth, while road and water transport volumes are still expected to decline significantlyAs of the fifth day of the first lunar month (2024 February 14), the cumulative commercial passenger traffic of railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation has exceeded 7900 million person-times, an increase of 78%, but only 653%。From the perspective of subdivisions, the cumulative value of railway, highway, waterway and civil aviation commercial passenger traffic in the first 20 days of this year's Spring Festival rebounded compared with the same period last year. 7% and 707%, all of which have rebounded significantly. Compared with the same period in 2019, the cumulative value of railway and civil aviation operating passenger traffic increased by 242% and 187%, while the commercial passenger traffic of roads and waterways fell by 47 respectively5% and 507%, to a certain extent, indicates that residents are more inclined to choose a highly stable mode of travel after the epidemic.
In terms of structure, this year's Spring Festival transportation continued the characteristics of the epidemic with a significant increase in the proportion of self-driving and a decline in the proportion of commercial passenger traffic, further highlighting the rise of short-distance tourism forms such as peripheral tours. 。It is worth noting that in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the cumulative number of non-commercial passenger cars on expressways and ordinary national and provincial trunk lines reached 36700 million person-times, an increase of 8 over the same period last year7%, an increase of 312%, from the perspective of proportion, the proportion of self-driving travelers in the first 20 days of this year's Spring Festival reached 821%, although compared to 86 in the same period last year1% is a slight decline, but still significantly higher than the 69 in the same period in 20196%, which is directly related to the emergence of various forms of short-distance tourism such as peripheral travel after the epidemic.
2 Consumption of services: film box office and tourism
Consumption of services continued to rebound steadily, while tourism-related spending recorded relatively high growthAccording to relevant data released by the People's Bank of China, from Chinese New Year's Eve to the fifth day of the new year, the industry-wide online payment transactions processed by Netlink Clearing Corporation and China UnionPay totaled 153800 million, amount 774 trillion yuan, an increase of 15 over the same period last year8% and 101%。Among them, the consumption expenditure on catering, accommodation, tourism and other related consumption increased by more than 20% year-on-year
Movie box office and revenue are expected to record record highs, and activity is close to the same period last year after excluding the impact of the eight-day holidayThis year's Spring Festival movie box office is expected to record 824.1 billion, but the main reason is that this year's Spring Festival holiday is 8 days long, excluding Chinese New Year's Eve. Judging from the comparison of the same period, the box office of the first to sixth days of the Spring Festival this year recorded 661.4 billion, down from 67 in the same period last year4.8 billion, but the number of moviegoers recorded 13.2 billion, slightly higher than 12.9 billion.
3 Real estate sales: The pattern of second-hand homes being stronger than new homes continues
New home sales remain lowIn previous years, the Spring Festival holiday was from Chinese New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the new year, but this year is the beginning of the new year. According to the seven-day holiday, the transaction volume of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities from the first day to the seventh day of the new year was only 4040,000 square meters, while the record low in the previous five years was 6690,000 square meters.
Second-hand housing transactions are much better than new ones. The volume of second-hand housing transactions before the Spring Festival is at a historically high level, only slightly lower than in 2020 and 2021 in the past six years. Despite the significant drop in volume in the post-holiday week, relative volume is still high in the past few years, second only to 2021 and 2023.
4 Risk Warning
There are errors in data measurement; Weaker-than-expected changes in economic policy; Overseas demand remains uncertain.
The above is part of the report, please refer to the full report "Pay attention to the impact of the Spring Festival travel on the resumption of production and work".