Text: I want to speak by the column.
Real estate is a mirage built on the quicksand ...... confidenceSuccess is also confidence, defeat is also confidence ......
Evergrande liquidation ......Landmark eventsIt's always going to be like a virus, it willConsensusSpread to susceptible populations ......
How's the faith?
There are also policies to save confidence, and the new deal of Guangzhou's property market has been bombarded for several days.
Two key points: 1) Relax the purchase restrictions on units above 120 square meters, and the rich live or speculate, casually.
2) The house in the nameIt's doneIf you rent it out, or if it is listed for sale, it will no longer occupy the place, and the interest rate can also be based on the first home.
Well, those who want to speculate see the full liberalization, and those who don't want to speculate see that there is still a limited purchase!
Traditional great wisdom, smooth on both sides!
The smoothness of both sides is indeed very much in line with the great wisdom of the traditional golden mean, but it seems to be a little less sharp? Less sharpness wasn't a problem or an advantage in the past, but sometimes it seemed like a problem?
Like a bailout? Saving the market is to save expectations, how can we save expectations? It needs to be far more advanced in strength and sharpness than the market expects!
1) For example, in the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve bailed out the market by pushing the interest rate to the end, and then cooperating with *** to throw money?
2) For example, in 2020, the Federal Reserve's emergency bailout will push the interest rate to the end, and then cooperate with the financial department to throw a lot of money?
Bailouts don't need to be smooth on both sides. Bailing out the market requires far more than the market expects, and bailing out the market requires extreme sharpness!
Why is the trend still very bad after the RRR cut?
Why is it that letting go of having children makes it even more lifeless?
For example, if you want to save confidence and cut interest rates, you have to run ahead of the marketThe intensity will have to far exceed market expectationsIf the central bank's operation cannot exceed market expectations, it will become a confirmation of economic reality, which will make the market have a consensus. I was a little hesitant when I looked at the flowers in the fog, but once the reality was confirmed, there was a consensus, and the trend was even worse.
For example, when giving birth to a child, there is no more advanced stimulus measure, and letting go of the birth of a baby is not a stimulus to the population, but a confirmation of the population reality. When I look at flowers in the fog, I always feel that everyone else wants to give birth, and I am still a little hesitant to give birth to or not. Once it is released, it confirms the consensus that everyone doesn't want to have children, and there is no hesitation, let alone children!
Or the housing market? There is no more advanced stimulus (e.g. a 100 basis point rate cut?). For example, before 2000, megacities sent blue-printed household registrations? For example, residents throw money at the end, etc.), will the lifting of purchase restrictions just confirm the consensus that buying a house is not profitable? What's more, there is such a landmark event as the liquidation of Evergrande? Once there is a consensus that buying a house is not profitable, will no one buy a house even more?
If you lose a kind of sharpness, let go of having children and have no life!
There is less of a sharpness, and the ** trend is even worse?
There is less of a kind of sharpness, and no one will buy it when the restrictions on house purchases are lifted?
As far as real estate is concerned, how strong and sharp can it run ahead of market expectations?
The strength and sharpness of the rescue are historical references! In accordance with 2008 and 2015 yearsThe history of real estate bailouts has comeLook,At least another 100-150 basis point rate cutOnly then can we run to the front of the market and succeed in rescuing the market. Note that at least, because it has not taken into account the drag of factors such as population decline, leverage space and housing market size!
Is a 100-150 basis point rate cut feasible? Will there be an impact on interest rate differentials and exchange rates? A classic question arises hereGuarantee the exchange rate or protect the real estate? Presumably some constraints affected the results? In short, the bailout seems to be a little less sharp!
Without that sharpness, the smoothness on both sides just confirms reality!
Without that kind of sharpness, the bailout has become a confirmation of economic reality, and buying a house is not a consensus being established, but a consensus. Landmark events will always spread like a virus, and Evergrande's liquidation will probably spread the consensus virus to the ...... vulnerable population
Buying a house without making money is accelerating to becomeGeneral consensus, housing prices will accelerate towards the return of "housing not speculation"!
Housing is renting**, and housing prices can only follow the rent-to-sale ratio. Considering the depreciation of empty windows, maintenance liquidity, etc., the rent-to-sale ratio must be higher than the fixed deposit interest rate, right? How much does it take for house prices to stop falling? The rent-to-sale ratio will return to 3% first, and then talk about stopping the decline, right?
The consensus is universally confirmed, and the acceleration of the collapse is confirmed!
Summary: It's time to land!
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