To be honest, there has been a lot of good news about the property market recently, which makes me feel as if the property market is going to work again. First, on February 5, the governor of the central bank made it clear that the reserve requirement ratio would be lowered by 05 percentage points; Then on the 25th, it said that it would reduce the re-lending and rediscount interest rates for supporting agriculture and small enterprises by 025 percentage points;
At the same time, the PBOC will also establish a new department, the Credit Markets Division. What is the purpose of setting up a new department? Of course, it is to supervise whether the bank has released the loan that should be released as required. It is to force the bank to lend the funds in their hands to those developers who need funds and buyers who need loans to buy houses.
A set of combos only gives people a feeling: too anxious. Really, it seems that the property market has reached the point where it must rise quickly, and if you can't get up, I will continue to increase the "dosage".
After all, according to the usual procedures, interest rate cuts and RRR cuts need to be announced first, stickers, and paved for a while before they are implemented. However, this time, it was 12 days ahead of schedule from the announcement of the measures to the implementation of the measures. The feeling I have is three sentences: the efficiency of lending should be improved, the above attaches great importance to it, and the effect must be seen in the short term!
Why are you in such a hurry? Just look at the recent data.
First of all, the land auction data in various places is very poor, the income of land is declining sharply, and the local finances are very tight! Public data shows that in 2022, the income from local land sales across the country will be 668 trillion, down 23% from 2021;
In the first 11 months of 2023, the income from local land sales across the country was 42031 trillion, down 205%。
Take the popular city of Hangzhou as an example:
In 2022, Hangzhou's land sales income will be 2203400 million, ranking second in the country, with a financial dependence on land of more than 140%.
However, in 2023, Hangzhou's land purchase income will be 178 billion, still ranking second in the country, but the decline will reach 192%。
There are also Foshan, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Guiyang, Nanning, Changzhou, Zhuhai and other cities with more than 100 land financial dependence in the country
They face similar or even more serious problems than Hangzhou in terms of land transfer revenue.
Then there is the foreclosure house data in 2023, which really dare not look at it directly, and the number has doubled, which is overwhelming.
According to the monitoring of the middle finger auction database, as of December 2023, the national foreclosure market has listed all kinds of foreclosure auctions**7960,000 sets, compared to 58 in 202230,000 units, an increase of 367%, the supply side of the foreclosure market has heated up significantly.
From the perspective of the number of listings, in 2023, the number of auction houses listed for auction will increase by 36 compared with the previous year7%, and the number of auction sets is 7960,000 sets. Among them, the number of houses listed in 2023 will be 3890,000 sets, accounting for 489%。
Compared with the data of 2022, the number of foreclosure houses listed for auction in the country is 5830,000 sets, and the number of lots sold is 1260,000 sets, with a total turnover of 3004600 million yuan. A total of 27 residential buildings will be auctioned in 202220,000 sets, accounting for 467%。
After comparison, we found that the number of residential foreclosures in 2023 is more than 100,000 units higher than in 2022.
For foreclosure houses, many of them are business bosses, when the property market is good, they will even increase leverage to stock up on a few more suites, and then wait for the rapid decline, coupled with the fact that the business is not very good, they begin to be anxious, and they are extremely unoptimistic about the future expectations, so they simply stop the loan and cut off the supply.
Of course, more often than not, there is really no money in hand, and the business loses money, and the real is unable to repay the monthly payment, so it can only be forced to ask the bank to take the house back for auction.
Faced with this situation, the state isDirect two-pronged,It seems that he is determined to pull up the property market in the short term. The so-called two-pronged approachThe first is January 25,Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that the real estate industry chain is long and wide-ranging, which has an important impact on the national economy and is closely related to the lives of the peopleThe financial industry has an unshirkable responsibility and must vigorously support it.
And then there wereOn the morning of January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural DevelopmentConvening a meeting on the deployment of the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financingIt is pointed out that the implementation of the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing should be accelerated and effective, and the development and construction of real estate projects should be supported.
In just two days, two consecutive "ultimates" were releasedIt's really unprecedented. The former is to require that the funds must be in place, give the developer an emergency blood transfusion, as long as there is an asset mortgage, speed up the procedures for the mortgage, and must not let them fall into the darkness before dawn!
The latter is the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to give the local government the right to regulate and control, so that they have greater autonomy to adjust the property market policy according to the situation of their own city, which has just been said, Guangzhou will directly release the purchase restrictions of more than 120 square meters of residences, which is really fast!
So the question is, is the property market going to "take off" in this case? Is it time to buy a house as soon as possible in 2024?
In fact, I personally think that you don't have to worry too much, all policies will inevitably take time to digest and transmit, and it is not too late to see what the direction of the situation is developing. After all, it takes a process to build the confidence of home buyers, and even if the property market really wants to "take off", it is difficult to have the crazy scene as before.
Even in the difficult year of 2023, housing is still mentioned again at the end of the year, indicating that the high-level hopes that the property market will resume stable development, and stability is the ultimate goal.
Reduce mortgage interest rates and vigorously build affordable housing, in order to solve the problem of rigid housing, the fundamentals of skyrocketing housing prices have disappeared, and only fewer good houses will have the ability to continue to increase in value in the future, and the differentiation will inevitably gradually widen and deepen.