For the current photovoltaic industry, confidence is more important than **.
The tide of price reductions of raw materials and products caused by phased overcapacity is still spreading, and has been passed to the capital market and photovoltaic manufacturing, which is a great psychological test for investors and photovoltaic entrepreneurs.
Since September 2023, PV modules have fallen below the breakeven line of 1 yuan watts, which has been transmitted to the upstream cell, silicon wafer and silicon material links, triggering the follow-up price reduction of upstream products, resulting in a decline in the performance of manufacturers, which will break out in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Recently, TCL Zhonghuan (002129), a leading silicon wafer company, reported a loss of 13 in the fourth quarter of 20238.8 billion - 19At the same time as the 8.8 billion yuan thunder, Jiayu shares (300117) of cross-border HJT photovoltaic modules broke out a bigger thunder.
The door, window and curtain wall manufacturer, which began to transform to photovoltaic as early as 2017 and 2018, expects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion yuan in 2023, and may also be subject to delisting risk warning, that is, wearing stars and hats. Dragged down by this bearishness, Jiayu shares fell by 20cm for two consecutive trading days, with a maximum decline of nearly 50% in three trading days.
Jiayu shares are expected to have a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for the whole year, with a net loss of 1On the basis of 2.4 billion yuan, the company's net loss in the fourth quarter widened to about 107-13.700 million yuan. Although Jiayu disclosed in the announcement that the obvious change in performance was mainly due to the impairment of real estate customer assets, its photovoltaic business accounted for about 70% of its revenue in the first half of 2023, which shows that the photovoltaic industry has also had a significant impact on its performance.
HJT is regarded as one of the mainstream of the next generation of N-type technology, attracting a large number of manufacturers to come across the border, and it can be seen from the 2023 performance answer sheet handed over by the concept listed company that the huge investment in the early stage has not achieved the ideal output.
In the field of HJT cells and modules, Risen Energy and Huasheng New Energy are first-line leading manufacturers of HJT. Risen Energy achieved profitability in the fourth quarter, and its performance was extraordinary. In addition, Huasheng New Energy, which has been expanding production, has also performed well. According to Huasheng New Energy's official announcement, it has achieved profitability in 2023.
Excluding the above two companies, the performance of other HJT concept listed companies on the A** field is not satisfactory. Companies such as King Kong Photovoltaic, Aikang Technology, Quanwei Technology, Guosheng Technology, Mingyang Intelligence, Boamax Technology and Liansheng Technology have pre-disclosed their 2023 performance forecasts, and only Mingyang Intelligent is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3 in 20235.4 billion - 5300 million yuan, and other companies are expected to have a net loss for the full year of 2023.
After careful calculation, the 2023 performance expectation of Mingyang Intelligence, a complete wind power manufacturer of cross-border HJT, is not ideal. The company achieved 12. in the first three quarters of 2023The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.8 billion yuan, and the annual net profit was 35.4 billion - 5300 million yuan means that the fourth quarter "reversed" 700 million-800 million yuan.
Among the listed companies with the concept of HJT, the performance of iKang Technology has also changed face. In the first three quarters of 2023, iKang also achieved 0The net profit attributable to the parent company of 20.2 billion yuan will be a loss of 3 in 2023700 million-7400 million, which means that the net loss in the fourth quarter reached 3900 million-7600 million yuan.
Boamax Technology's net loss in the first three quarters of 2023 was 0.3.8 billion yuan, with an expected net loss of 03.5 billion - 07 billion yuan. Liansheng Technology's net loss in the first three quarters of 2023 was 019.3 billion yuan, with an expected net loss of 03 billion - 06 billion yuan.
Guosheng Technology's net loss in the first three quarters of 2023 was 017.9 billion, with an expected net loss of 032.5 billion - 06.5 billion yuan. Quanwei Technology's net loss in the first three quarters of 2023 was 0.29.4 billion yuan, with an expected net loss of 1 in 20230.8 billion yuan-15.8 billion. The comparison found that the spring was a net loss of about 0 in the fourth quarter7.8 billion - 1$2.8 billion.
As for the reasons for the change in performance, Quanwei Technology, Liansheng Technology and Guosheng Technology respectively mentioned factors such as photovoltaic overcapacity, high investment costs in the early stage, and no scale effect was formed, resulting in the expansion of losses.
Guosheng Technology said in the announcement that the performance change is due to the downturn in the garden industry market on the one hand, on the other hand, due to the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry, the first to explore, the industry competition is increasingly intensified, and some of the company's production bases were completed and started late, and the production line is in the ramp-up period, resulting in insufficient capacity utilization, high fixed costs, low gross profit margin of products, and the company has made impairment losses on inventory and accounts receivable in the photovoltaic sector.
Quanwei Technology said that in 2023, with the commissioning of the company's Shandong Zaozhuang production base, the ramp-up of production and the gradual delivery of orders, the company's photovoltaic new energy business revenue will continue to increase. However, due to the fact that the business in this sector is still in the construction investment period, the upfront cost is high, and the scale effect has not yet appeared.
Liansheng Technology mentioned in the announcement that the main reason for the change in performance was that during the reporting period, the company's strategic transformation and upgrading, the layout of photovoltaic new energy business, and the investment in the construction of photovoltaic HJT cell projects, the increase in related expenses, resulting in an increase in losses.
In terms of production capacity, Quanwei Technology, Guosheng Energy, Mingyang Intelligent and Boamax Technology have formulated a considerable scale of HJT cell and module expansion plans.
Quanwei Technology plans to expand the production capacity of 10GW cells and 20GW modules at its two project bases in Zaozhuang, Shandong Province and Sixian County, Anhui Province. Guosheng Energy has expanded production in Xuzhou in Jiangsu, Tangshan in Hebei, Ruoqiang in Xinjiang and Huainan in Anhui, and plans to build 30GW of HJT cell and module production capacity each during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
Mingyang Intelligent has built 2Under the premise of 5 cell and 2GW module production capacity, a total of 15GW cell and 15GW module expansion plans are planned in Shaoguan, Guangdong, Yancheng, Jiangsu and Maanshan, Anhui. Mingyang Solar has launched a new generation of "Suzaku" series of high-efficiency HJT modules MYMH-72HD and MYMH-78HD, with the highest power of 600W and 640W respectively, and the highest conversion efficiency of up to 232% and 229%。
It is expected that by the end of 2023, Boamax Technology will put into production HJT battery production capacity of 25GW, with 2GW of HJT module capacity. The company plans to build 10GW of HJT cell and module production capacity in Huaiyuan, Anhui Province and Etuoke Banner, Inner Mongolia.
Liansheng Technology, formerly known as "35 Interconnection", is expected to have an HJT battery production capacity of 38GW, it plans 8GW and 12GW HJT cell production capacity in Meishan, Sichuan Province and Nantong, Jiangsu Province, respectively, and plans to invest in the construction of HJT battery production capacity of 20GW.
HJT track players are also like carp crossing the river, Anhui Guangxi Energy, Letong Co., Ltd., Zhengye Technology, Chuangu Technology, State Power Investment New Energy, China Resources Power, China Building Materials Junxin, Zhuhai Hongjun, Zhongneng Chuang, Hengxi Photovoltaic, Hongxi Energy, Tongze Energy, Tianchen Co., Ltd., Baichuan Changyin, Wuzhu Technology and Juneng Power and other manufacturers have HJT layout and expansion intentions.
Compared with N-type TOPCON technology, HJT technology has the advantages of high efficiency and beautiful appearance, but it has a high threshold for actual initial investment cost. This has led to mainstream first-tier manufacturers preferring the cost-effective and efficient TOPCon route.
At the same time, due to the constraints of high investment costs of HJT, the production speed of HJT projects is not as expected. By the end of 2022, HJT's investment in a single GW of equipment was about 3500 million yuan to 400 million yuan.
Excessive investment costs have led to the termination or postponement of multiple projects. On December 30, 2023, Shanmei International terminated the 3 billion yuan HJT expansion project. Earlier, Aowei Communication also terminated the 4.5 billion yuan HJT expansion plan.
For HJT players inside and outside the market, the performance of HJT concept listed companies has become one of the vanes of production expansion. In the context of industry-wide price reductions, the risk of high investment costs in HJT is infinitely magnified. In view of the large investment of HJT manufacturers in the early stage, the performance of manufacturers has generally weakened, and the willingness and confidence of HJT projects to expand production have also been hit.
It is possible to make such an assumption that the market will continue to adjust for a long time, and the company's net loss will further expand, and whether the expansion plans of HJT players will be stranded. Obviously, HJT players' performance in 2023 will be a loss, not only to themselves, but also to other players to throw a "hold on or give up?" Multiple choice questions.
It is necessary to recognize that the industry-wide jumping sale and the tireless loss of money have made the photovoltaic industry extremely distorted. This continues to eat away at the confidence of leading manufacturers, and it is also hitting the confidence of new HJT players. (Grassroots PV).