Recently, the 10th Annual Meeting of the China Wealth Management 50 Forum 2023 was successfully held in Shenzhen. With the theme of "The Road to High-quality Financial Development under the New Development Pattern", this annual meeting invites first-class departments, experts, scholars, and industry leaders to carry out high-level exchange of ideas, share insights, and look forward to cutting-edge trends. General Manager of China Post Wealth ManagementPeng KunAttended and delivered a speech at the forum on "Investment Outlook: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies in 2024".
Peng Kun said that in 2023, the investment environment of bank wealth management will face "five changes": first, market expectations will be more rational;The second is the repair of low customer confidence;Third, the asset structure is more stable;Fourth, the operation of wealth management companies is under constant pressureFifth, regulatory adjustments bring higher requirements. In 2024, the focus will be on "three insistences": first, adhere to the concept of large-category allocation, focus on key points and grasp structural opportunities;The second is to adhere to the service entity and implement the "five articles" to promote high-quality developmentThe third is to insist on preventing risks and promoting development based on security.
The following is the full text of Peng Kun's speech.
Looking at 2024 at this point in time, I can't help but think of how I look at 2023 at the end of 2022. What has changed in this year will have an impact on 2024. Looking ahead, it may make our forward move more solid. In the past year, the investment environment of bank wealth management has faced five changes.
1. The "five changes" of the bank's wealth management and investment environment
First, market expectations are more rational. At this time in 2022, although wealth management products have been falling endlessly, the entire market is full of confidence in the future, and recovery has become the main word of various forums. At this time, after the situation of 2023, everyone's expectations for 2024 will be more rational, and the policy and market will become more moderate and favorable.
The second is the repair of low customer confidence;Due to the volatility of the bond market in 2022, investors have a little doubt about financial management and stable fixed income, we hope that customers can accept the moderate fluctuations brought by net worth, but they have indeed been educated by investors, this is a long process, it is difficult to achieve it overnight, and the base rate of the product and customer feelings will also be an important consideration for a period of time in the future.
Third, the asset structure is more stable;The change in the liability side directly brings about the change in asset allocation. Since 2023, the proportion of banks' wealth management risk assets has declined, the proportion of stable valuation assets has increased significantly, and the proportion of deposit assets in the whole industry has increased by nearly 10 percentage points. On the other hand, the good debt has led to a significant reduction in the spread of urban investment bonds, and the market has swayed from left to right to hard to find, and the "asset shortage" will be more prominent, and the grasp of good assets will be the key to testing the investment ability of wealth management companies.
Fourth, the operation of wealth management companies is under constant pressureOn the one hand, the compression of interest rate spreads has brought pressure on bank income, and on the other hand, it has become the norm for wealth management products to reduce fees and make profits.
Fifth, regulatory adjustments bring higher requirements. Since the promulgation of the New Regulations on Asset Management, banks' wealth management has been moving towards standardization, net worth, and standardization. Recently, the supervision of wealth management, trust and insurance asset management has been unified, and at the same time, consumer protection has been further strengthened, which has brought higher requirements to the operation and management of wealth management companies.
2. The focus in 2024 will be on the "three insistences".
Looking at 2024 based on the present, I think the focus is on the "three insistences":
The first is to adhere to the concept of large-category allocation, focus on key points and grasp structural opportunities.
It is mainly reflected in three aspects:
First, from the macro levelIn 2024, the market is expected to be more rational, the policy will continue to care, the liquidity will still be reasonable, the environment will be good, the probability of big accidents will be small, and the variables may be in the expected difference.
The second is from the perspective of assetsBond marketIt may be a "small bull market that is not easy to do", under the downward trend of long-term pivotal interest rates, the bond market will still present an overall good situation, but the difficulty of investment will increase significantly, because the imbalance between supply and demand of high-quality assets, the decline in leverage returns and the thinning of credit spreads, so it is necessary to increase various studies including macro, credit, trading and institutional behavior in order to seize the opportunity.
EquityIt may be a "structural market with more opportunities", and we are cautious and optimistic as a whole, and the effect of a series of measures to stabilize growth is gradually emergingThe valuation surface has been historically low;The macro and capital aspects should not be bad under the general economic situation;Therefore, in terms of direction, we are full of hope for technology, manufacturing, digital, artificial intelligence, etc., which are larger in valuation repair and high-quality development, and will increase participation through indices and quantitative methods in the form, and increase institutional cooperation in the asset management industry in terms of model.
OverseasIt may be a "non-negligible allocation market", the global growth is slow, the dislocation between China and the United States will gradually weaken, China's recovery should be stronger than in 2023, the US bond interest rate will fall, and the flow of funds to emerging economies will increase, so there are still opportunities for some high-coupon Chinese dollar bonds and dim sum bonds, and there are also trading opportunities for US Treasury bonds, and emerging markets such as India and Vietnam can also participate through ETFs. Of course, there are also in the goods, may also be a variety worth participating in.
The third is from the perspective of risk appetiteIt is still important to stabilize the valuation of assets. At this stage, it is still the key to maintain the low volatility and stability of the product, and rationally allocate certificates of deposit and deposit assetsStrengthen asset allocation management, build a relatively stable asset portfolio, and actively develop hedging tools to reduce risks and stabilize volatility through credit risk mitigation and asset return swap strategies.
The second is to adhere to the service entity and implement the "five articles" to promote high-quality development
* The "five major articles" proposed by the financial work conference pointed out the direction for future financial investment. One isIncrease the proportion of bonds allocated to real enterprises, especially for investment in key industries such as science and technology innovation and important strategic regions;Gradually increase the scale of equity investment, and establish an industrial and industrial investment framework;In the long-term direction, it should be consistent with the national strategy, focusing on advanced manufacturing, information technology, pharmaceutical consumption and other fields. The second isIncrease the proportion of green bonds and equity assets, dig deeper into "dual carbon" and green-related industries, and increase the issuance of ESG products. The third isWe will intensify the development of inclusive financial products such as "Benefiting Farmers" and "New Citizens", further increase research and development in terms of customer group classification and product characteristics, and explore financing and investment linkages with parent banks in specialized, refined, special and new enterprises. Four areIn the field of ageing finance, the existing products should do a good job of stabilizing income, strengthening long-term timing, increasing alternative asset allocation, and at the same time, in accordance with regulatory requirements, layout and development of pension financial management related products with high adaptability and matching. Fifth, yesStrengthen research and investment in the fields of big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligenceLeverage and realize support for digital capabilities and digital industries.
The third is to insist on preventing risks and promoting development based on security.
on liquidity riskCorresponding to the changes in the wealth management assets and liabilities of banks in 2023, first, stable valuation, a significant increase in the proportion of low-liquidity assets, and second, the large scale of short-term products, it is necessary to do a good job in the balance of assets and liabilities, the connection between products and the market, and attach importance to and improve liquidity management capabilities. on credit riskIn the fields of local debt, real estate, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, it is necessary to strengthen credit evaluation research, and do a good job in identifying, adjusting, and exiting in an orderly manner. on market riskIn 2024, it is not ruled out that the bond market will be adjusted again in the short term, and it is necessary to strengthen duration and leverage management, pay attention to institutional behavior, and at the same time, avoid the impact of the superposition of the three risks. on compliance risksIn the current environment, we should also attach great importance to it, do a good job in establishing rules and regulations, and promote the high-quality development of wealth management companies with continuous improvement of capabilities.
This article represents the views of the author and does not necessarily represent the position of the forum. ）
Intern Editor: Qiu Yuyao, Responsible Editor: Zhang Keke.