With the advancement of global energy transition, the development and utilization of renewable energy is becoming more and more extensive, and the importance of energy storage technology as a key means to solve the problem of new energy consumption is self-evident. Especially in the industrial and commercial sector, the potential of the energy storage market is even greater.
Industrial and commercial energy storage refers to the conversion of electrical energy into other forms of energy storage through energy storage equipment in the process of industrial and commercial electricity consumption, so as to be stored in case of emergency. The application of this technology can not only improve the operational efficiency of the power system, but also provide more flexible services for the power market.
Currently, the C&I energy storage market is experiencing unprecedented growth. "2023 China's Industrial and Commercial Energy Storage Development***By 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of global industrial and commercial energy storage will reach 115gw, the cumulative market size of global C&I energy storage will be in the following areas19 billion yuan - 24 billion yuanChina and the United States will account for more than 50% of the world's installed capacity. Behind this growth, there is:Policy support, technological progress and market demandThree-way promotion.
part 1
Policy support
In terms of policy support, all countries are actively promoting the development of energy storage technology. For example, the "Energy Storage First" policy launched by the United States** in 2019 aims to encourage enterprises and individuals to install and use energy storage equipment through subsidies and tax incentives.
The 2023 U.S. IRA Act (Inflation Reduction Act) provides incentives for energy storage projects, extending the ITC (Investment Tax Credit) policy for ten years, including independent energy storage in the scope of ITC credits, and additional subsidies for eligible industrial and commercial projects.
Affected by the policy, U.S. industrial and commercial energy storage will get rid of stagnation and achieve a certain degree of growth, and it is expected that the new installed power in 2023 will increase by 23% year-on-year to 02GW, the new installed power in 2025 can reach 04gw。
In addition, China has also made it clear in the "14th Five-Year Plan" that it is necessary to accelerate the development of the energy storage industry. With the further widening of the peak-to-valley price gap in various parts of China and the decline in the cost of lithium batteries, the IRR (internal rate of return) of industrial and commercial energy storage has steadily increased, and the economy has become more and more obvious. Industrial and commercial energy storage has become the fastest-growing branch of the energy storage track.
In 2022, there will be 0 new industrial and commercial energy storage in the country26gw/0.93GWh, a year-on-year increase of 37% to 179%, and the new capacity accounted for 46% of the world's totalIt is the most important driver of the development of global industrial and commercial energy storage. In the first half of 2023,New nationwideCommercial and industrial energy storageICP filing projects478, with a total capacity of 2827GWh, a year-on-year increase of 1812% and 1231%., is ushering in explosive growth.
"2023 China's Industrial and Commercial Energy Storage Development***By 2025, China's total industrial and commercial energy storage capacity will account for about 4 percent of the total new energy storage capacity5%，According to the estimated total installed capacity of new energy storage of about 70GW, the total installed capacity of industrial and commercial energy storage in China by the end of 2025 will be about 32gw。According to the cost of industrial and commercial energy storage system 1$2 wh-15 yuan wh, energy storage time about 25-hour estimates, about 2. by 20252gw/5.5GWh of room for growth,By 2025, the cumulative market size of China's industrial and commercial energy storage will be about 6.5 billion yuan to 8 billion yuan.
East China leads the development of the whole country. From the perspective of regional distribution, due to the good development of industrial and commercial energy and the rapid promotion of energy transformation in East China, the economy of industrial and commercial energy storage is more prominent with the support of relevant policies, and the project layout is highly motivated. Among the 478 new industrial and commercial energy storage projects filed in the first half of 2023, 209 in Zhejiang Province, accounting for 44%, 98 in Guangdong Province, accounting for 21%, and 83 in Jiangsu Province, accounting for 17%.
With the further in-depth participation of industrial and commercial energy storage in the power market and the improvement of related trading mechanisms, its development will show explosive growth. It is expected that in the next five years, China will become a major driving force for the development of global industrial and commercial energy storage.
part 2
Technological advancements
In terms of technological advancement, the cost of energy storage technology is rapidly decreasing. EspeciallyLithium battery energy storage technologyDue to its superior performance and low cost, it has become the current mainstream energy storage technology. In addition, new energy storage technologies such as hydrogen energy and compressed air energy are also being developed and applied.
In 2023, it will gradually becomeThe "butterfly change" of large energy storage cellsIn this critical year, especially the large-capacity battery cells with battery manufacturers vying to enter the market "300ah+" are the most conspicuous. The application of 300AH+ energy storage cells is accelerating, and 125kW and 250kWh will rise to the mainstream.
And with the increase in the capacity of energy storage cells, first of allThe result is an increase in the energy density of the system. For example, the industrial and commercial energy storage system will increase from the original 215kWh to about 250kWh. Secondly,The corresponding PCS power will also increase accordinglyto form a more efficient system. Under the deterministic trend of "large cells", 125kW 250+kWh may become the mainstream configuration of industrial and commercial energy storage tracks.
In terms of temperature control scheme, the traditional air-cooled battery cluster mainly uses 16 packs, while the liquid-cooled battery cluster uses 48 or 52 packs. Compared with the traditional air-cooled pack, the energy density of liquid cooling is increased by about 30%. Liquid cooling is leading to more compact, energy-dense systems that are being used in large-scale energy storage power plants. At the same time, because the heat dissipation is relatively uniform, the battery cycle life is improved to a certain extent. Although the most important cost factor that once affected the permeability of liquid cooling, it is now almost the same as the cost of traditional air cooling as liquid cooling moves towards large-scale application.
In 2023,The field of PCS has ushered in a revolution in key materials. From the product progress stage directly to the product evolution stage. The "evolution" mainly refers to the evolution of the core power devices of energy storage converters.
With the popularity and commercialization of silicon carbide, power electronics are undergoing a revolution. In general, the use of silicon carbide can make PCS operate more efficiently, be smaller in size, more flexible in installation and use, and save time and labor costs.
In summary, the wave of silicon carbide in the PCS field has also achieved the upgrading of basic materials and improved the key functions of the equipment.
part 3
Market demand
In terms of market demand, in the context of the implementation of the "double carbon" goal, the new energy industry has developed rapidly. The development of industrial and commercial energy storage can allocate backup power supply for enterprises to ensure stable production; Second, based on the electricity price policy, it can reduce costs and increase efficiency; Third, through the implementation of energy storage, we will contribute to the "double carbon".
In addition, the current peak-to-valley price spread arbitrage is the main profit channel for industrial and commercial energy storage, and the downward trend of energy storage systems is expected to further improve the economy. With the oversupply of photovoltaic power generation, the implementation of valley electricity prices at noon may become a trend. Up to now, valley power has appeared at noon in 11 provinces in some months across the country, and 2 charging and 2 discharging have changed from the original 1 peak to valley + 1 peak to 2 peaks and valleys, and the energy storage income has been further improved.
With the reform of the electricity market and the diversification of electricity demand, there is an increasing demand for energy storage from industrial and commercial users.
At the Carbon Neutral Energy Academician Summit Forum and the 3rd China International New Energy Storage Technology and Engineering Application Conference, Wang Zeshen, Secretary-General of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said at the forum that at present, the field of new energy storage is thriving, and the installed capacity of new energy storage has shown explosive growth.
part 4
6 major trends in industrial and commercial energy storage in 2024
Trend 1:In 2023, the growth rate of new installed capacity will reach 105%, and it will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2024。According to the "2024 Global Energy Storage Industry Trends** Report", in 2023, the growth rate of new global industrial and commercial energy storage capacity will exceed that of the source grid side and the household storage end, with a growth rate of 115%. Among them, the growth rate of new installed capacity of China's industrial and commercial reserves reached 105%. According to the report, the new installed capacity of industrial and commercial energy storage in the Chinese market is expected to continue to double and grow rapidly in 2024.
Trend 2:"** war" is about to become "survival war". "There is no most volume in the energy storage industry, only more volume. An energy storage chairman gave this comment during the Shanghai Energy Storage Exhibition at the end of 2023. He believes: "The capacity chain continues to decline, and the bid price of energy storage has dropped by one-third in half a year. The homogenization of products is serious, and the war is intensifying, rushing performance, grabbing share, and falling below the cost. Half spring, half cold snap, is the current situation of our energy storage industry. ”
Trend 3: Grid-connected filing and approval may affect the growth of the industrial and commercial energy storage market。In 2024, the differences in the industrial and commercial energy storage market will continue to expand due to the impact of time-of-use electricity price policies, subsidy policies, and industrial development foundations in different provinces and cities. It is expected that industrial and commercial energy storage will maintain a shipment growth rate of more than 30% in 2024, and the approval of grid-connected filing may become a key factor affecting the growth of market scale.
Trend 4: It is easy to go to sea and difficult to land. Domestic enterprises have accelerated their overseas layout, but they are facing challenges in terms of first-class barriers and international standards; Energy storage cannot be regarded as a simple hardware device, and it will end after delivery, which is not competitive. Energy storage must participate in market transactions in the new power system in order to play its value.
Trend 5: IntelligentIt will become an important means to improve the safety and economy of industrial and commercial energy storage.
Trend 6: The revenue model is constantly enriched, and the economics are expected to be greatly improved. According to the economic model, the current IRR of industrial and commercial energy storage in Guangdong has exceeded 13% (only the peak-to-valley arbitrage part), in addition, industrial and commercial energy storage can also significantly reduce the demand electricity cost, and obtain benefits through virtual power plant peak shaving and valley filling.
part 5
Conclusion
In general, the C&I energy storage market has huge development potential and broad application prospects. In order to promote the development of this market, we need to increase policy support, accelerate technology research and development and innovation, and also solve market, technology and security problems. Only in this way can we give full play to the advantages of energy storage technology, promote the process of energy transition, and achieve the goal of sustainable development.
The 18th China International Battery Chain and Energy Storage Technology Expo 2024 will be held on April 21-23, 2024 at Nanjing International Exhibition Center (No. 88 Longpan Road), with an exhibition area of 50,000 square meters, which will focus on: power batteries, energy storage batteries, energy storage technology applications, battery & cell production and processing equipment, battery processing and production equipment, battery packs, new energy smart factories, battery materials, optical storage and charging and supporting equipment, The ecological closed loop of the whole industry chain such as charging and battery swapping and supporting equipment builds the best display, communication and leading platform for global battery and energy storage industry chain manufacturers and application-side buyers.