I am concerned about the current actions of the Philippines, that they may be seriously miscalculating, and that this could lead to more serious consequences.
As a result of the recent series of frictions, tensions at sea have bordered on the verge of violent conflict.
By looking at the rights enforcement announcements issued by the China Coast Guard since 2024, it can be found that more than half of them are related to the Philippines.
The details are as follows:
On January 21, the Philippines airdropped supplies to an illegal "beached"**, and the Chinese Coast Guard monitored in real time and took control and disposal measures in accordance with the law, making temporary special arrangements for the necessary daily necessities provided by the Philippines.
On January 28, four Filipinos illegally intruded into the reef of China's Huangyan Island, and the Chinese Coast Guard warned them in accordance with the law and carried out professional and standardized on-site handling.
On February 2, a small civilian boat in the Philippines attempted to illegally anchor near Second Thomas Shoal, and the Chinese Coast Guard followed the whole process and took regulatory control measures.
From February 2 to 9, Philippine Coast Guard vessel 9701 repeatedly illegally intruded into waters near China's Scarborough Shoal.
On February 15, the Philippine Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Agency (AFA) vessel 3005 illegally intruded into the waters adjacent to China's Scarborough Shoal.
On February 22 and 23, the Philippine Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Authority (AFA) vessel 3002 insisted on invading the waters adjacent to China's Scarborough Shoal despite repeated dissuasions and warnings from China.
In these events, Scarborough Shoal became the focus of attention.
What is particularly striking is that the main directions in which the Philippines provoked the incident include Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal. Although the reef was once their main attack, perhaps due to the resoluteness of the Chinese side, the popularity of the reef has decreased recently, and the Philippines has sent ships more frequently to attack Scarborough Shoal.
Another striking feature is the very high frequency of incursions in the Philippines.
As can be seen from the notice of the China Coast Guard, the Philippines has recently violated Scarborough Shoal quite frequently. Whether it was the intrusion of four Philippine personnel on January 28, or the Philippine coast guard ships and fishery law enforcement vessels from February 2 to 9, February 15, and February 22 to 23, they all showed a high degree of activity. Even during the Chinese New Year, the Philippines doesn't seem to stop.
The last feature is that the Chinese side showed a high degree of restraint and professionalism.
According to the notice from the China Coast Guard, we have taken a series of countermeasures. Only when the Philippine side ignored "China's repeated dissuasion and warnings" did China take necessary measures such as tracking and monitoring and shipping route control in accordance with the law to drive the Philippine vessel away. Moreover, the China Coast Guard has repeatedly emphasized that "on-site disposal is professionally standardized". The purpose of this practice is clear, which is to prevent the Philippines from taking the opportunity to bite back.
Overall, I would like to express my appreciation for the restraint and professionalism of the China Coast Guard in handling this series of incidents. This response will help maintain regional stability and convey China's resolute position to the Philippines.
For example, in the case of the recent incursion of Philippine fishing vessel No. 3002, the Philippine side claimed that the vessel was providing fuel to Filipino fishermen at the time, but was "interfered with" by a Chinese coast guard vessel and three other Chinese vessels, and that the Chinese side also took "dangerous actions" and that the captain of the 3002 vessel "demonstrated excellent seamanship skills and successfully evaded the Chinese vessel's interception attempt."
This is clearly a slander and exaggeration of China.
If the Chinese side really had to take decisive action, the outcome of the 3002 ship would have been foreseen long ago.
However, the Philippines has always shown a mysterious self-confidence that seems difficult to defeat, always interpreting China's restraint as weakness and China's professional behavior as dangerous. The consequences can be severe.
At the end of last year, the foreign ministers of China and the Philippines had a rare understanding, and Wang Yi also bluntly put forward two stern warnings.
In the first sentence, Wang Yi told the Philippine Foreign Minister: "China-Philippines relations are at a crossroads, and the Philippines must be cautious in handling the matter of which way to go." ”
In the second sentence, Wang Yi told the Philippine Foreign Minister: "If the Philippines misjudges the situation, insists on going its own way, or even conspires with unfriendly external forces to continue to create incidents, China will defend its rights and interests in accordance with the law and resolutely respond." ”
This is a very serious warning.
My personal understanding is that patience on the Chinese side is really limited; Once China's bottom line is touched, the consequences will be very serious.
If the Philippines continues to be obsessed, how will China "resolutely respond"?
I can't**.
Perhaps, no longer limited to water cannon blockades or ship friction, but losing patience and taking decisive action could simply tow away the broken Philippine ship, or start new island construction to solve the problem once and for all.
I really can't**. But everyone can appreciate the seriousness of Wang Yi's two sentences.
I still remember that in the same communication, the foreign ministers of China and the Philippines reached a consensus: they agreed to launch a meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea issue as soon as possible and create positive conditions for this.
That is, to reduce tensions, prevent conflicts, return to the negotiating table, conduct bilateral consultations, and actively create conditions.
However, what is the result?
After a brief lull, the Philippines seems to be back on the old path – provocation.
In particular, in 2024, Philippine activity at Second Thomas Shoal has decreased, but the situation at Scarborough Shoal has escalated dramatically; And the United States seems to be inciting discord even more and is bound to destabilize the whole situation.
What is even more noteworthy is that the Philippine Foreign Minister has one attitude, ** and the Secretary of Defense has another; Some of the ships seem to be more on their own.
This is indeed a test of China's patience!
If the situation continues, it will not be the outcome we wanted. Based on the experience of past struggles, it is not necessarily a bad thing for China; But for the Philippines, it is definitely a serious crisis.
reminds me of a song by Guan Hanqing, a master of loose songs in the Yuan Dynasty, in "Save the Wind and Dust": "At this time, it is too late for the boat to go to the heart of the river to make up for the leak, who is the trouble?" Think carefully beforehand, so that you don't regret it. ”
This means that if you want not to regret it afterwards, you need to think carefully about it beforehand. In military affairs, the impulsive result may lead to becoming cannon fodder, and it will be a situation where "it is too late to rein in the precipice, and it is too late for the ship to fill the leak in the middle of the river"!