——This article is the 93rd issue of the Second Senior Brother Research Institute
Do you know how resilient China's auto market is?
Let's not talk much about the data in 2023, the Passenger Car Association predicts that the new energy vehicle market will remain optimistic in 2024, and the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 11 million, with a penetration rate of 40%. In other words, 4 out of 10 cars sold are new energy vehicles.
But "peers are not profitable" is the norm in the industry, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, which are high in the era of fuel vehicles, seem to have a hard time drinking soup in the new energy market, what happened to them? What does the future hold for them? Today we will talk about it from 5 dimensions.
1. What is the level of BBA's new energy vehicles?
2. Is it difficult for BBA to have the same price of oil and electricity?
3. What is the main reason for the poor sales of BBA new energy vehicles?
4. Why is it difficult to transform new energy in BBA?
What will happen to BBA new energy vehicles?
In the era of fuel vehicles, the strength of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi is obvious to all, and they dominate the technology and design trends of the entire automotive industry to a certain extent.
For example, the air suspension, LED headlights, constant speed range, etc., which we are now familiar with, were first brought up by Mercedes-Benz cars.
However, in the new energy era, BBAs have lost the ability to lead the development of the industry, and several technological battles in China's new energy market in 2023 have nothing to do with them.
Not only that, but they don't even seem to be able to guarantee sales.
Let's take a look at the data first, Audi's best-performing new energy model is the Audi Q4 e-tron, with monthly sales hovering at 2,000 units for several months; BMW's best-performing new energy model is the BMW i3, and the monthly sales have recently exceeded the threshold of 6,000 units, but please note that this is a result after a big drop of about 100,000 yuan; Mercedes-Benz's best-performing new energy model is the Mercedes-Benz EQE, with the largest monthly sales in 2023 just exceeding 1,000.
Anyone who knows a little about China's new energy market knows that these numbers are out of reach.
So far, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi have not found a feeling in the new energy market, and many of the only sales are the result of sharp price cuts.
So, what's wrong with the BBAs?
In 2022, many domestic new energy manufacturers have a small goal: the same price of oil and electricity.
The reason for setting this goal is very simple: the new energy models at that time are generally higher than the same level of oil vehicles, it certainly has the advantages of fuel saving, convenient travel, etc., but the cost of buying a car is too high will directly dissuade consumers, at least to achieve the same price of oil and electricity, consumers are likely to try new energy vehicles.
Unfortunately, it's the beginning of 2024 and the BBAs haven't done it yet.
The BMW i3 is the benchmark for the BMW 3 Series, but it has a starting price of up to $35390,000 yuan, more than 50,000 yuan more expensive than the same level of oil vehicles; The Mercedes-Benz EQC is the benchmark model for the Mercedes-Benz GLC, and it has a starting price of up to 49190,000 yuan, more than 60,000 yuan more expensive than Mercedes-Benz GLC.
Among the new energy vehicles sold by BBA in 2023, the only new energy vehicle with a guide price lower than that of gasoline vehicles of the same level is the EQE SUV, which is 21 lower than the fuel version of the model380,000 yuan, to some extent, this is the beginning of the BBA to reshape the first system, of course, there is a noteworthy difference: EQE SUV is a domestic pure electric SUV, GLE is a pure import.
So why does BBA's new energy vehicle price drop tens of thousands to get a part of the sales?
Do you still remember the old stalk of "200,000 C6 is old-fashioned, and 120,000 C6 is mature and steady"? Many times, whether a car is worth buying or not, the product power of the car itself is important, but more importantly, **.
The same is true for BBA, after the big price reduction, the same price of oil and electricity will be realized, and the sales volume will naturally recover.
So why is it so difficult for BBA to achieve the same price of oil and electricity?
This is a vicious circle: because of low sales, it is impossible to dilute the cost, resulting in the price of new energy vehicles being higher than that of gasoline vehicles; Due to the high price, sales cannot go up.
But the problem is that many domestic manufacturers can't achieve the same price of oil and electricity at the beginning, they can survive, why can't BBA?
It's all about performance.
The logic of domestic new energy manufacturers is like this: first improve product performance, in the process can tolerate a certain loss, rely on product performance to attract users, obtain sales growth, and then use the incremental value to cover the previous losses.
However, BBA's new energy strategy is wrong in product performance.
Take the BMW ix3 as an example, this is a more representative model in BMW's new energy family, with a starting price of up to 4050,000 yuan, but the maximum cruising range of this car is only 550km, the maximum power is only 210kw, it takes 45 minutes to fully charge, the whole system of single motor, no four-wheel drive system, no leather seats, even 360-degree panoramic images need to be optional.
When you compare the domestic 400,000 yuan level pure electric models, you will find that these performances of the BMW ix3 are not even the entry level.
So far, BBA's new energy vehicles have basically followed the trend of domestic high-end new energy vehicles, and no design is leading the industry.
Therefore, until today, even if the price of BBA's trams has been greatly reduced, from "electricity is more expensive than oil" to "the same price of oil and electricity" or even "oil and electricity are upside down", although their sales have increased, it is difficult to change fundamentally.
It can be said that if it were not for the luxury image accumulated for a long time in the past, the performance of new energy products such as BBA would be more unpopular, and their biggest advantage is actually the brand.
In fact, BBA's new energy vehicles are more "wronged" to come up with such a dismal report card, because they are not as resistant to electric vehicles as Toyota, Mercedes-Benz EQ series, BMW I series and IX series, and Audi e-tron series, although they do not sell well, but at least they have a decent product lineup.
In addition, BBA also has its own new energy platform.
Among them, Mercedes-Benz currently has the EVA pure electric platform, the MFA II platform and the MMA platform to be launched in the future. Among them, the all-new domestic EQE SUV, like the EQE sedan, EQS SUV and EQS sedan, is from the EVA pure electric platform; The MFA II is a platform for the rapid transition of oil-to-electric products, which is mainly used in small cars and compact bodies such as EQA. In contrast, the second pure electric platform MMA released by Mercedes-Benz that supports 800V supercharging is the focus, and the new pure electric C-class under development comes from this platform.
BMW's pure electric models are mainly based on the CLAR platform, and the i3, ix3, and global models i5 and i7 are all based on the CLAR platform, but this platform is compatible with multiple power modes of fuel, plug-in hybrid, and pure electric, in other words, it is not a pure electric platform, BMW's new Neue Klasse pure electric platform supporting 800V architecture is planned to be launched in 2025.
Comparatively speaking, Audi's pure electric platform is very rich, at this stage, the pure electric platform includes MLB EVO, J1 Performance, MEB and PPE, the first three have achieved mass production, among them, FAW Audi e-tron uses the MLB EVO platform; The Audi RS e-tron GT comes from the J1 Performance platform, as well as the Porsche Taycan. The Q4 e-tron and Q5 e-tron are from the MEB platform, and the high-end pure electric platform PPE that supports the 800V architecture is the main force for the future, such as the upcoming Q6 e-tron and A6 e-tron.
At a glance, it is not difficult to find that although BBA has a new energy platform, it is basically a beat slower than that of domestic new energy vehicle companies, and so far, their high-voltage pure electric platform supporting 800V is still in the process.
Then the next question arises: why is the new energy transition of the BBA so difficult?
First of all, it is still a matter of the ship making a U-turn.
New energy vehicles are a new thing, it has changed people's car habits and experience, but also washed away the long-term formation of the first system, and BBA as a representative of the old era, most of the income is contributed by fuel vehicles, which determines that they are unlikely to travel lightly.
Secondly, their competitors are too strong.
China's new energy manufacturers have no shortcomings in technology, and dare to work hard in the new energy market, BBA does not have any advantages in technology, so it is difficult to come up with explosive products.
Third, it has to do with the fact that consumers are becoming more and more car-savvy.
In the past, BBA was synonymous with "luxury", "comfort", and "technology"; But under the rolling torrent of China's new energy, under the spread of China's huge self-importance, consumers in the Chinese market are becoming more and more aware of cars, and even when I participated in the first China Intelligent Driving Competition not long ago, there were ordinary consumers who talked about the cutting-edge proper noun of "occupying the network", which called Professor Zhu Xichan, who was a judge, exclaimed.
There is another reason, and that is globalization.
BBA is a global battle, and it is unlikely that they will be completely dominated by the Chinese market, but the problem is that China's new energy market is too special, accounting for 60% of the global share, and BBA is in a dilemma in the face of this level of market; If you want to fight to the death with Chinese manufacturers, what about other markets around the world?
In the field of new energy, the BBA has been defeated again and again, and this attitude proves that there is still hope for them.
In addition, BBA is always BBA, and the brand appeal is the first gear in China, as long as it can come up with a product with strong performance, it can still be recognized by users.
In order to come up with good products, it is necessary to increase R&D investment, and at the same time give more autonomy to China's operation and R&D teams, because this is where new energy vehicle technology and products are most prosperous.
A very simple fact is that you can't design the new energy market based on the experience of the German market, and the sales of electric vehicles in Germany in November were only more than 60,000 units, which is at the level of China's provincial market.
In other words, the experience gained in the German market cannot support a global new energy brand.
If you want to roll up new energy, you must go through the vicious battle of China's new energy vehicle market.
Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi develop new energy vehicles, one has an enlightened attitude, two has abundant funds, and three has the blessing of the brand, so the hope is still relatively large, but the most important point is: to pay attention to China's new energy market. Think about it, a market segment that accounts for 60% of the global market share, it is unlikely that the trend here will deviate, right?
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