Why is the world so chaotic today?
Actually, the answer is not that complicated. The once-US-dominated global order is undergoing a transformation, with China emerging as the world's second-largest economic power, and Russia, India, and the European Union all flexing their influence. Digital technology has broken down the traditional physical isolation, resulting in the original world pattern must be reintegrated and restructured.
Before the 90s, when the United States dominated the Western Hemisphere and the Soviet Union dominated the Eastern Hemisphere, these two powers waged a fierce struggle in the world, each with its own unique dreams and visions.
Despite the frequent wars of the Cold War era, the two political leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union succeeded in maintaining a strategic balance on a global scale, following the principle of "a friend who dies cannot die a poor man."
In the 90s, the situation changed dramatically, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States rose to become the only superpower in the world, which also led to the world entering a pattern of multiple powers, or more precisely, a single-core world and the dominance of the United States in the world.
From that moment on, the United States, on the one hand, held high the banner of democracy and spread doctrines with a sword, and on the other hand, managed and dominated the world order through a global way.
But by 2008, the situation had become more complicated.
After the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States began to question its identity as the world's policeman, and they were no longer keen to promote their own dominance of the global**, nor were they cheerleaders of global values.
There are many factors contributing to this shift, but the most critical one is that while the United States is not declining, other countries are continuing to grow in strength.
They have been at a disadvantage for a long time in the face of the US-dominated global ** rules, so once they have enough strength, they begin to compete for the right to speak, and in some respects have already developed their own rules.
When we look at the causes of global conflicts, we can look for answers from three different perspectives.
The first thing to mention is the awakening of Russia.
It must be understood that in order to better integrate into Western society, Russia has undergone a massive purge of capital, military cuts, and significant geopolitical concessions. In the apathy of the West, Putin has firmly entrenched a tough domestic policy. Putin had planned to engage with the Western world as an ordinary power, but in the end he was met with cold reception and betrayal.
Whether from Georgia to Syria to Ukraine, the Russian population has shown strong anger, which undoubtedly has serious consequences!
Putin no longer pretended, but confessed his position!
Therefore, when Ukraine was ready to completely tilt towards the West, the ** people acted decisively, both to protect their bottom line and at the same time to completely break off relations with the Western world.
The second event was the rise of China, which changed the dominance of the United States in the global economy.
Before officially becoming a member of the WTO, China's total economic size was about 1At $34 trillion, which puts it in sixth place in the global economy, its GDP per capita is only $1,000, which is not even as good as the neighboring Southeast Asian region.
For Americans, if China is closely connected to the global system, its political, economic, and even social structure will undergo profound changes.
Although the Americans correctly ** the beginning of the story, they did not ** reach the end of the story.
In the more than 20 years since China's accession to the WTO, China has implemented a series of economic reforms and opening-up policies, resulting in a more than tenfold surge in GDP and a rapid rise to become the world's second largest economy. Although hundreds of millions of people in China have been lifted out of poverty, there has been no fundamental change in the way society operates.
To put it another way, although China has become richer and stronger, it has not been where the United States would like it to be.
Even more thorny is that as China and the United States continue to expand, there are problems such as deficits, intellectual property disputes, and scientific and technological innovation competitions, which make Americans feel that China's rise poses a serious threat to their interests.
Therefore, the United States has spared no effort in carrying out measures such as technological blockade, near-overseas outsourcing, and globalization over the past two decades, which is undoubtedly a complete denial of its past work experience.
Eventually, there was a sharp rift in relations between the United States and other Western countries.
We must understand that at the heart of globalization lies in the redistribution of chains and production networks, which leads to the transfer of capital and manufacturing from developed countries to developing countries with lower costs and higher profits.
In this process, the capital group has made huge profits, but at the same time, the state has lost its traditional productive capacity, resulting in a large number of people at the bottom losing their jobs and gradually becoming victims of the globalization process.
Mr. Chuan keenly captures this central issue, saying "make America great again" to promote a revival in manufacturing, create jobs for ordinary people, and help the United States get rid of the global problems that waste money but are unpopular.
What is interesting is that after Biden took office, he completely denied President Trump, but he always insisted on implementing President Trump's economic strategy, which shows that the comprehensive contraction of the United States is not an individual decision, but the common voice of "voters".
Once we understand the above three points, we can understand why the current world is so chaotic. We know that in the process of development, a country will inevitably face various contradictions and conflicts. From Russia and Ukraine, to the Middle East, to Taiwan and the seas, 90% of the world's geopolitical tensions and conflicts are based on these three logics.
At the moment, we live in an environment where there is a lack of leaders, or more precisely, the existing global pattern has been disrupted, and a completely new world order is gradually taking shape.
First of all, let's talk about the issue of order in military security.
Whether you want to accept this fact or not, the United States and its allies remain the main players on the planet.
Over the next 30 years, no country or institution will be able to challenge the military status of the United States. The United States is a unique country in the world with the ability to deploy troops and ** anywhere in the world. It's not that other countries can't do it, it's that they can't do it at all.
Over the past decade or so, China's military power has continued to rise at a marked rate, with its defense budget exceeding $230 billion, making it the second largest in the world. However, the current situation is that China is invincible inside Asia, and it is constantly changing outside Asia.
However, from an objective point of view, excessive military spending is like a double-sided knife. Although we have repeatedly emphasized the importance of peace, Japan and the Philippines do not see it that way, which has led them to become more dependent on the United States simply in search of a safe haven.
Looking at the situation in Europe, it has become quite clear.
With Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the countries of Western Europe have gradually become more dependent on the US-led NATO military organization. Since 2014, NATO's military spending in Eastern Europe has increased by 40%, while Germany is gradually increasing its defense budget, despite which Russia's military threat to Europe is gradually decreasing.
After two years of fighting, Russia has lost more than 200,000 troops and numerous military equipment, and combined with various economic sanctions from Europe and the United States, its military superiority may be difficult to recover in the future.
It will be difficult for any country to be able to shake the military position of the United States and its allies for the next 10 years, but fortunately, all have nuclear **, which will help maintain a semblance of relative peace, so that no matter how chaotic the world is, a third world war will not be triggered.
Of course, the global economic order cannot ignore the importance of the security order.
Despite the many problems facing the United States, it remains an extremely powerful economic entity in the financial and technological sectors. The United States has strong technology and capital, but in the world, the United States is still a technological power and capital exporter, and it is the only country in the world that has not been defeated. Although the United States has the ability to use its core technology to limit the scientific and technological progress of other countries, this has not hindered the normal functioning of the world**.
Therefore, although the war has been going on for more than 4 years, China and the United States still maintain close economic ties and are difficult to control each other.
Although the amount of ** between China and the United States has experienced some fluctuations in recent years, it has generally maintained a considerable size. If you stretch the timeline, you will be surprised to learn that the current Sino-US relationship is actually still at the highest level in history.
They tend to keep their views succinctly relative to other countries, eager for U.S. military support on the one hand, and desperate for access to the Chinese market on the other.
By 2030, China is likely to become the world's largest consumer market, a fact that companies and capital cannot pretend to be invisible.
If only the two largest economies, China and the United States, choose the Cold War, then the outbreak of a real Cold War will be very difficult, because other countries are fully capable of freely shuttling between these two economies and conducting two-way negotiations.
The EU is the world's largest common market, and they have the ability to set strict rules to suppress foreign businesses, and if you want to make a profit there, you will have to face the ethical judgment of Europeans and tough business regulations.
When it comes to India, despite their impressive economic performance, they are known as the "crematorium for foreign companies". Their goal is to become a replacement for China, and their main business is to make profits for India and bring it home.
Of course, Japan is also an example, and the economic fluctuations of these economies are largely dependent on the best exchanges between China and the United States, and frankly, they are all vested interests affected by the crowding out effect of China's manufacturing industry.
If we consider the economic pattern of the past decade as a process of globalization led by China and the United States, then in the next decade, we are likely to face multi-level market competition in the context of globalization.
The United States plans to use its military power to bind more global economic interests, for example, if Europe wants to confront Russia, then it must align itself with the United States in terms of economic policy; In such an environment, countries have adjusted their strategies and positions. Japan is afraid of being attacked, so it needs to make more compromises economically and technologically.
Whether it's semiconductors, critical minerals, or technology companies, the U.S. is maintaining security order to ensure the stability of its economy.
Japan, Europe, India, and other developing countries will do everything in their power to ensure that two or more economies function properly, not allowing one to dominate the other.
This may be an indication of how the global economy will work in the future, somewhat like a large-scale cycle, with China and the United States being two nested economies. In addition, there are multiple economic models that interact with each other, which means that global business activities will become increasingly difficult, and individual countries may initiate protectionist policies, either actively or passively.
Now that we have an in-depth understanding of the security and economic order, let's take a closer look at a third order that may emerge in the future world, the digital order.
Unlike the previous two orders, the digital order is not controlled by **, it is more held by technology companies. From a practical point of view, the importance of the digital order goes even beyond the security and economic spheres.
Let's give a few examples for everyone to experience together.
It's no secret that NATO has provided Ukraine with numerous military aids during the war, but few people really recognize the decisive role that tech companies play in it.
If it weren't for Musk's Starlink to bring cyber aid to Ukraine, Ukraine's top leadership would not be able to effectively coordinate the fight with frontline troops. Zelensky is also unable to show his resolute resistance in public, and Ukraine could completely collapse within weeks of the outbreak of the war, as well as the psychological defenses of soldiers.
In addition, the impact of socialization on a country is gradually expanding.
Without Twitter (now X), it would have been difficult for Trump to show his toughness in front of hundreds of millions of viewers, and he would not have been able to orchestrate a shocking operation like the Redneck siege of Capitol Hill.
From the Arab Spring to Thailand's three-finger confrontation with the Palestinians and Israelis in New York's Times Square, tech companies are faced with a choice: spread disinformation, conspiracy theories, or block information that is based on truth but detrimental to social harmony.
What you observe is what tech companies want to show you, and in this tech-dominated society, no one can escape the shackles of system algorithms.
Data is seen as a tool for production, and algorithms are the driving force for production.
It's a shame that both of these core resources are completely controlled by tech companies, the system labels everyone, the algorithm determines who you are and who you are, and all your actions are screened by the system.
To put it another way, you can only be the person the system wants you to be in the future.
Technology companies are no longer purely commercial entities, but are closely integrated with the world, and they have become the most efficient and intuitive management tools in authoritative organizations.
If China and the United States want greater decision-making power in the digital age, a full-blown tech cold war is inevitable. In this digital field, the boundaries of information become blurred and far-reaching. This also means that the digital world is about to be divided into two separate areas, such as Apple and Android, which are not compatible with each other, but they are moving in the same direction.
However, on the other hand, if tech companies can maintain their global business models, the future of the world will be a cross-server competition between the digital and the physical. Once the digital order begins to dominate, the management ability of the first will be severely hit, and technology companies will become the best hands behind it, and we will usher in a new world order dominated by technology.
It must be understood that the rapid development of science and technology and revolutionary technological progress will not be suspended. Since the release of Chat GPT, AI technology has exceeded people's expectations and imagination. In today's world, we have the ability to develop not only new antibiotics, but also new smallpox viruses. AI will not only replace half of humanity's jobs, but it will also foster self-awareness and create shockingly large wealth for a few.
Therefore, it is quite difficult to evaluate these tech giants in numbers, as they will become the most influential people on the planet and will determine the future direction of human society.
The next superpower may not just exist on a physical level, but more likely to be a tech company with a lot of data and absolute computing power.