China's real estate market will continue to be under pressure in 2023, and the overall situation is still in a period of low adjustment.
According to a report released by CRIC Research Center a few days ago, in 2023, the year-on-year decline in the performance of the top 100 real estate sales companies will continue to expand and continue to build a bottom**. In terms of the land market, the amount of land acquired by real estate companies will continue to be the largest in 2023, and the investment willingness of real estate companies is still at a low level, with nearly half of the top 100 real estate companies in sales suspending their investment throughout the year.
The performance of the top 100 real estate companies in sales decreased by 16 year-on-year5%, 100 billion real estate enterprises further decreased.
From the perspective of the sales of real estate enterprises, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies in December 2023 achieved sales of 4512900 million yuan, an increase of 157%, an increase lower than the same period in previous years;A year-on-year decrease of 346%, the year-on-year decline remained at a high level during the year. Although major real estate companies increased supply and marketing efforts at the end of the year, the recovery momentum of the property market was insufficient, and the sales side did not improve significantly. In terms of cumulative performance, the top 100 real estate companies in sales achieved sales of 54,049 from January to December500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 165%, the cumulative performance decline continued to expand.
According to the report, the number of companies with a year-on-year decrease in the cumulative performance of the top 100 sales in 2023 accounts for nearly 70%, of which 31 have a year-on-year decline of more than 30%.
However, under the market adjustment, some real estate companies still show strong resilience and repair ability, such as China Overseas Real Estate, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, C&D Real Estate, Huafa Co., Ltd., Yuexiu Real Estate, Poly Real Estate, Dahua Group, etc., have achieved positive sales growth. Among them, many local state-owned enterprises such as Lianfa Group, Guomao Real Estate, and Xiangyu Real Estate have increased by more than 20%.
In addition, it is worth noting that the sales threshold of the top 100 real estate sales enterprises in 2023 will continue to move downward, and the thresholds of each echelon will drop to the lowest in recent years. The top 10 real estate companies have maintained a high level of development resilience, and the sales amount threshold is 1613700 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35%；The changes in the pattern of TOP20 and TOP30 echelon real estate enterprises have intensified, and the thresholds have decreased by 25 year-on-year respectively4% and 252% to 5990 billion and 379400 million yuan;The TOP50 threshold is lowered by 209% to 234800 million yuan, the TOP100 threshold is reduced by 49% to 110400 million yuan;From the perspective of the number of "100 billion" real estate enterprises, in 2023, only 16 real estate companies will have a full-caliber scale of more than 100 billion yuan, and the number of 100 billion real estate enterprises will further decrease.
The amount of the top 100 real estate companies that acquired land fell by 6% year-on-year, and nearly half of them did not acquire land.
In terms of land acquisition, after experiencing the "halving" in 2022, the total amount of land acquired by real estate enterprises in 2023 will be 1,548.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. In addition, the total value of new goods and the total construction area of the top 100 real estate enterprises were 3,151.5 billion yuan and 133.59 million square meters, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 10% and 3%.
CRIC Research Center pointed out that the willingness of real estate companies to invest is still at a low level. In 2023, the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies will rebound to 021, but in terms of echelons, only the top 10 real estate companies in sales have a land-to-sales ratio of more than the average of the top 100 throughout the year, reaching 028, an increase of 006, compared with other echelons, the willingness to invest is the strongest. However, compared to before 2021, the level of investment is still significantly reduced. After the sale, the top 50 real estate companies have a land-to-sales ratio as low as 009, small and medium-sized real estate enterprises are still facing a great survival dilemma.
According to the land acquisition situation of different types of real estate enterprises throughout the year, the investment pattern of enterprises in 2023 will still maintain the pattern of "strong central state-owned enterprises, weak recovery of private enterprises, and gradual withdrawal of urban investment". Among the top 100 enterprises in terms of land acquisition, central state-owned enterprises are the absolute main force, although the number is small, but the amount accounts for a high proportion. Among them, the proportion of land acquired by central enterprises in 2023 will be close to 40% of the top 100, and the total proportion of local state-owned enterprises will reach 66%, while urban investment and private enterprises will only account for 14% and 20% respectively. However, in terms of quantity distribution, nearly half of the top 100 land acquisition amount in 2023 are urban investment enterprises, which are still an important force in stabilizing the land market, focusing on the top 100 real estate companies in sales, and the differentiation is more obvious, with nearly half of the enterprises investing stagnant in 2023, but there are still 25 real estate companies with a land acquisition amount of more than 10 billion, mainly central state-owned enterprises, and the amount of land acquired by some real estate enterprises has increased significantly compared with 2022.
It will take time for confidence to be restored.
CRIC Research Center believes that the current real estate industry is still in the risk clearance period, although the recent policy has been continuously optimized, released good, the regulator supports the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, and boosts market confidence, but it will take time for home buyer confidence and industry expectations to be restored.
January 2024 will usher in the off-season before the Spring Festival, and the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch the market will not be too high, the supply and demand expectations will be lower, and the month-on-month decline will continue, considering the low base in January 2023, the overall year-on-year will be flat or slightly decreased.
At the same time, CRIC Research Center expects that the main theme of cautious investment will continue into 2024, and the willingness to acquire land will remain weak until the two major factors affecting real estate investment, namely capital and expectations, do not improve significantly. Therefore, in the future, real estate investment will continue to diverge from two major trends:
From the perspective of cities, the land market will continue to operate at a low heat and continue to be differentiated, and in terms of city and land selection, the core land plots and complete supporting plots in first- and second-tier cities and urban areas will be more favored by real estate companies.
From the enterprise level, under the focus strategy, high-quality land reserves appear to be more scarce, combined with the loosening of land auctions in core cities, land auctions will return to marketization, and real estate companies will return to "fight strength" from the past "fighting luck" to "fighting strength", which puts forward higher requirements for the financial strength and operational strength of real estate enterprises, and the advantages of leading real estate enterprises in obtaining high-quality land plots will continue to expand, and the concentration of the industry may continue to rise and continue to differentiate.
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Article**: China Real Estate Network