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As time goes on, we find that the theme of the property market in 2023 is not a bailout. However, house prices have been all the way**. After entering 2024, all localities will increase their efforts to rescue the market, but the current real estate market has not yet gotten rid of the downturn. What are the reasons behind this?
We need to recognize the fact that the volatility of the real estate market is influenced by a variety of factors. These include the economic situation, policy regulation, demographic changes, etc. Therefore, it cannot simply be attributed to the result of the strict regulation in the early stage and the economic recession that led to three years.
In addition, we need to deeply analyze the current problems facing the real estate market and the reasons behind them. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic and other factors, some industries and enterprises are in trouble, which in turn affects the stability and development of the entire economy. On the other hand, some real estate companies have problems such as over-expansion and high leverage in the process of operation, resulting in a tight capital chain and difficulty in maintaining normal operations. All of these factors can lead to sluggish demand in the real estate market.
Since the launch of the residential commercialization reform in 1998, China's housing prices have always shown a steady growth trend. According to the latest data, the average house price in December 2023 is 9,600 yuan square meters, compared with 11,030 yuan square meters in 2021, a significant increase, but it is still very close to the 10,000 yuan mark, which undoubtedly makes people feel the pressure.
By the end of 2023, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents will reach 3920,000 yuan. Based on this calculation, the total disposable income of a family of three in a year is quite considerable, as high as 11760,000 yuan. However, when faced with a house price of 9,600 square meters, the amount required to buy a 100-square-meter three-bedroom apartment is as high as 960,000 yuan. This means that the family needs to work without eating or drinking about 82 years before you can buy a house in full. Internationally, it is generally accepted that a reasonable average house-price-to-income ratio should be between 3-5. In comparison, our country's 82 The house-price-to-income ratio is significantly high, which undoubtedly puts heavy economic pressure on residents.
It is worth mentioning that according to the in-depth survey statistics of the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, the average house-price-to-income ratio of 100 cities in the country is 92, and the average house-price-to-income ratio of 70 cities in the country is as high as 133。Especially in popular cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Sanya and Xiamen, the average house-price-to-income ratio has soared to a staggering 30 or more. This means that in these cities, a family needs to work hard for more than 30 years without food or drink to buy a house, which is undoubtedly a huge challenge to the quality of life of residents.
It can be seen that the problem of housing prices has become a heavy burden in the lives of Chinese residents. Housing prices are seriously high, which undoubtedly tells us that there is a certain bubble in the market.
In fact, with the increase in housing prices in the past two years, the property market control policy has been the focus of public attention from relaxation to bailout. One view is that house price cuts are mainly for the benefit of the rich, and that the poor are still unaffordable. This view reflects the complexity of the housing price issue, which is not just a numbers game, but also a matter of social equity and well-being.
On the face of it, falling house prices seem to be more beneficial to the poor. However, the fluctuation of housing prices not only affects home buyers, but also affects the stability of the real estate market and the healthy development of the national economy. In the context of the unpredictable global economic situation, the stability of the real estate market is of vital significance to the smooth operation of the national economy.
A careful study of the property market policies in recent months shows that the state is seeking a balance between curbing excessively fast housing prices** and meeting reasonable housing demand. **By improving the efficiency of bank lending and providing financial support to developers, it aims to alleviate the financial pressure on the real estate market and ensure the smooth progress of the project. For example, at the beginning of 2024, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently convened a meeting on the deployment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. The meeting stressed the need to quickly and effectively implement the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to promote the development and construction of real estate projects.
On the one hand, it is necessary to vigorously improve the efficiency of bank loan issuance, ensure that sufficient financial support is provided for developers, and inject strong impetus into the healthy development of the real estate market. On the other hand, the power of regulation and control should be more precisely given to local cities, so that they can formulate more targeted policies and measures according to the actual situation of their respective cities, and truly implement policies according to local conditions and cities.
In other words, the rescue efforts are increasing, delegating the power of regulation and control to local cities, allowing local conditions, aiming to better adapt to the actual situation of different regions and achieve precise regulation, that is, the local government has greater rights. For example, in 2024, hot cities such as Guangzhou, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Suzhou will relax their purchase restriction policies, which makes many people worry that housing prices will rise sharply in 2024. It is not unreasonable for people to have such worries, after all, in the past, the trend of housing prices rose sharply after the introduction of the bailout policy.
However, the author believes that it will be difficult for housing prices to rise sharply in 2024. The reason is simple, people's confidence in the property market is gradually weakening, more and more people are bearish on housing prices, and real estate is gradually returning to its most primitive residential function. In addition, the introduction of the bailout policy just reveals the current difficult situation of the property market. However, considering the current policy policy of "housing for living, not speculation", it is difficult for local rescue measures to make substantial breakthroughs while stabilizing the property market, assisting the real estate industry to tide over difficulties, and protecting the rights and interests of home buyers. This means that for investors, the era of comprehensive relaxation of purchase restrictions and large-scale bailouts has disappeared. Therefore, in the current property market environment, even if various localities launch rescue policies, the impact on the overall trend of the real estate market is limited. In some areas where housing prices are too high, there is still a possibility of downward adjustment. However, for those first- and second-tier cities that continue to attract population inflows, housing demand will continue to rise as the population grows, and housing prices will naturally rise.
In addition, with the continuous advancement of the bailout policy, the need to buy a house in 2024 may face 3 "good news":
1. The rights and interests of home buyers will be protected, and most of the current rescue policies are promoting the "guaranteed delivery" policy, which means that more real estate will resume work and be delivered in 2024, which is the best news for the owners who have purchased these real estates;
2. With the introduction of various rescue policies, the market will become more and more conducive to buyers who just need to buy houses, and the cost of buying a house will also be substantial;
3. People who have not yet bought a house can rest assured, and the stable house price trend is conducive to buyers who just need to buy a house, not only do they not have to worry about the house price continuing to be unaffordable, but they also don't have to worry about the house price of buying a house.
In fact, from a certain point of view, the introduction of these bailout policies is a positive signal for buyers with rigid demand. Only by ensuring the stable development of the property market can the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers be effectively protected.