After former Philippine security services announced that they would send troops to quell the insurgency after former Rodrigo Duterte threatened to lead the independence of the Mindanao region in the south of the country. At the same time, Brawner, the top leader of the Philippine military, rushed to the Mindanao region at night to take over military power and was ready to take force to suppress it at any time.
According to the Philippines, Philippine adviser Eduardo Arnault said in a statement that it will resolutely use "authority and force" to fight any action that attempts to defend the Philippines' sovereignty and territorial integrity, and explicitly referred to the emergence of calls for independence in Mindanao, warning that it could undermine peace and development in the region.
Duterte and his family were not directly named in the statement, but it was widely seen as a response to his recent actions. As Marcos Jr. tried to prolong his family's rule in Philippine politics through constitutional amendments, the political alliance between the Marcos family and the Duterte family collapsed, and the relationship between the two sides broke down completely.
After two successive political rallies, former Filipino Rodrigo Duterte spoke in Davao City, his traditional territory of Mindanao, calling on Marcos Jr. to resign from his post and threatening to support the independence movement in Mindanao to achieve the region's independence from the Philippines peacefully.
Duterte's remarks as a former public supporter of the state have caused widespread controversy in the Philippines.
Philippine adviser Eduardo Arnaud threatened military repression, the top leader of the Philippine military, Chief of General Staff Brawner, personally went to the Mindanao area to inspect the army's 10th Infantry Division, 101st Infantry Brigade and other troops stationed there, and asked the army to maintain unity and be vigilant against enemy infiltration. During his visit to the Eastern Mindanao Command in Davao City, he stressed the importance of "there is only one Philippines."
Brawner's move is aimed at unifying the thinking of the local garrison, ensuring that no troops will support Duterte's claims, and conveying a determination to unleash force on the Duterte family to suppress it. While it is an important duty of the security services to prevent the state**, the Philippine security services may have had other motives for supporting Marcos Jr. so explicitly in this incident.
First, Marcos Jr. is diplomatically friendly to the United States, and the military and police are the main supporters of the Filipino faction, so the United States may have played a key role in this.
Second, the Marcos family and its allies currently control most of the House of Representatives and most of the departments, which allows them to fight for more for the uniformed force.
Recently, Marcos Jr. approved the "New Horizon 3" plan proposed by the military, agreeing to allocate about 2 trillion Philippine pesos over the next 10 years for the purchase of new ** equipment to promote the modernization of the Philippine army. In this case, the Philippine military is naturally willing to support Marcos Jr.
At the same time, Marcos Jr.'s side took action in parliament, and several lawmakers issued a joint statement calling for an investigation into Rep. Alvarez of North Davao 1, who is associated with Lao Du, and considering whether to remove him.
Although Duterte's side has not made any new moves for the time being, his announcement of the decision to lead Mindanao's independence should be able to foresee a resolute response from Marcos Jr. and the military. However, what may have surprised Lao Du was the reaction of local politicians in Mindanao.
The governors of six provinces under the Pansamoro Autonomous Region in western Mindanao have issued statements opposing Mindanao's independence and calling for unity.
This phenomenon arises partly because independence may have an impact on the economic development of the Mindanao region, and partly because the autonomous region is the product of a compromise between the Philippines** and the Moro opposition forces.
After decades of armed conflict, the local Moro people have gained autonomy and are reluctant to be re-entangled in war. However, the opposition of the six governors and the threats from the security services do not mean that Lao Du's claim for independence has completely failed.
Still, Mindanao remains the region with the most pronounced independence tendencies within the Philippines, with the latest poll data showing much lower support for Marcos Jr.** than in places like Manila.
As a local political leader, Lao Du is the only person in the history of the Philippines to be born in Mindanao**. His daughter Sarah's status as deputy ** has not been affected either, and the Duterte family still has some influence in the Mindanao region. So far, politicians in Mindanao's other five districts have not launched a large-scale attack on Lao Du's claim to independence.
Therefore, if the differences between the two sides on the issue of constitutional amendment cannot be bridged, Lao Du will carry out his threats, which will be a serious test for Marcos Jr.'s side.
Although it may seem easy to send troops to quell the chaos, if the situation escalates to the point of using force, it will inevitably lead to chaos in the Philippines. Even if it doesn't turn into a civil war, there are still active separatist and even terrorist forces in Mindanao that could take advantage of the opportunity to cause trouble. At that point, geopolitical affairs such as the situation in the South China Sea, China-Philippines relations, and US-Philippines relations could all be affected.
This also explains why Marcos Jr.'s countermeasures are more inclined to use deterrence than direct action against Lao Du or his family. The rivalry between the two political families is expected to continue until next year's midterm elections in the Philippines, when one side may concede defeat and retreat into the background for the next opportunity.