Although the KMT suffered defeats in three consecutive elections** in 2016, 2020 and 2024, it performed quite well in the local elections, in the 2018 and 2022 elections. Especially in 2022, the Kuomintang won 14 of the 22 counties and cities in Taiwan, and 4 counties and cities in the "six capitals". This is a good harvest.
In 2026, nine of the 14 KMT-ruled counties and cities will be unable to re-serve because they have already served two consecutive terms. Among them are Hou Youyi of New Taipei City, Lu Xiuyan of Taichung City, etc. These county mayors who have performed well and have been recognized may not be strong enough, which will affect the continuation of the government.
First of all, what has attracted much attention is to continue the ruling power of New Taipei City, the most populous large vote warehouse in Taiwan. In fact, Hou Youyi has always enjoyed the leading support rate in Taiwan because of his pragmatic and less words and more deeds before participating in **. But after the defeat in **, he was a little discouraged, and his approval rating also dropped sharply. According to the aforementioned article, Taipei City Vice Mayor Li Sichuan, New Taipei City Vice Mayor Liu Heran, and Kuomintang Caucus Secretary Hong Mengkai were all nominated to run. Considering that Huang Guochang of the People's Party and Su Qiaohui of *** may run for election, these two competitors are quite powerful, so it is difficult for the Kuomintang in New Taipei City to guarantee a steady victory.
Taichung City has been in power for eight consecutive years, and Lu Xiuyan has shown medium strength. At present, the main candidates nominated are Jiang Qichen, "vice president of the Legislative Yuan," and Yang Qiongying, who has participated in the "Legislative Yuan" election many times and was arranged by Lu Xiuyan to be the vice mayor of the Taichung City Government. Previous analyses have shown that their chances of winning are relatively high, so I won't repeat them here.
In addition to the two major cities of New Taipei City and Taichung City, other KMT-ruling counties and cities that need to be replaced in the election include Hsinchu County, Changhua County, Yunlin County, Chiayi City, Yilan County, Hualien County and Taitung County. Regardless of governance, new candidates need to be found to run for election.
Although the KMT's support among young and middle voters is not high, the support rate of women is not low, especially in recent years, when it attaches importance to the propaganda of "female power", and there are indeed a number of outstanding female local leaders who have stood out, such as female county mayors who have been elected for two consecutive terms, such as Yilan County Mayor Lin Zimiao, Hualien County Mayor Xu Zhenwei, Taitung County Mayor Rao Qingling, Changhua County Mayor Wang Huimei, Yunlin County Mayor Zhang Lishan and Chiayi Mayor Huang Minhui. Among them, Hualien County Magistrate Xu Zhenwei is Fu Kunqi's wife, the couple has been managing Hualien County for 16 consecutive years, and it is also unique in Taiwan.
According to Taiwan** reports, in Yunlin County, the Zhang family is very powerful, and after the current county magistrate Zhang Lishan's term ended, her niece Zhang Jiajun was listed by the Kuomintang as a candidate for "non-district legislator" in 2024, and was successfully elected to the Legislative Yuan, and is expected to succeed her aunt Zhang Lishan in 2026 to run for Yunlin County magistrate.
In Changhua County, the current county magistrate Wang Huimei's term has ended, and Xie Yifeng, a "legislator" from Changhua, has been performing well, and has been preparing for the election of county magistrate, and is expected to run in 2026.
In Taitung County, the current chairman of the county council is Wu Xiuhua of the Kuomintang, who was nominated to replace Taitung County Mayor Rao Qingling, and has a high probability of winning the election.
In Hualien County, after Xu's term ended, there were doubts that her husband, Fu Kunqi, would run again, which could turn into a "two-man turn" similar to Putin and Medvedev. In addition, Wei Jiaxian, who has been elected as a county councillor for four consecutive terms, is also one of the KMT candidates who have attracted much attention.
As for Chiayi City, Huang Minhui is considered a blue-green take-all, which also made her a winner in the 2018 and 2022 elections. However, Chiayi's blue camp is not significantly higher than the green camp, and if the KMT fails to put forward a similar blue-green take-all candidate, the pressure for re-election could be high.
For Yilan County, Lin Zimiao is also considered to be blue-green all-inclusive, and Yilan County's basic market has even surpassed the Kuomintang. Therefore, it remains to be seen how the KMT will choose its candidates to hold Yilan County.
Hsinchu County Mayor Yang Wenke has been in power since 2018, and possible candidates include two stronger "legislators" Lin Siming and Xu Xinying, as well as the current deputy county magistrate Chen Jianxian.
In addition to these 9 KMT-ruling counties and cities that need to be replaced, there are also 5 new county mayors who will be appointed in 2022, which are not expected to be replaced halfway through and will continue to run for re-election, including Taipei Mayor Jiang Wanan, Taoyuan Mayor Zhang Shanzheng, Keelung Mayor Xie Guoliang, Nantou County Mayor Xu Shuhua and Lianjiang County Mayor Wang Zhongming.
It should be pointed out that although Miaoli County Mayor Zhong Dongjin is non-party, he is inclined to the blue camp, and it remains to be seen whether he will rejoin the KMT in the future and run for 2026 on behalf of the KMT.
In addition to the above-mentioned 15 counties and cities in charge of the blue camp, there are also 7 county mayors, among which Gao Hongan of Hsinchu City and Chen Fuhai of Kinmen County are the People's Party, Gao Hongan is a product of the blue and white cooperation in 2022, and there have been scandals in power for a year, so the KMT is expected to turn the situation around in 2026; The relationship between Chen Fuhai and the People's Party is still unclear, and even Ke Wenzhe went to Kinmen during the ** period, but Chen Fuhai did not come to the scene to help in the election, which may only be because he hated the Kuomintang and *** at the same time to join the People's Party. Overall, Kinmen's blue camp foundation is definitely greater than that of the green camp, and there is no need to worry about this.
The remaining five counties and cities are in power, including Chen Guangfu of Penghu County, who is expected to run again after narrowly defeating the KMT's Lai Fengwei by less than 2,000 votes. Pingtung County's Kuomintang Su Qingquan won 206,460 votes, less than 217537 votes of Zhou Chunmi, it is worth mentioning that Pingtung County has always been the largest vote base, but Su Qingquan's performance is good, and he is expected to run again in 2026. Chiayi County, Kaohsiung City and Tainan City are the toughest constituencies, and Wang Yumin, Ke Zhien and Xie Longjie are expected to compete fiercely. Among them, Xie Longjie is the most likely to win, while Wang Yumin and Ke Zhien can only close the gap at most, increasing the vote rate to 45%, and even if they lose, they will not be so embarrassed.
On the whole, if the Kuomintang can make a rational layout, 11 of the 14 counties and cities will be relatively stable, and 3 counties and cities will remain to be seen. It remains to be seen whether the blue camp will be able to return without party membership; 1-2 of the other 7 counties and cities may be flipped, so in the end, the blue camp is expected to get 12-16 counties and cities.
This article details Taiwan's 2026 county and mayoral elections, including the KMT's candidates and competition in different regions.
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