How difficult is the property market at this stage, let's look at a set of data first.
In 2022, the sales area of new homes has dropped by 24% compared with the previous year, and I was looking forward to a turnaround in the property market in 2023 by taking advantage of the end of the epidemic and economic recovery, but I did not expect that the annual sales area will drop by 8 compared with 20225%。In this way, the sales area has dropped by nearly 40% compared to 2021. Of course, this data is not accurate, the reason is that many debt thunderstorm real estate companies still have tens of billions of sales, obviously, most of them are not sold, but work, so the actual sales area should be much lower than the official data.
It can be seen that so many policies to support the property market have been introduced to allow everyone to buy a house, and many people are just unmoved. In the face of such a situation, many people are more anxious, but the most anxious is the bank.
We all know that the number of real estate companies in the past two years has not declined significantly, and the sales volume has suddenly dropped by 4 percent, but its own debt has not been reduced, how can the company operate normally? For many real estate companies, without funds, the house cannot be built, the employees cannot live, and the money from the business and the bank cannot be repaid. Among them, if other money developers can lie down and play tricks, then the bank is naturally the most unable to sit still and the most anxious. Why?
The data shows that in 2022, the balance of real estate bad debts in the four major banks of industry and agriculture will increase by 60% over the previous year, creating a history of nearly 10 years, as for 2023, although the relevant data has not yet been released, in fact, we should have a rough idea in our hearts, the sales of real estate companies have dropped so much, the operating costs are high, and there are only a few who can repay the loans. Therefore, in the past two years, the most shouted is to control financial risks and prevent systemic financial risks, and everyone knows what industry risks are mainly talking about.
It's useless for banks to be in a hurry, they have to find out what is the root cause of this round of property market adjustment for two and a half years? Then you can prescribe the right medicine.
Some people say that the number of births has decreased, others say that income has decreased, others say that there is a real estate bubble, and so on. These reasons seem to be reasonable, but they don't stand up to scrutiny.
For example, the number of birthsIn 2021 and 2022, there will be a total decrease of 2.14 million compared with 2023, but the sales area of commercial housing will decrease by 700 million square meters, which is equivalent to 7 million fewer houses sold according to a set of 100 square meters, but according to the calculation of a family of 3, the decrease in population is only 710,000 houses, accounting for only 1 10 of the number of less units sold. What's more, who said that you have to prepare a house when you are born, so the impact of short-term population reduction on property sales is basically negligible.
And what about income? There should be an impact, but the main reason is not. We can think about it the other way, if you clearly feel that the house behind you is going to rise sharply, you have to do a whole set even if you smash the pot and sell iron, right? To put it bluntly, the expectations are unclear and I don't dare to start.
As for the real estate bubble or something, it's really hard to measure. Let's take the United States and Japan as examples, everyone has experienced the epidemic, but from the epidemic to the present, housing prices have risen in two waves, and the cumulative increase in the average price of houses in the United States should be 4%, while in Japan, the housing prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area have not only hit a record high, but also have a further growth trend. The economy is just like that, some economists say that it is the reason for the over-issuance of money, but do we still print less money? In both years, double-digit growth has been carried out, but prices are falling, and house prices are not rising.
Therefore, the above reasons are not the fundamental reasons for the continuous and deep adjustment of the property marketIn fact, you only need to sort out the line of property market adjustment. Since January 1, 2021, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission began to implement the "three red lines" for real estate, starting from the very strict financing restrictions on real estate enterprises, it is basically difficult for real estate companies to raise funds, and the curtain of reducing the leverage of real estate enterprises has opened. Who knows what that means for the highly cash-dependent real estate industry?
A few months later, that is, from the second half of 2021, the real estate industry began to take a sharp turn, with new home sales falling sharply year after year, and the average price of second-hand houses in the country for more than 20 consecutive months, keeping pace with this wave of downward leverage for real estate companies. At that time, how to curb the leverage of real estate companies to make the market extremely contracted, today we must use much greater strength to correct and recover. Whether it is the first-tier city of Guangzhou, which has relaxed purchase restrictions, many cities have begun to implement the transformation of urban villages, or measures such as reducing mortgage interest rates and reducing down payments, it cannot be said that it is ineffective, but compared with real estate companies to rebuild market confidence and re-infuse a large number of "blood transfusions" for real estate companies, it is undoubtedly a big deal.
The problems that we ordinary researchers can see, the country can naturally see clearly。Considering that the market has the risk of further decline, and may even trigger systemic financial risks, a few days ago, multi-department joint action, released a "nuclear bomb" level of measures, which is to give real estate enterprises enough financial measures, from the published information, mainly from two aspects: one is operating property loans, two is direct docking to meet the financing of real estate enterprises.
Online though relatedThere are many interpretations of information, but there are still few that take out the potential impact and analyze it, so let's simply translate it in the vernacular:
1.According to the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Management of Operating Property Loans" issued by the Central Bank and the State Administration of the Financial Authority, it can be seen that for real estate enterprises with good operating assets, including complexes, shopping malls, office buildings and other property assets, national commercial banks can issue loans to repay the debts of real estate enterprises, and give a time limit, this requirement will be completed by the end of 2024, in fact, it is to tell real estate enterprises and banks to act quickly.
In fact, after years of expansion, many real estate companies have relatively high-quality operating assets all over the country, but they have suffered from not giving loans for a long time, and the interest rate is also high, and now they are open to loans. You must know that the loan for operating property assets is far longer than the development loan (generally within 3 years), which can be loaned for 10-15 years, and the interest rate is low, which is actually equivalent to giving you a long-term low-interest loan with a high amount, allowing you to resolve your debts, and repay loans and bonds.
Just imagine, if the loan is released early, many real estate companies may not be thunderous, of course, it is not too late to make amends, indicating that many high-quality real estate companies will come back to life and get back on the road. Some people may have a concern that these loans cannot be used for real estate companies to acquire land for construction. In fact, let's imagine that if the real estate company obtains an operating loan to repay the debt, then the new sales will not be freed up, and it is okay to do anything, including taking land. It can be expected that after more than two years of suffering, some high-quality real estate companies will gallop into the land market again.
2.The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that it will speed up the implementation of real estate financing policies to support real estate development. The whitelist of real estate enterprise financing is likely to be implemented by the end of this month, and loans will be issued. At the same time as the whitelist was determined, the loan was also disbursed. You can imagine that we have to review hundreds of thousands of loans for a long time before we make the payment, and a project of real estate companies is hundreds of millions or billions at every turn, and they will be directly issued in place, which means that the intermediate process should be a green light for the whole process. Therefore, the China Real Estate Newspaper sponsored by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development used the headline "Unprecedented".
Why so fast? It lies in the word "due diligence and exemption", in the words of an insider quoted in a report by China Real Estate News, two paragraphs:
The person familiar with the matter revealed a major information, this financial support is directly aimed at specific projects, which is equivalent to opening the real estate credit "watershed", for the previous financial institutions "dare not act", the senior leaders of this meeting are directly to give a "strong shot": included in the white list due diligence exemption! In other words, it is 35 cities across the country, whether it is a company or a project, a company of any nature, a company of any ownership, as long as the project is good, the project needs, and meets the standards and conditions, after the declaration, it will be reviewed by the local competent department and entered the white list. The message to the market at this meeting was: Get real! Place to do it boldly!It can be seen that the country has made an unprecedented determination to restore the real estate market this time。Solving the financial problem of real estate enterprises is actually solving the capital needs of the property market. Real estate enterprises can build a good building to ensure delivery, and they can have funds to re-acquire land to help the land market and contribute to local finance. As for home buyers, seeing the decrease in the phenomenon of unfinished buildings and the heating up of the land market, they are more confident to buy a house, and I believe that it will not be long before people's expectations begin to change.
There is no doubt that the property market has stabilized and picked up, and three types of people are the first to benefit。One is the developer; The second is the bank, because after the developer is resurrected, the bank's loan can also be repaid, and there are a lot of bad debts, but this time the increase is not a real profit; The third is the real estate holders who stand guard, especially those who buy houses around 2021, at that time, many of them are leveraged into the sales office lottery, ** buy on the top of the mountain, after more than two years of market decline, the community ** has been over-falling. When the market recovers, these new communities are also easy to be faster.