The last few days before the Spring Festival, just like the sun after a blizzard, the warmth of the earth makes people forget the cold of the year for a while, and enter the new year with a little hope. Shareholders have returned some blood, although there is still a little distance from returning to the capital, but they may have been unable to help but think about such a question in their hearts: Is the bull market coming? Should I buy something after the holiday?
GJD pulled the banner to play the cards, and a set of combination punches came down, so that the ** who followed also got some benefits. Two days before the Spring Festival, the village chief who performed poorly was replaced, and the new village chief took office to work overtime, and also came up with some means, knocked out some violations, calmed the market sentiment, and continued to release warmth.
Although it remains to be seen whether this warmth can continue, after all, it is the will of the country, and it has won several battles, which is still full of expectations. In fact, from the perspective of the internal and external situation, there is indeed a need for a bull market.
From the inside:
1) The rapid economic growth has come to an end, real estate and interest rates are in a downward cycle, and the people need a channel to obtain a certain amount of property income. After several years of accumulation, some listed companies have the ability to continue to pay dividends, and also have the basis for relatively safe investment. A bull market solves the problem of increasing the value of residents' spare funds, and shareholders have the confidence to consume after obtaining income, which is helpful for stimulating domestic demand and alleviating the current economic predicament.
2) From the perspective of enterprise investment, in the context of Sino-US decoupling, if there is no prosperity in the secondary market, the desire of the primary market to support emerging industries will also be reduced, and the support will not be sufficient, which will affect the competitiveness of high-end industries in the future in the long run. In addition, the main financing channel of Chinese enterprises in the past was borrowing, and the overall debt ratio was relatively high, and a positive cycle was beneficial to both enterprises and investors.
3) From the perspective of local government, the income from land sales has decreased, and the pressure on local debt repayment is not small, on the one hand, it depends on possible fiscal and tax reforms, and on the other hand, the incremental funds brought by a bull market are also conducive to revitalizing some assets in the hands of local governments.
From an external point of view, the downward cycle of the US dollar is relatively close, and at this time, if the A-share cooperation is **, foreign capital will take advantage of the dip to make a bottom, which is equivalent to a gift package to US dollar capital. At this time, shorting A shares is not much different from **.
These are just some of my personal opinions. After the accumulation of previous years, many of them have the ability to continue to pay dividends, in the context of economic slowdown, the expansion of enterprises has slowed down, and the ability to increase dividends has been available, and there is a safer investment foundation. If it can be added to the improvement of the ** system, the structural bull market is worth looking forward to.
There is some truth to this, but at the same time, I am also reminding myself that many of these positive changes in my heart may be brought about by the three long white candles. This series of measures by GJD before the Spring Festival has some effect in the short term, but it has not yet solved the fundamental problem of this market, which may be a beginning, in fact, nothing has changed, but it has ignited the hope in the hearts of many shareholders.
Some hopes lead us to success, while others lead us to the abyss. Let reason lead and don't be fooled by hope. Whether you want to increase your chips, the core still depends on "good company + good **", if you can, give a good system.
I don't know if the good companies you pay attention to have reached a good **, some of the companies I pay attention to have not yet reached an ideal **, so I was a little happy when I continued to kill sharply on February 5th, thinking that I would take advantage of the pre-holiday days to kill a wave, and the opportunity came out. This idea may be a bit harsh.
The anchor point is the intrinsic value, and it will come back sooner or later, so don't care about the change in the account number in the short term, but to see if the number of the account is low enough, just a signal, a tool, don't be phased. Downside, desperation in the market leads to cheaper chips, which are more valuable than just a few days.
Look at two sets of data:
Group 1: As of February 8, 2024, the total market capitalization of the Shanghai Stock Exchange** is about 44500 million, ** total market capitalization of about 267 trillion, the total of the two cities is 712 trillion. The total market value of the two cities** is about 24 trillion.
* It is also a bit small in front of the total market capitalization, and the original shareholders do not know how many cheap chips they still have in their hands. ）
Group 2: The balance of residents' savings deposits at the end of 2023 will be about 138 trillion yuan, and the new deposits will be 16 in that year67 trillion.
These savings will also be used for necessary daily expenses, including food, drink, and lazar, medical care, education, debt repayment, etc., and it is estimated that there is not much left. ）
Using these two sets of data is to simply illustrate: we think that buying ** is to buy a company, and there are indeed many people who sincerely sell the company, and the moment many companies go public is the time when the value is the highest, and then it is constantly cashing out, plus hollowing out the value of the company, and then leaving the empty shell to the market. Now the market value of the two cities, many of them are cheap chips of the original shareholders, if there is no actual performance support, it is just a book number, waiting for you to exchange real gold.
To sum up, there may still be a lot of garbage in the market, and you must find it with your heart, and don't follow the hype with hope like a dream bubble. The country needs a bull market, which should be a bull market in which the value of core assets returns, not a market-wide carnival. When the market improves, there are still many practical problems that need to be solved.
So what are core assets? It can be looked at from two perspectives: stock and increment
From the perspective of stock, it is an asset that is inseparable from the national economy and people's livelihood, has a relatively stable model, has a basically established market position, and can continue to create excess cash flow.
From the perspective of increment, it is a scientific and technological asset that represents new quality productivity for the future and can put the country in an advantageous position in the future international competition.
Another direction to watch is the opportunities presented by the US dollar's rate-cutting cycle, such as commodities. You must know that the dollar rate cut cycle will always come, it is only a matter of time. Walk by, don't turn around and forget about some basic things.
The reform and opening up of that year opened an era of high growth, and decades have passed, and we have stepped into the threshold of medium and low growth. Every era has opportunities in each era, and in this new era, opportunities are in **? It's worth thinking about for each of us, whether it's investment, work or life.
We who are accustomed to being fast may need to learn to slow down, slow does not mean backwardness and regression, slow represents more focused, more down-to-earth, more stable, and the same is true for investment. Choose core assets, do pro-cyclical things, be a friend of time, slow is fast.
The question of whether to increase positions after the Spring Festival is actually very simple, and it is still the principle as always: focus on yourself, do not follow the trend of speculation, and do not be moved by short-term interests. I play mine based on my own circle of ability, according to my own routine, do not participate in what I don't understand, and don't blindly follow what I don't grasp.
Since the beginning of the new year, the sun has come out, Shenzhen is as warm and comfortable as spring, and yesterday I went to Guangming with my family to see the rape flowers:
The little bees here are really all year round, and they come out to collect nectar at this time. When we celebrate the Spring Festival, there are also many hard-working friends like little bees who are providing a lot of help for our happiness, such as taxi drivers, takeaway brothers, catering and scenic service staff, etc., who have worked hard for them. In real life, being a hard-working little bee can increase the reward, but in **, being lazy often gets better results. The difference is that the probability of hard work being rewarded is almost 100%, but the probability of buying and selling is much smaller, and the probability is reduced a little bit with each move.
See the world, positive and negative, good and bad, everything has yin and yang, so don't think about problems in one direction, don't be a hard-working little bee on the business. Take myself as an example, when I was a little bee in the past, I had the impression that the probability of making money was only 30% or even lower, and it was better to throw a coin, and today, the probability of success is about 90%. Isn't it amazing? In fact, there are two secrets: one is that the number of shots is less, and the other is that the holding time has become longer.
*There are also a lot of investments with a probability of almost 100% of the money, but we covet that little more odds and don't choose. For example, there are some good dividends on A-shares, and the performance is also very stable, but there is a lack of imagination in the future, and many people are unwilling. There are also some companies that have certain growth, but the growth rate is relatively slow, and many people are not willing to wait. In the above two cases, I believe that many of us can find out the corresponding target.
A good company is good, simple standards can make people invincible in long-term investment, but sticking to simplicity is not an easy task for most people, and we will talk about this topic another day.
Finally, I wish you all a prosperous, simple and happy 2024.