Recently, there has been a lot of uproar about the confrontation between Texas and the federal ** armed forces.
There are even many people who believe that this incident will trigger a second civil war in the United States.
For the event itself, the likelihood of triggering a second civil war is low.
However, this incident also exposed the extremely serious problem of domestic rift in the United States, and even did not rule out the possibility of a second civil war breaking out one day in the future.
Through this article, let's sort out the ins and outs of this incident and analyze the follow-up development trend together.
The cause of this incident is the problem of illegal immigration.
Geographically, Texas is located in the southern part of the United States, bordering Mexico.
It has the longest border with Mexico of any U.S. state.
The border is about 2,000 kilometers long.
This is shown in the figure below.
The long border has created a serious problem of illegal immigration.
The U.S. Federal Border Patrol reportedly made 24 arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border in December 202390,000 people, up from 19 in November10,000 increased by 31%, up from 22 in December 202220,000 people, an increase of 13 per cent.
Add to that the number of fish that slipped through the net without being apprehended, and it is conservatively estimated that at least 3 million people entered the United States illegally last year.
Of those, the vast majority went to Texas.
The entry of these illegal immigrants into Texas is bound to seriously increase the instability of society.
Therefore, Texas** has always been very resolute in its attitude of cracking down on illegal immigrants.
Back in 2021, Governor Greg Abbott launched a campaign to strengthen border security, called Operation Lone Star.
As a result of this operation, Texas installed a large number of barbed wire fences along the border and added thousands of National Guard soldiers to patrol the border.
On December 18, 2023, Governor Abbott signed another bill, abbreviated as SB-4.
SB-4 is arguably the toughest law against illegal immigrants in the United States.
This bill defines crossing the border as illegal and allows local and state police to arrest people suspected of crossing the border illegally.
Penalties range from misdemeanors to felonies, ranging from fines to imprisonment for up to $2,000 and up to 20 years for repeat illegal entry.
As soon as the bill was enacted, it caused an uproar.
Biden, in particular, was the first to jump out against it.
Because immigration has always been Biden's political weakness, he has faced fierce criticism from Republicans and even some members of his own party over the situation on the U.S.-Mexico border.
The White House was quick to slam the new law, calling it "incredibly extreme."
The U.S. Department of Justice also considered the measure to be "a violation of the U.S. Constitution" and potentially interfere with the ability of the federal government to enforce immigration laws.
As a result, Biden filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene.
On January 22, the ** official approved Biden's request with 5 votes in favor and 4 votes against.
The U.S. Border Patrol, an authorized federal agency, can cut or remove barbed wire fences set up by the Texas National Guard at the border.
However, the ruling sparked a backlash from Texas.
Governor Abbott issued a public statement on the 25th, slamming Biden**'s border protection policy and releasing the Texas National Guard's new barbed wire fence along the river.
The move does not appear to violate the Supreme Court's order, which only authorizes the federal** to dismantle existing barbed wire, but makes no mention of adding a ban on the deployment of new barbed wire.
It also prohibits federal** from entering Texas territory.
Meanwhile, 25 Republican governors issued a joint statement of solidarity with Texas.
This puts Biden in an embarrassing situation.
Many Democrats put pressure on Biden to take a tougher stance against Texas.
Eventually, things got bigger and bigger, and even raised fears among some Americans about a second civil war.
In another inconspicuous trifle, on January 26, Biden** announced the suspension of LNG export approvals, and these gas export terminals "happen" to be mostly located in Texas.
I don't believe it when I say that this has nothing to do with immigration.
However, the immigration issue is actually only a symptom, and the root cause of all things is still the [partisanship] of the United States.
In fact, on the issue of immigration, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are extremely divided.
Republicans advocate severe restrictions on immigration admission.
During Trump's reign, he also built a high wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, known as the "Trump Wall".
Democrats, on the other hand, advocate encouraging immigration.
He has turned a blind eye to illegal immigrants and often accused the Republican Party of being too harsh on immigration policies.
In this way, an immigration policy, which has a bearing on social stability and the vital interests of the people, has become a tool for bipartisan attacks.
The protagonist of this incident, Texas, is again the territory of the Republican Party.
Biden's attack on Texas' immigration policy can actually be seen as an attack by the Democratic Party on the Republican Party.
2024** is just around the corner, and this incident has become a bargaining chip for the two parties to pull votes from each other.
The outcome of the confrontation between Texas and the White House could have a significant impact on the US elections this year.
Therefore, the two sides do not give in.
At present, the standoff between Texas and Biden** continues.
But from the top, Biden is at a disadvantage.
According to a report released by rasmussenreports, a well-known polling company in the United States, on the 29th, 69% of potential voters support Texas' action against illegal immigrants, and 53% of them strongly support this action.
As a result, Biden also made corresponding adjustments.
Biden issued a statement on the 26th, urging both parties in Congress to pass a border reform plan that is compatible with the aid plan for Ukraine.
At the same time, he is willing to use the emergency powers granted to him on the day the bill is signed to close the border, which is overwhelmed by the flow of migrants.
However, Biden's statement is not actually a concession, but a disguised increase in his power.
Originally, Texas has already restricted illegal immigration very well, why do you need Biden to do it?
Moreover, the bill also includes a foreign aid bill of more than $100 billion.
Therefore, the Republican Party did not buy Biden's statement at all.
Trump has pressured allies to oppose the bill.
Therefore, Biden's chances of passing this bill are very slim.
Judging by the direction of the whole thing, it is now very beneficial for the Republican Party.
However, the decisive factors are very complex and cannot be controlled by one or two things.
This is just one of the influencing factors.
The final result depends on the development later.
However, one thing is certain, this incident is far from triggering a second civil war in the United States.
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