On February 2, 2024, New Delhi welcomed the second high-level meeting between the Maldives and India. After several rounds of intense negotiations, the two sides reached a high-profile agreement. Under the agreement, India agreed to complete the full removal of troops from the Maldives garrison by May 10, and the news quickly spread internationally. The inside story behind the agreement is thought-provoking.
From the Maldives' point of view, this is a diplomatic victory. The new ** Mouiz successfully negotiated with India through a firm stance and a strong statement, and completed the phased removal of troops on March 10 and May 10. This not only allowed Mouiz to fulfill his promise during the election, but also created favorable conditions for his party to win more seats in the upcoming parliament.
India's concessions are also based on a number of considerations. Muiz's predecessor was pro-India**, and there are also a large number of pro-India people in the Maldives. In the face of India, the hegemon of the Indian Ocean, Muiz's victory, although limited, at least won more diplomatic space for the Maldives. India's compromise in this negotiation also shows that power politics still dominates in reality.
India's attitude in the negotiations also revealed some problems. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's attempts to bend Moiz to India's will by exerting pressure have failed to achieve the desired results. Muiz's insistence and his diplomatic manoeuvres in China illustrate some of the challenges that India faces in regional leadership. Although India is a big country, in the 21st century, the threat of using force against its neighbors may lead to backlash, and this is an issue that India needs to seriously consider.
The specific terms of the agreement are also worth paying attention to. India agreed to complete the full removal of military personnel by 10 May, but with the wording "removal" rather than "withdrawal". This means that India may maintain some influence over the Maldives by sending retired personnel or civilians to continue operating in the Maldives in a non-military capacity. Muiz's compromise brought India to its knees in form, but in practice it still maintained a certain degree of existence.
While the agreement between the Maldives and India addresses immediate issues, it also highlights the complexities of regional and international politics. Muiz has won this game, and India is also facing a new test due to the change in the regional landscape. International politics is a dreamlike change, every negotiation is a challenge, and the agreement is an important piece in this complex game.
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