Recently, the copper market has shown a leading trend under the interweaving of long and short factors. Affected by the continued high interest rates in the United States, the volatility range of the metal** is viewed cautiously by the market. At the same time, the strong performance of the US dollar and the disappointed expectations of a Fed rate cut in March have further added to the uncertainty in the market. These macro factors not only delay expectations for the timing of the Fed's rate cuts, but also need to be wary of counterattacks from bears.
However, in a complex market environment, there are also some factors that support copper prices. The conflict in the Middle East has created uncertainty in the market, which is usually a positive boost to oil prices, which tend to have a positive correlation with copper prices. In addition, the continuous decline in overseas copper inventories and the disturbance of the mine end have not subsided, which have provided support for the stability of copper prices.
It is worth mentioning that the market still has certain expectations for China's possible new policies to stimulate the economy. This expectation is an important positive factor for copper prices, as economic stimulus policies usually lead to increased investment in areas such as infrastructure development, which in turn increases demand for raw materials such as copper.
On the industrial front, Chile's copper production in December 2023 fell by 02% to 49470,000 tons. State-owned copper miner Codelco saw an 8% year-on-year decline in output last year3%, while production from the Escondida and Collahuasi mines increased. Peru's Antamina copper-zinc mine is approved for expansion, extending its operating life to 2036 and strengthening Peru's position in the global copper market.
In the morning, the main Shanghai copper contract 2403 opened slightly lower, and as of 09:46, Shanghai copper ** fell and closed down 012%, the latest**68350 yuan ton. It is expected that copper prices will make up for the decline today**.
Based on the elaboration of the above factors, it is expected that copper prices will maintain the highest trend in the short term. The market needs to pay close attention to the movement of US interest rates, the direction of the US dollar, and the development of conflicts in the Middle East, which may have an impact on copper prices. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the policy trends of China** and the changes in overseas copper inventories and ore ends**. Against the backdrop of high overall market uncertainty, investors should remain cautious and respond flexibly to market changes.